Fading the Public: A Bona Fide Betting Strategy

Fading the public is one of the most thought through betting strategies in all the world of professional betting. One amongst the myriad of betting strategies used by the wagering public today, it is a testament to how gamblers feel about their sportsbook aficionado peers. Sometimes, the public is just a group of inexperienced, rush gamblers that don´t have the devotion to thoroughly research a team. The old timer might say that the public is just a bunch of misinformed indulgers visiting their local bookies in droves rooting for their favorite teams. Fading the public is a gambling behavior that can pay much dividends if properly thought out.

Bandwagon characterizes the public best when it comes to betting. Year after year, a fad team appears out of nowhere as a result of excellent play. Sports enthusiasts start to buy their jerseys, their caps, and root for their new team. Las Vegas, cognizant of this fact, work their lines appropriately. For example, the Denver Broncos (¨America´s team during the 90´s) were hitting hot streaks left and right. Winning game after game, they won themselves into the hearts of the casual sports fan. What happens? Rush-happy gamblers bet for them to win, regardless of how the spread figures. In what typically would be a Las Vegas decided -9 spread against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals is now turned into an outrageous -14 point spread. Bettors know the public will side on ¨America´s¨ team, so they calculate accordingly.

Fading the public, in essence, means betting for the team the majority of the betting public is betting against. Say you have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (a notoriously bad team through the course of their history) at a +6 spread against the high octane Buffalo Bills in a homegame at Jets Stadium with a forecast of snow. Typically, you would assume the Buffalo Bills wouldn´t have a problem running and making tackles through the snow, upping their game. Tampa Bay, who typically play in a hotter climate you assume, would have a difficult time. Couple in the fact that Buffalo is on a hot streak - and the choice is obvious, choose Buffalo to win outright! Presumibly, this is the public´s mindset and the majority will root for Buffalo in what looks like a ¨surefire lock bet.¨ Low and behold, you´ve done additional research highlighting the strengths of the Buccaneers. You noticed their top lineman recovered from an ankle injury. What the public doesn´t know is that the No. 1 wide receiver for the Bills is questionable for the game. Most importantly, you sense a loss - you believe Tampa Bay will pull out that victory. What do you do? Bet against whatever riftraft the public is believing in and choose the underdog - hence, fading the public.

Fading the public is also done when there are a string of games the majority of the public has lost throughout the past couple of weeks. You figure that the public´s cold betting streak will continue through Week 4, so you choose the opposing side regardless of statistical and player data - thinking they are destined to lose. There are plenty of advantages in exercising this betting strategy, but there are also risks. For starters, public teams are public teams for a reason. They have covered the spread well through games, blowing out team after team in the process. You are afraid to bet against the mind numbing, low Minnesota Viking -2 spread against the poor playing Detroit Lions after they´ve exploded for a 6 game winning streak. However, you must have poor confidence in the public to fade. Remember, not all sports bettors are created equal. Lots of them place huge wagers on their hometown teams, regardless of their past performance. If the public bets your side, don´t think twice if you believe your team will win. Sometimes the public is right!