Fact: College Football Preseason Polls Are a Sham

I'll admit, I didn't see Michigan beginning the season 0-2, especially not with the schedule they had. Appalachian State? I've been there; it's a great place to go skiing or snowboarding. Sure, they were the defending I-AA back-to-back national champions. But Michigan was talking national championship! Who knew they couldn't defend the spread offense? Oregon did, with that 39-7 trouncing last Saturday.

This article isn't to rip on the Wolverines, however. They're just the perfect case study for the stupidity of college football's pre-season poll. Here's 3 arguments why we shouldn't have a poll until after 4th week of play, when things are beginning to shape up:

Reason #1: BCS conferences are actually scheduling big games early

This means top-25 teams are going to lose early, and slip in everyone's power rankings. As a dedicated Tennessee fan, it was painful watching them lose to a powerful Cal team in week 1. But that just proves how good Cal is; they're easily a top-10 unit at this point, whereas Tennessee dropped to #22 after that week and played a gimme-win school (Southern Mississippi) for their second game. The next test is at Florida, who is currently ranked 5th. Win there, and Tennessee moves back up the rankings. Lose, and they'll more than likely drop out, even if they almost pull it out and show they can hang with a top-5 caliber team.

The point is, nobody can predict exactly how a team is going to begin a season. Which leads to a drastic re-shaping of the first polls; why bother giving voters a headache when waiting until something's happened makes more sense?

Reason #2: Polls are not necessarily a reflection of how good a team is

This could be a decent cause for not having human polls at all. Case in point: Let's say two very good teams are fighting it out. It's a rivalry game, to boot. Turns out, the game is decided on a last-second field goal. Both teams were evenly matched, it just came down to who had the ball last.

What do you think the polls will show? The winner will likely retain their spot or move up; the loser, though playing just as well as the winner, will assuredly drop, sometimes more than a few spots. Given the BCS formula, this can be devastating for a national championship or BCS bowl berth. Case in point: Last season, Oklahoma was ripped off of a win by a botched instant replay call. Because they were credited a loss when they actually won, the Sooners dropped in the polls. Though they won all but one game the rest of the season, they were not included in BCS championship talks, even though they technically won their first game and therefore were a third powerhouse 1-loss team.

College football coaches and media members can't catch all of the games, and they have other things to keep track of besides how a team is doing overall. But the polls are supposed to be a reflection of how good team is- a pre-season poll can only be based on expectations and predictions, not actual results. And that results in too many off-base polls.

Reason #3: The pre-season poll is never close to the final one

According to ESPN.com, every year in the past 5 one team finished ranked in the top 10 that wasn't there when the season began, which means at least one team that was in the pre-season top 10 doesn't finish there. Last year was Boise State finished ranked #3 despite beginning the year outside the top 20. This year, it's guaranteed former #5 Michigan won't be in the upper-tier come year's end, barring a miraculous run through the Big Ten. West Virginia and Lousiville are both top-10 teams at the moment; what'll happen when they play one another? Thanks to reason #2, will the loser drop beyond recovery? And what about Hawaii...will they be this year's mid-major to gain a BCS bowl berth? Or will another scene like the one in 2003 play out, when Auburn finished 3rd in the BCS formula despite going undefeated (they began ranked 17th, whereas the top 2 teams began in the top 5). Given the likelihood of these scenarios, it's safe to say this year will be the 6th in which the pre-season top 10 was very different from the ending one.

As you can see, the case for banning pre-season polls is logical. Considering the impact polls have on the Bowl Championship Series formula, and thus who gets the big-money bowl berths, high stakes are being based on opinions and predictions. Not only does waiting until the season is well under way fair to the fans and teams, it allows people to make up their own minds without the bias generated from these polls. And, it doesn't make the participants look so stupid, either.