Election 2008: Indiana, Red State?

As I was driving along the highway yesterday afternoon, I spotted something most unusual. Zooming along in the lane next to me was a truck with Indiana license plates, and a "Clinton/Obama 2008!" bumper sticker prominently displayed in the back window. However, I can't say I was surprised.

Indiana hasn't thrown its electoral support to the Democratic candidate since 1964. That's an eternity in the rules of politics. However, there is another rule: Things can change, and they can change quickly. Given the situation of the nation as of this writing, the future is unpredictable for this erstwhile 'Red State'.

Despite being branded as entirely Republican, Indiana has a strong history of electing and maintaining Democratic individuals. Evan Bayh (now the Democratic Senator from Indiana) and then Frank O'Bannon held the governorship in Democratic hands from 1989 to 2003, when Mr. O'Bannon died suddenly of a stroke. His lieutenant governor, Joe Kernan (also a Democrat) served until 2005, when Mitch Daniels, a Republican, was elected with only 55% of the vote. This event may turn out to be one of the great turning points for Indiana's political future.

Since his election, Mitch Daniels has proven to be widely unpopular, proposing laws, tax increases, and educational objectives that have been rejected by Democrats and Republicans alike. The list is long, ranging from the sale of the Indiana Toll Road to overseas owners, to the anti-alcohol attempts that led to many Indiana cars sporting the bumper sticker "My Can, Mitch!" or the less common "My Can, Bitch!" satirizing his own campaign slogan. All one has to do is wander Indiana for a few days, and one will detect a strong, growing, and violent opposition to Governor Daniels, with all buzz centered on the various Democrats lining up to unseat him in 2008.

Of course, the largest elephant in the room, so to speak, is the presidency of George W. Bush and the war in Iraq. Despite being a supposed GOP bastion, support for both the president and the war has fallen steadily in Indiana, culminating in the elections of 2006, when (to the shock of the nation and the pundits) Indiana voters toppled three sitting Republican members of the House of Representatives: Chris Chocola, John Hostettler, and Mike Sodrel. Hostettler's loss to Brad Ellsworth was 39% to 61%, the most lopsided outcome in the House for a decade. As we all know, the total results amounted to a complete Democratic takeover of Congress.

What does it all mean? In 2008, McCain, Romney, or Giuliani would do well not to write off Indiana as solidly within their fold. I've always felt that one of the best and most informal polls is bumper sticker observation, and, here in Indiana, Democratic 2008 bumper stickers are sprouting like flowers in the springtime rain. As for GOP bumper stickers, I've seen people trying to get their "W" bumper stickers off their cars at the car wash. My car, Mitch.