Fantasy Baseball Draft Tip: Ignore Stolen Bases

Chances are your league has a category for stolen bases, which like the saves category leads many fantasy players to go out of their way to draft a player they otherwise wouldn't pick up.

At least with closers, the good news is that most of them run strong strikeout rates and low ERAs, which still helps your overall pitching numbers. But despite the general perception that base stealers know how to get on base, many base stealers actually run a low OBP and, in turn, a lower average since they tend to be otherwise poor hitters with little power. Even if they do get on base consistently, they hit for little power, and are only good for runs when their teammates can drive them in. This can cut into your team's batting average, RBI and HR totals.

In fact, teams that ignore the stolen base stat have an advantage over you. By focusing exclusively on run producing sluggers and productive hitters, they may punt the stolen base category, but they have the advantage over you in AVG, RBI, HR and sometimes even runs, since the productive hitters get on base so much that they tend to score a lot of runs.

This also discounts the injury risks with stolen bases. Whether or not they tend to spend a lot of time on the DL, the slightest lower body injury can sap all of their value to your lineup. The keys to stolen bases are speed and timing. A simple ankle, knee or groin sprain can sap just enough speed and coordination to eliminate that player's stolen base ability if they do play. Typically, for this reason a speedy base runner will just eat it and hit the DL, where he also doesn't help you team, until he fully heals.

Ultimately, especially in head to head leagues, it's best not to bother with using a high draft pick a base stealer. Focus on stockpiling solid hitters and pitchers. Then, if you still want a base stealer once the season starts (those in roto leagues would need to do so), look for base stealers with high OBPs after the draft on the waiver wire. Or try to trade some of your stockpiled hitters for one of the few better hitting base stealers, like Ichiro or Jose Reyes. But again, be careful not to overvalue stolen bases and give away too much talent. Remember your advantage over those teams that overvalue SBs: your hitters rack up the RBI and HR while hitting for higher AVG. Don't give this advantage away just for one category.