Exit Polls Indicate Hillary Clinton Would Be in Trouble in November Should She Be the Democratic Nominee

Hillary Clinton has been projected as the winner of the Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary, beating Barack Obama by approximately eight points, 56% to 44%, with two-thirds of precincts reporting. Clinton has continued to outdraw Obama among white, working class voters, according to the exit polls. She also attracted the lion's share votes of gun-owners and white Roman Catholics. However, ABC News' preliminary exit polls that Clinton's quixotic quest for the Democratic Presidential nomination is seriously wounding likely nominee Obama -- and herself.

The white Catholic vote in Pennsylvania is exceeding 30% of voters, twice the turnout for the demographic than has been the normal in primary states that already have voted. Over 20% of Democratic voters are from rural areas, which is higher than normal in the 2008 election cycle, and a little over 25% come from urban areas, which is less than average. Almost 30% of Democratic voters in the Keystone State voters are unionized or are from households with a union-member, and almost 40% are gun-owners or come from households in which there is a firearm.

The African American vote in Pennsylvania went overwhelmingly for Barack Obama, over 90%, signifying a deep disenchantment with Hillary Clinton. Blacks accounted for half of Obama's vote in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary.

Obama won 60% of the vote of newly registered Democrats, a group that includes independents and cross-over Republicans who were attracted to the Democratic candidates this year or who otherwise might have wanted to influence the race. Republican Party stalwarts such as radio broadcaster Rush Limbaugh have urged Republican voters, now that their nomination has been decided in favor of John McCain, to cross-over and vote for Hillary Clinton to prolong the primary contest and wound the Democratic Party.

Hillary Clinton herself received the endorsement of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, a newspaper owned by Richard Mellon Scaife, the right-wing multi-millionaire who financed many of the reactionaries who hounded her and her husband during the Bill Clinton Administration. Whether it was a strategic move on Scaife's part to help undermine the Democratic Party is a question best left to historians.

With a margin to comparable to that racked up by Barack Obama among the newly registered, Hillary Clinton won big among late-deciding voters, those who made up their mind in the week prior to the primary. Her strongly negative campaign against Obama seemed to work, though it had a high degree of "blow back." According to ABC News' preliminary exit polls, approximately two-thirds of the voters in the Pennsylvania primary said that Clinton's attacks on Obama were "unfair" while approximately one-half said the same of Obama.

ABC News reports that the numbers of voters reporting that one candidate unfairly attacked the other were 15% higher for Clinton and 10% higher for Obama than reported in exit polls in previous primaries. This indicates that the increasingly negative tone of the Democratic campaign is eroding the goodwill attached to both candidates.

Hillary Clinton's strength with gun-owners and Catholics does not necessarily signify her electability as she would like Democratic superdelegates and the pundits of the press to believe. Self-identified gun-owners traditionally have voted for the Republican candidate for President in the quadrennial November election. Clinton's strength with the white Catholic vote in Pennsylvania also is a chimera: Catholics increasingly have cast their lot with the GOP candidate. In 2004, a majority of Catholics voted for incumbent President George W. Bush, a Methodist, over Democratic challenger Senator John Kerry, only the third Roman Catholic in U.S. history to stand for President on a major party ticket.

The 2008 Presidential election will be the 56th such contest in American history. No woman or African American has ever before been the nominee of a major political party.

Hillary Clinton's almost utter lack of African American support in Pennsylvania (Obama won the black vote 92% to 8%), despite high profile endorsements in the black community, signals deep trouble for her, should she be the Democratic nominee in November. Disaffection by African Americans, a critical segment of the Democratic coalition that provides up to one-quarter of the Party's vote, could seriously hamper her chances to win the November Presidential election if enough black voters stay away from the polls.

Conversely, Barack Obama might suffer from a potential alienation from Hillary Clinton's vital base of women voters, should she be left off the 2008 ticket. Women accounted for approximately 60% of the turnout in Pennsylvania. White, professional women increasingly are voting Republican, and a defection of Hillary's base from Obama to the Republican John McCain could be the difference between his becoming the 44th President of the United States or joining Walter Mondale, Mike Dukakis, Al Gore & John Kerry in the Electoral College's dust-bin come Tuesday, November 4, 2008.

With proportional representation, Pennsylvania's 158 delegates will be split relatively evenly, meaning that Hillary Clinton has no chance now of catching up with Barack Obama in terms of pledged delegates. Furthermore, she failed to get the overwhelming victory she needed to make a serious pitch to superdelegates to abandon Obama as the nominee. In fact, her less-than-the-overwhelming victory tonight in the Keystone State likely will increase the pressure on her to drop out of the race.

One of her main supporters in Pennsylvania, Governor Ed Rendell, spread the word this weekend among political pundits that he plans to play a major role in persuading Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race. Rendell is talked about as a potential running mate for Barack Obama. Clinton was up by 20% in the polls in Pennsylvania until Obama began closing the gap with a huge advertising campaign. She needed to roll up a huge victory to legitimate the continuing of her campaign as the damage she is causing to the next nominee of the Democratic Party is immense, according to the Pennsylvania exit polls.

Sources

ABC News, "EXIT POLLS: Negative Campaign Tarnishes Clinton, Obama"

Daily Telegraph (London). "Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama in Pennsylvania primary";"Exit polls"

Voice of America News, "Clinton Keeps Presidential Campaign Alive with Pennsylvania Win"