Fantasy Baseball Draft Tips: Let Others Waste Picks on Top Pitchers

Most quality pitchers start to go around the 70-90 pick range, but there's always a handful of top-shelf pitchers who get picked in the 1^st or 2^nd round. This year's top projectees include Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum.

However, pitchers compose the biggest long-term injury risks. Because they throw hard 100-120 times a game every 5 days, or 15-20 times almost every day, their shoulders and arms experience more wear and tear. Typical pitcher injuries, torn ligaments, torn rotator cuffs, torn labrums, can knock a pitcher out for the year. And his diagnosis is usually preceded by weeks or months of painfully lowered productivity.

Every pitcher, even the best pitchers, face the risk of blowing out an arm. Chris Carpenter was a projected top pick two years ago, then blew out his arm and missed the season. Woe is any fantasy player who used a 1^st or 2^nd round pick on him.

Pitchers by their nature lead more volatile careers than hitters. They can be on top of the world one moment, and end up on the scrap heap one blown out elbow later. Francisco Liriano is a prime example of a pitcher who blew away hitters, then blew out his elbow and hasn't been the same since. Darren Dreifort was supposed to be a star before injuries derailed his career. Same with Mike Hampton, or the aforementioned Carpenter.

But even when the pitcher stays healthy, the marginal value he adds over a typical pitcher isn't that great. Lincecum may strike out 9-10 guys a night, but given the average fantasy starter can strike out 6-8, he's only going to add 2-3 K's a week to your totals at best. His ERA may run in the 3.00 range, but a lot of pitchers on the waiver wire can give you a 3.00-4.00 ERA, so there isn't much additional value there. And while Santana plays on a good team, Lincecum plays for the woeful Giants, meaning that he won't add to the Wins category much more than a typical starter. The strikeouts are great, but there's just no reason to use your 1^st or 2^nd round pick on a guy that isn't going to give you much more than, say, Jeremy Guthrie or Clay Hensley, each of whom can be had in the lower rounds. Meanwhile, you miss a chance to get one of the best hitters in the draft, whose HRs and RBIs would add much more to your team than a typical hitter.

For those reasons, using a 1^st or 2^nd round pick on Santana or Lincecum, rather than a good slugger like Pujols or Braun, isn't a smart risk. Pitchers are bigger risks than hitters on average, and even when they stay healthy, they just don't add much more than the average fantasy pitcher. Wait until the middle and lower rounds to stockpile productive arms, and let others waste their precious 1^st and 2^nd picks on aces.