Firstly, it does not matter when fossil fuels will run out; what matters is when demand outstrips supply. This event is called the 'peak production' of the fuel, from which point onward there will be less and less of the fuel produced, and more and more tension between nations fighting over the decreasing supply.
The general consensus, formed over 50 years and from scores of studies, is that Earth's total oil supply is between 2,000 and 2,800 billion barrels. The halfway marks are 1,000 and 1,400 respectively. By the end of 2000, the world had consumed 899 billion barrels, Each year we are consuming 28 billion barrels (rising by 2% a year), but discovering only 6 billion barrels (a barrel is 42 gallons). If the global supply is 2,000 billion barrels, we'll reach the halfway mark in 2004, if it is 2,800 billion barrels, we'll reach it in 2018. From that moment on [known as peak oil], global demand will outstrip supply, causing prices to skyrocket as everyone competes for what's left. (Dauncey 7)
Natural gas is also forecast to hit peak in the near future: 'The world's proven reserves of natural gas in 2000 were 5,146 tcf (trillion cubic feet). At the current rate of consumption (83 tcf), this will last 62 years. At the rate forecast for 2020 (167 tcf/year), it will last 31 years' (Dauncey 42).
Though there are still numerous reserves of coal found around the world, it is not practical to turn to it for all energy needs, both because it cannot be utilized for most forms of transportation, and because it is so much more polluting than oil and natural gas.
Of all fossil fuels, coal has the most harmful immediate and long-term effects on the environment and human health. Air pollution, thermal pollution, land devastation, groundwater pollution, acidification of streams and rivers, erosion, subsidence of land caused by underground mines, hazards to miners, and, of course, global warming are all recognized as part and parcel of coal's utilization.(Smith 155)
'Scrubber' technologies are in use that can reduce levels of some types of air pollution, though they produce toxic sludge (which brings up storage issues) and they presently do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions.
Peak oil and natural gas aside, use of fossil fuels in energy production cannot be continued because at present, 'the production of energy is, arguably, the primary cause of most of the planet's pollution (for example, deforestation for fuelwood or almost all transportation related air pollution) and most energy production involves the use of natural resources'(Smith 143). Global warming problems that are caused by the release of CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases during the use and production of fossil fuels creates problems that are too dire for us to ignore. Our current mode of energy production provides us with heat, light and transportation at the cost of long term survival.
There are renewable energy technologies currently available that can and are replacing non-renewable energy sources. Biomass (and biodiesel), geothermal, solar, wind, and hydropower, and co-generation are all economically feasible and environmentally sound energy sources. When implementing these technologies we must not to simply reconstruct a greenwashed version of monopolized, centralized, and homogenized/ single source energy grid. All of these options are for the most part amenable to small scale and community energy production, which is vital for energy security and also necessary when tailoring energy production to specific regions. A decentralized energy grid can also help diminish the wealth gap, one of the biggest sources of most environmental degradation, as small projects that can supply energy and income are within the means of middle class and low income communities, while large ones are not.
However, conservation and efficiency must be implemented at the same time in order to tide us through the transition and in order to keep the world supplied with truly sustainable energy. This 'soft' approach to energy generation, which assumes that what we really want is not more pure energy but the end products (such as heat, light, and something to cook our food with), benefits producers as well as consumers.
This is because the cost to increase supply, building new power plants, is huge as well as risky. Demand-side management (end use-least cost) reduces costs and conserves energy, whereas the 'hard' style of simply selling as many electrons as possible encourages waste (Smith 143).
Reductions in cost and reductions in energy use mean savings for end users and good profit margins for energy producers.
The economic gains that can be had from energy conservation should not be downplayed.
As the 1987 report of the International Energy Agency stated, 'Investment in energy conservation at the margin provides a better return than investment in energy supply'. Though the United States is saving $150 billion to $200 billion worth of energy compared to 1972 efficiency levels, there are still $300 billion worth of energy wasted annually (Smith 165).
This money to be made from energy conservation is not just nickels and dimes, but enough to make any business person look up and take notice.
The world, especially developed nations and multinational corporations, must put an end to its economic and energy dependence on fossil fuels. The cost outstrips the benefits. While fossil fuels supply us with the energy we need, it also creates environmental degradation and pollution at every step in its lifecycle, takes extensive energy to mine, process and ship, and creates geo-political tension between nations that have the fuels and the nations that desperately want them. We have also reached or are about to reach peak production for oil and natural gas, which will only exacerbate the aforementioned geo-political tensions, and make both fossil fuels increasingly expensive.
We must transition to an energy policy that promotes diverse sustainable alternatives suited to the region in which they are situated, as well as energy conservation to tide us over during the changeover and fossil fuel crisis, to rein in ever growing demand for more and more energy, and to provide profits that will be a carrot to energy companies as well as a fund for their research and development.
Works Cited
Dauncey, Guy and Patrick Mazza. Stormy Weather: 101 Solutions to Global Climate
Change. New Society Publishers: Gabriola Island, 2001.
Smith, Zachary A. The Environmental Policy Paradox, Fourth Edition. Prentice Hall
Publishers: Upper Saddle River, 2004.
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- It does not matter when fossil fuels will run out; what matters is when demand outstrips supply.
- There are renewable energy technologies currently available that are replacing non-renewables.
