Evacuation Software: In a Disaster Can We Follow a Computer Based Plan?

When disasters strike, such as volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, or even terrorist attacks, we all want a way to get out and to get to safety. However evacuating millions of people, many of them in vehicles can generate a panic and be problematic and overwhelming.

An assistant processor at the University of Arizona Civil Engineering Department named Yi-Chang Chiu has been developing a software that can react to a situation in real time, adjusting as conditions on the ground change. The software will depend on detailed traffic census dada that is collected by state and city transportation departments in conjunction with real-time traffic surveillance data.

The software will also consider the decisions that the driver makes, as well as which route to take with congestions and advisories. This software application was made possible by a four year $400,000 National Science Foundation Grant.

This is a great concept and a wonderful way to plan out the types of patterns available in the case of emergencies, but depending on the emergency, many people may be without electricity and not be able to view or hear the available evacuation plan. Not many people have battery operated radios sitting around anymore. If the emergency evacuation is something in regards to say a hurricane, a lot of times residents have about 48 to 72 hours to evacuate.

In regards to a weather emergency, this software does have the ability to compile to most recent data on specific storms and historical data on similar storms. The data also provides the probability numbers on how much the current storm is likely to intensify and where it is going to strike. But what about a disaster emergency that gives residents 30 minutes or less to be aware of the situation? Is there a plan B?

You also have to think about how many people will actually listen to an evacuation plan. A lot of people are stubborn and a lot of people may take advantage of the evacuation and see it as a time for riot.

The software also has the ability to calculate any health risks and also calculate where the most casualties will occur and just how many casualties there will be. In my opinion, its great to know that this software can assist by calculating that, however I'm hoping that this software can focus on those areas and find a way to decrease the number of casualties in regards to the specific emergency.

The Evacuation software also has a post disaster application that will assist with calculating the immediate and the long term effects on the city and what would be the best scenario for recovering the disaster affected areas.

This seems like an interesting program, kind of reminds me of Sim City. But in all due respect to the designers, this software is all based upon simulation and scenarios. No one has the ability to cover every single scenario and outcome and effects of every single situation.

An example of that would be for a volcanic eruption. Scientists can make all the predictions and give a time frame and we can plan a route for evacuation; however what if every prediction of that volcano's blast is backwards and millions of people get caught in the eruption?

We try and we try to assist in finding a plan and predicting what is going to happen, but I think that we all have to realize that Mother Nature has her own plan. And when it comes to the people of this world, when disaster strikes, panic takes over and many times our minds are filled with chaos.

I think another major concern is the fact that this is man-made software. No human is perfect, and nine times out of ten, man-made items fail.

Being human, it is our instinct to survive. I'm not sure if I want to count on a man-made software program to get me to safety.