Fantasy Baseball Tips: BABIP

BABIP is a fairly unknown statistic in baseball. It stands for Batting Average on Balls hit Into Play. It is a very helpful statistic in fantasy baseball because, if used right, it can tell you who to buy low or sell high.

Simple logic states that once a ball is hit into play, there is nothing a hitter can do to increase his chances of a hit. So, if you keep hitting them into play, they'll eventually start to drop for you. However, some guys just aren't good hitters and if they are hitting with a batting avg lower than their BABIP, they will likely continue to struggle. However, if a hitter is hitting with a BABIP lower than their average, as their BABIP will most likely increase, their batting average will too. Guys who hit .235 with a BABIP of .215 are good buy low candidates. Guys who hit .320 with a BABIP of .390 are good sell high candidates. Guys who hit .230 with a BABIP of .250, just plain shouldn't be touched. Guys who hit .330 with a BABIP of .310 are keepers. If you don't get it now, i'll give some examples.

Note, hitters with higher averages will see higher disparity between AVG and BABIP. If a hitter with a .350 average has a .350 BABIP, it means he is likely to stay the course and not drop off. If a hitter has a .350 average and a .420 BABIP, they'll be a drop off likely.

Buy low

Jason Giambi

AVG .266

BABIP: .243

Giambi had a decent average, but when he hits the ball into play, not striking out or hitting a homerun, the ball doesn't fall all that often. That is just bad luck and that should sort itself out. A rise in BABIP is very likely and thus a rise in batting average of 20-30 points is also likely. Buy low.

Projected final average .290

Joe Crede

AVG .284

BABIP .274

Not as big of a disparity as with Giambi, but its still something. Expect an increase in production.

Projected final average .300

Sell high

Justin Upton

AVG .244

BABIP .353

Guys keep Upton despite his low average because they see potential for him to turn it around. The BABIP and his 37.3% strikeout percentage say otherwise. Once those balls stop falling for him, he's out of luck.

Projected final average .215

Jack Cust

AVG .256

BABIP .351

Cust is a good example of this. He is an all or nothing guy which means he strikes out a lot. The only reason that is average is passable is that when he hits it into play, he often gets the friendly drop. If that stops for him, his average will fall.

Projected final average .240

BJ Upton

AVG .294

BABIP .370

Justin's brother BJ is also high strikeout guy which means that his average will soon fall also. He also has tremendous value because of his speed. Trade him if you are sit on steals because his stats are soon to drop and he's very, very valuable at the moment.

Projected final batting average: .270 (lower average means less steals means sell high)

Don't touch them

Richie Sexson

AVG .219

BABIP .276

Some are tempted to take Sexson because they've seen the bat produce before. The .276 BABIP shows that he is getting them to fall in play and still struggling. Steer clear, nothing is likely to change.

Projected final average: .220

Khalil Greene

AVG .226

BABIP .284

Same story with Greene. Steer clear. Nothing is going to change.

Projected final average: .225

Keepers

A simple look at the BABIP shows that these guys will keep it up

Chase Utley

AVG .299

BABIP: .286

Bengie Molina

AVG .315

BABIP .318

Brian McCann

AVG .310

BABIP .311

Albert Pujols (barring return from injury)

AVG .347

BABIP .333

Casey Kotchman

AVG .301

BABIP .298

Chipper Jones

AVG .400

BABIP .411

Something tells me the balls will keep falling for Chipper this year. Look out .400.

Now, if you can use this for hitters it can be used for pitchers too.

Buy low

Sooner or later the balls will stop falling for these guys

AJ Burnett

AVG against: .265

BABIP against: .344

CC Sabathia

AVG .265

BABIP .332

Andrew Miller

AVG .289

BABIP .349

Sell high

Sooner or later they'll start falling against these guys

Gavin Floyd

AVG .201

BABIP .199

Don't touch

The balls will keep falling behind them

Paul Byrd

AVG .294

BABIP .276

Livan Hernandez

AVG .342

BABIP .345

Keepers

The balls will not fall behind them that much more

Edinson Volquez

AVG .192

BABIP .281

(That's nasty)

Brandon Webb

AVG .233

BABIP .286

Tim Lincecum

AVG .229

BABIP .299

That's it for me. Bottom line target low strikeout, high walk, high homerun hitters, and high strikeout, low walk, low homerun pitchers and steer clear of the opposite.