Election Rundown,

This election year is going to be quite the interesting year. It should be historical if I am correct. I made extensive spreadsheets to come to my conclusions using polls, religious/political/racial affiliation breakdowns per state, and worked with it to come up with a massive database.

In the 80's, we saw a ton of Democrats flock to Reagan's ideas of hope, ending the cold war, and tax cuts eventually coming off the elections winning 46 and 49 states, followed by his Vice President failing to do much aside from stop a crazy dictator from taking over another country. Next up we had Clinton winning an election only because a crazy billionaire decided to run and take a lot of votes from both parties.

Finally, somehow George Bush became president. Whether it be because of illegal voter fraud, the opposition failing to make itself look good, or Bush's coalition of people with a 4th grade education and crazy religious freaks, it unfortunately happened and we've had our country almost in ruins because of it.

Now we have a choice between the oldest man ever to run for president, and the first black man to win a party nomination.

I view as a choice between an old man who can't pronounce foreign leaders names, has frequent public blow-ups on the Senate floor, calls his wife a cunt when he gets angry, and makes racial slurs towards Asians because he was tortured there 40 years ago.

Or a younger charismatic black man who has lived his life seeking to help out poor people and fix inequality. He's a lawyer, wants change, has a crazy pastor and gets endorsed by the weirdest people. He is intelligent though.

In the absolute best case scenario for John Mccain (where you look at polls, and give him all states within 5% of him), Mccain will win 338 - 200.

In the absolute best scenario for Barack Obama, he wins 373-165.

Assuming the election were held today, and all the states voted via the last poll, Obama will win 338-200. This means that national polls mean nothing when Obama is polling ahead in all the major states.

States that Mccain will most likely win (At least a 85% chance): Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Louisiana, Arkansas, Arizona. This is worth 88 electoral votes, and I recognize that he will win more states, but these are his safest bet.

States that Obama will win (85% chance: Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, California, Oregon, Iowa, Washington, Hawaii, New Jersey, DC. 208 electoral votes.

This leaves half the country designated as Swing State Territory. As of the round of polling before last week, that left Obama winning the election 45-44 with 11% still undecided. Mccain hasn't polled above 44% nationally since Obama win the nomination, and Obama hasn't polled below 44%. One can deduct that Mccain's ceiling is Obama's floor.

Now for the swing states.
Texas: Texas is going to go Republican most likely. Barring a massive Youth, Black, and Hispanic turnout, we don't really have much of a chance. Rasmussen puts Obama down 9, while other polls have the election going closer. As of now, Mccain wins Texas, bringing the EV count to 206-122. There is the remote possibility that Obama can overcome the Clinton supporter hatred while Mccain continues to alienate the religious folks enough that Obama wins a close race due to lack of enthusiasm for the Republican Party and it's not so religious candidate.

Pillowpants seyz: Mccain is going to win Texas, but by 2016 Texas will be a Democratic stronghold once again.

Connecticut, Maine, and New Hampshire Obama is polling ahead in all 3 states, but Mccain has a high level of support in New Hampshire which could spill over to Maine and Senator Lieberman's support of him in Connecticut might give the man the votes he needs to win a state that always goes blue. Fortunately for Obama though, Lieberman's disapproval level in Connecticut is going up on a daily basis, which will probably cause him to have a negative impact on CT if he makes the effort to switch it.

Pillowpants seyz: Maine and Connecticut are a lock for Obama, and NH is probably a Mccain state. Electoral Votes: 217-126

Mississippi, Georgia, and The Carolinas These states have an electorate with 35% black population. Said population usually has a turnout rate of 60% at presidential elections. Given Mccain's lack of enthusiasm among evangelical leaders and Obama's attempts to reach out to them, we could be looking at a blue dotted south. In a region where I give Obama a 5% chance of winning Alabama, third party candidate Bob Barr is taking enough support from Mccain in these states that could win him parts of the south.

Pillowpants seyz If the election were held today, Obama would lose Mississippi, win Georgia and South Carolina, and probably win North Carolina. I will however venture to guess that unless Bob Barr does something phenomenal in these states, he will stick to 2% in these four states, giving Obama a win in Georgia. He will win North Carolina because he has a large amount of support in the state and he has been pandering to the right crowd, but South Carolina and Mississippi are going to go red. Electoral Votes: 247-140. Once again, pay attention to Bob Barr.

Alaska John Mccain has been polling 5 points ahead of Obama in Alaska for months, even as the Alaska republican party falters. However, as the economy gets worse and Mccain continues to deny there's a problem while Bush starts using some of Obama's Iraq policies and Republican's from Alaska continue to endorse Obama, I would ALMOST guarantee Obama taking Alaska.

Pillowpants seyz Alaska is going blue. I am 85% sure. Electoral Votes: 250-140.

Montana and Dakota country Montana has both candidates pulling dead even, while most of North Dakota's polls have been showing Obama with a slight lead for months now. While Obama's main surrogate is from South Dakota, he showed that he isn't a factor in the state. Once Obama picks his generic white guy as VP, his numbers should increase in these two states and guarantee him a win. Pillowpants seys that Montana and ND go to Obama, while Sd stays red. This gives Obama 14 EV's to win, while Mccain has 93 different ways.

As of this moment, the Electoral vote count is 256-143. The only way for Mccain to win this election is if he takes Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and 3/5 remaining states after that.

Nevada, Missouri, Indiana, I choose these together because polls show Mccain ahead or achieving a lead in them. They're all tossups and could easily go to Obama with a few more Mccain gaffes or if Obama chooses Evan Bayh and turns out the hispanics/blacks. Unfortunately, as of now, I say they're Mccain country. Electoral Votes 256-183. There are 6 states left.

Colorado, New Mexico Obama has consistantly polled ahead of Mccain in polls in this state, whether it be due to large hispanic populations or large urban centers controlling the way the state votes, but Obama is going to win these two states, and with these two states, he wins the election.

Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan These are some of the biggest states in the country. Ohio will go red while the other 3 go blue, just because of polls and how the population breakdown.

Obama will win this election 335-203. He is going to win it for many reasons.

The first reason is that Mccain's economic advisors either worked for Enron and wrote our failed energy policy in 2002, or they helped destroy HP's credibility in the business world.

The second reason is that most Republicans do not like John Mccain so they will not turn out in great numbers.

Things to look for in coming months:
1. Watch as Evangelicals start to split evenly between Obama and Mccain, guaranteeing an Obama blowout.
2. African American turnout in record numbers.
3. Bush adopting more Obama policies
4. Hispanic turnout in record numbers for the Democrats.
5. Jerome Corsi gets linked to Mccain campaign and it destroys the candidacy.

Welcome everyone, to President Barack Obama.