Extreme Weather and the Environment

It's Sunday afternoon and Hurricane Wilma has left the Yucatan Peninsula, damaging the resort areas of Cancun and Cozumel. She has turned her sights toward the West Coast of Florida. While for the first time in recorded weather history, a tropical storm is whirling in the Atlantic with the name Alpha. Once the gender-based names have been exhausted, the storms are named after the letters of the Greek alphabet. This is the first time that has happened, truly an "Alpha" situation.

Global Warming, or historical trend? It seems the answer to that question depends on who you ask. It would be hard to find any scientist who would deny that the atmosphere is getting warmer. Where opinions differ widely is when we start to talk about the effects from that warming. There is a political factor to the answer also. The more right-leaning expert might say that the hurricanes are entirely due to historical trends. We are in a period of heavier Atlantic tropical activity that can be shown to be part of an approximately 30 year trend. A more left-leaning or environmentally concerned scientist might say Global Warming. One could find numerous experts to support either argument. So what is happening? Perhaps both answers are correct. One doesn't necessarily exclude the other. We are in a trend for more storms. What is most likely occurring is that the trend is being enhanced by the warmer water and atmosphere caused by warming. What does this tell us about the future? We can expect the trends to expand. What used to be considered a high storm season might become the norm, while peak season trends will break new records.

And it is not just the hurricane problem. "El Nino," or the warming of Pacific Ocean waters, is experiencing a similar change. It is occurring more often, and when it does occur, it is stronger and lasts longer than in previous years. Midwest and Northeast floods and blizzards are occurring more frequently. In the last few years, how many times have we heard the terms "500 year flood" "100 year blizzard" or "record hurricane season?" And then heard the same things a year or two later? Most thinking about the results of Global Warming expects weather trends to form along those parameters. More storms, stronger storms. More distinct seasons, like colder winters after long hot summers. The only major disagreements seem to be concerning the timing. Most experts don't deny that the changes are coming, they only argue about how soon and how severe.

So what do we do? First, we have to begin now to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We may well find that the cost of doing this now will pale in comparison to the costs coming from weather damage. And the rising costs of oil and natural gas may be just the impetus that this change requires. Second, we have to be prepared for more extreme weather. We need to stop building expensive homes in areas that are prone to disaster. The sooner we start to make plans for more bad weather in coastal zones the less painful in will be in the future. Many insurance companies no longer write homeowner policies in Florida. They can read the writing on the wall, yet real estate prices rose sharply in most of Florida over the past year. If the trend of more and stronger storms does continue, taxpayers will have to pay the tab down the line when many houses are uninsurable. And people across the country can expect higher premiums from the companies that continue to do business there. We talk about rebuilding New Orleans. Perhaps we should consider turning the most vulnerable parts back to wetlands, and rebuilding the city in a more eco-friendly fashion.

What we should not do is to overreact when we see for sure that the weather is getting worse. Mother Earth has been through many extreme weather changes, and she will survive. And we will also, although we may have to change the way we live on her. We don't want to listen to opportunistic doomsday talk. We need to become more aware of how we live on our planet has an effect on how she responds. For anyone who belittles the wake up calls concerning Global Warming or denies its existence, I offer the following experiment. Go into your garage, close the door, start your car, and see what happens to the air inside. Sure, the atmosphere is much larger and has mechanisms for cleaning itself. But it is not infinite, and sooner or later it will be overwhelmed by all the gasses being pumped into it.