Egypt's Political Turmoil Explained

Egypt's citizens snatched the headlines this week as a wave of political unrest took hold in a country with a history of human rights abuses and limits on democracy. To understand why people are protesting in the streets requires a bit of a crash course on the history of Egypt and, in particular, its political history.

Egypt gained independence from the British in the 1950s. Since then, the country has moved slowly toward democracy, but it has a long way to go despite building a strong relationship with the United States. Gamal Abdel Nasser was president from 1956 to 1970. Anwar Sadat replaced Nasser and led the country from 1970 until his assassination in 1981. Then current president, Hosni Mubarak, took office. Unless you count the single year of service for the country's first president, Egypt has had only three presidents since 1954.

Although Egypt has moved closer to democracy, much of the power still remains in the hands of the president, and the country's elections have been criticized in recent years. In 2005, Mubarak passed some laws to open elections to multiple candidates, but he also set it up so that no candidate with any real chance could run against him. Some of the most serious opposition candidates have been limited to running as independents because the new laws only recognize certain party's candidates (much like in the United States). The empty promises of democracy have angered some voters.

This year marks the most unstable period in Egypt's last 20 years. Mubarak is ill, and an election for a new president is set to take place in September. Mubarak's son is the likely victor. He is the choice of the country's leading party. But the legislature and the military are at odds in a power struggle. The military does not want the younger Mubarak to be the country's next leader.

Meanwhile, the public is still looking for real democracy and also does not want the younger Mubarak to coast to victory in September. The public is now protesting, and that's a product of the current climate in the country and the examples set by protesters in other Middle Eastern countries.

Here is how The New York Times described the impetus behind the current revolt among Egypt's citizenry:

"Earlier this month, entrenched autocracies seemed confident of their ability to ride out the protests. But, just two weeks ago, on Jan. 14, President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia fled abruptly into exile after weeks of protest and his departure emboldened demonstrators to take to the streets in other countries.

"Images of the lowly challenging the mighty have been relayed from one capital to the next, partly through the aggressive coverage of Al Jazeera, the Qatar-based satellite channel. Social networking sites such as Facebook and Twitter have given the protesters a potent weapon, enabling them to elude the traditional police measures to monitor and curb dissent. But various regimes have fallen back on a more traditional playbook, relying on security forces to face angry demonstrators on the streets."

With instability leading the day, lots of power-hungry groups are ready to jump into the fray. The Muslim Brotherhood represents a more religion-based approach to government and law, and the Brotherhood appears interested in aligning with the protesters. But the protesters are a more secular group, and their interests are not necessarily supported by the views of the Brotherhood.

Meanwhile, a more popular potential candidate is also joining the protests. Mohamed ElBaradei, who received the Nobel Peace Prize for his leadership of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has relocated to Egypt and appears to be the most likely victor in an open presidential election.

What happens in the next six months in Egypt will have a huge impact on the notion of real democracy in the Middle East. Egypt's importance in the region is significant. The country has the most successful economy in North Africa, and its strong relation with the United States places it high on the list of concerns for the Western world.

Sources
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/29/world/middleeast/29unrest.html?ref=middleeast

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/28/3123609.htm?section=world

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/5309.htm