Evaluating Dan Mullen at the 3 Year Mark

First, let's address Mullen's negatives. In 3 years at Mississippi State, he is 3-12 in the SEC West. All three wins have come over Ole Miss. In three years, Mullen has been beaten by LSU, Alabama, Arkansas and Auburn by a combined score of 394-195 with an average score of 25-12. Mullen has a 9-15 overall SEC record in 3 years. With the exception of his wins over Florida and Georgia in '10, his only other SEC wins were against Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Additionally, Mullen is 2-12 against opponents ranked in the top 25. Tactically, Mullen's teams have had problems inside the red zone in some key big game situations: most notably against LSU in '09 and against LSU, Alabama and Auburn in '11.

So now, we present the defense of Dan Mullen. When Dan Mullen took over Mississippi State University in 2009, he inherited one of the most mediocre teams in the history of the SEC and in all of college football. The all-time wins leader among Mississippi State head coaches is 75 by Jackie Sherrill, whose overall winning percentage was .500. As a comparison, the all time wins leader at in-state rival Ole Miss is Johnny Vaught who had 190 with a .745 winning percentage. Ninety miles to the east at perennial rival Alabama, the all-time wins leader is Bear Bryant who had 232 (at Alabama) and a winning percentage of .834. Mullen didn't exactly step into an ideal situation either. Prior to Mullen's arrival, State had suffered 7 losing seasons in the previous 8. During those 8 seasons, State won a total of 13 SEC games…an average of less than 2 a year. In those 8 seasons, State had lost 5 times to Ole Miss, including 3 years in a row from '02 to'04, and a 45-0 shellacking at the end of the '08 season. In those 5 losses, State was outscored 120-32, an average score of 24-6.

So what's changed under Mullen? For starters, he's won 20 games in three years, exactly as many as all-time MSU wins leader Jackie Sherrill did after 3 years in Starkville, and one less than Sylvester Croom (Mullen's predecessor) won in 5 seasons at the helm. Of course, it is also worth noting that Sherrill had 16 years of head coaching experience when he took over the Bulldogs while Mullen (like his predecessor) had none.

It is also worth mentioning at this point just how murderous the Bulldogs' division is. State plays in the SEC, which has produced 6 of the last 8 BCS National Champions, including the last 5 in a row. More specifically, the Bulldogs play in the SEC West, which has produced 4 of those 6 BCS titles (including the last 2 in a row), This year, Auburn was the defending National Champions, while LSU, Alabama and Arkansas were ranked 1, 2, and 3 in the country at one point. Barring a huge upset in the SEC Championship game, LSU and Alabama will play for this years' BCS title. All this to say, that when one considers that the other teams Mullen has had to compete with and what he inherited, it's a wonder he's not winless in SEC play.

There have been several bright spots in Mullen's tenure. Mullen's Bulldogs beat Georgia for the first time since 1974 and won at Florida for the first time since 1965. Mullen's Bulldogs have been bowl eligible in 2 of his 3 seasons, as were Sherrill's in his first 3 seasons. State set a Gator Bowl record in 2011 with 52 points scored. They handed the University of Michigan its worst defeat in a bowl game in the history of that program. It was also Michigan's worst loss in any football game since 1935. Additionally, Mullen has won 3 straight against rival Ole Miss, making him the first MSU coach to do so since 1942. State has won those games by an average score of 34-18. In 2009, Ole Miss was 8-3 and the 25^th ranked team in the country. State scored over 40 points in that game, marking the first time it had scored over 40 points in the series since 1917. In 2010, State won for the first time in Oxford since 1998, and this year's game saw State win by its largest margin of victory over Ole Miss since 1919.

Historical significances aside, Mullen's teams have shown progressive improvement on both sides of the ball. Red Zone scoring efficiency has gone from 69% in 2008 to 86% in 2011 with improvement each year of Mullen's tenure. In 2008, State averaged 276 yards total offense per game. State has not had a single year averaging less than 300 yards a game total offense since Mullen's arrival. In 2008, State averaged 15 points a game. In Mullen's 3 three years, they have averaged at least 26 points a game every year. In 2008, State scored 183 total points. The Bulldogs have scored at least 300 points a year every year Mullen has been the head coach

Defensively, there has been only one season (2009) when Bulldog opponents scored an average of more than 20 points per game. In 2010, they were the only team to hold National Champion Auburn to under 20 points all season. This year, Mississippi State was the only team in the regular season besides #2 Alabama to hold LSU to under 20 points. Additionally, State held Alabama to its second-lowest scoring output of the regular season (24).

In the 2011 regular season, 4 of State's 6 losses were to teams ranked in the top 15 (3 in the top ten)at the time State played them. The other two losses were to defending National Champion Auburn, and SEC East Champion Georgia, who finished the regular season at #12. Every team State has lost to in Mullen's 3 year tenure had a winning record at the end of the season in which they beat MSU. Mullen is also 10-2 in non-conference games, with the only losses coming in 2009 to Houston, who finished the season with 10 wins, and Georgia Tech, who won the ACC title.

While I concede that it is far too early to tell how Dan Mullen's tenure at State will pan out, it's clear to see he's off to a good start, and can hardly be deemed "all hat and no cattle."