Fantasy Baseball Draft Mistakes

If you're like me, your life changes when the fantasy baseball season begins. During the month of March your priorities shift and fall into roughly the following order of importance: fantasy baseball, NCAA basketball, playing internet poker, hanging out with your girlfriend and going to work if you need to catch up on sleep. Hopefully, you're not like me.

But there's no reason you can't draft as well as me. If you avoid the following rookie mistakes and spend a couple hours looking over statistics you should be able to assemble a fantasy baseball team good enough to come in second to my team, and your friends won't need to have an intervention for you.

1.Not fully understanding your league's scoring system - Many fantasy baseball players go into their draft without checking the categories their league awards points in. That's like sitting at a poker table and not knowing if a straight beats a flush. You should check how many points are awarded in each category in a points or head-to-head league. In a rotisserie league, study what the categories are. Power number are important in some leagues and batting average and steals are important in others. Some leagues penalize you for strikeouts. Some don't. That could mean the difference between taking Ryan Howard in the second round or taking him with the second overall pick.

2. Looking at only last year's numbers - Last year's numbers are the most relevant statistic to judge players by, but there are other numbers that are almost as important. Check the player's career statistics, particularly his last three years. Comparing those stats with the player's age will give you a more rounded picture of his ability. In general, a player peaks in his late 20's and will start to decline in his mid 30's, though players often produce better power numbers in the latter half of their careers. The decline for catchers begins a few years earlier.

Check spring training numbers too, but don't let them sway your opinion of a player too much. I wouldn't be worried if I saw Albert Pujols was hitting .215 with one home run, but if a young pitcher or hitter is tearing up the Grapefruit league, he might be worth a speculative pick later in the draft.

3.Not having a detailed plan for the first few rounds - This year was the first time I was ever caught off guard in the first round of a fantasy draft. Like the last 4-5 years or so, I figured Pujols and A-Rod would go one-two. I had the fifth pick in the draft, so I planned on snagging Jose Reyes or Johan Santana, if Reyes was already gone. I was totally thrown off when the obvious pick of Pujols at number one was followed by Santana, Howard and David Ortiz. With Reyes and A-Rod still available, I hemmed and hawed for all 90 seconds that I was on the clock. I went with A-Rod, which is a clear mistake in retrospect. Not only did Reyes vastly outperform A-Rod last year, but a huge Mets fan was picking right behind me. He quickly picked Reyes. Even if I liked A-Rod better in that spot, I could have taken Reyes and traded him to the Mets fan for whoever he took in the first round (A-Rod most likely) and gotten an upgrade at another position.

This decision threw off my entire fantasy draft and there was no excuse for it, because I knew the draft order two days before the draft was scheduled. A way to avoid this is to create a list of players you are targeting for each round of your draft. Include at least three players in each round or else you could end up pulling your hair out while your on the clock for your pick.

4. Not reacting to trends - A fantasy baseball trend is when your fellow league mates all start taking players from a certain position. For example, fantasy players tend to avoid pitchers (except Santana) for the first two or three rounds of a draft, but once someone takes Chris Carpenter, the next guy invariably takes Roy Halladay, and the next guy takes Brandon Webb, etc. There is usually a "closer run" in the fourth or fifth round, where all the top relievers disappear from the board.

The way to deal with these trends is to take a good hard look at the position's depth. If it is a deep position or you have some sleepers queued up for the later rounds, this could be a good time to snag a great player from a position no one is paying attention to. If there is a steep drop-off at that position after the next player taken, you should probably take him. For example, if the two guys ahead of you pick Joe Mauer and Brian McCann in the third round, you should take Victor Martinez. The next best player at that position (Ivan Rodriguez?) is nowhere near as good as those guys.

5. Not paying attention to the other rosters - Do you have a difficult choice between a second baseman and an outfielder in the middle rounds? You should base your pick on what positions are already filled on the rosters behind you. If those teams have stacked outfields already, you should go with your second base pick. Chances are the outfielder will still be around in the next round because the owners who pick behind you are looking to fill other positions.

The bottom line is it's almost impossible to avoid mistakes in fantasy baseball. Even when I have a great draft I look back at the results and wish I could change a few of my picks. What you can do is avoid big mistakes, like not understanding your league's scoring rules. With a little preparation work you give yourself a good chance to take home a fantasy World Series ring.