Fantasy Football 2008: Running Back Sleepers

Last week, I wrote an article about some underrated quarterbacks who could start for your team in a pinch. In that piece, I talked about drafting your other positions early in the draft, and falling back on one of your sleeper quarterbacks after most of your opponents have already selected a passer. In some leagues, though, you may not want to pass up the big name quarterbacks. However, if you select a quarterback in the first couple of rounds, you're going to miss out on a lot of running backs. Such is the way of things. If your league awards a lot of points to quarterbacks in general, or if you just can't live without Tom Brady, you're going to need some sleeper running backs to fill out your roster later in your draft. For inexperienced fantasy footballers, this can be a daunting task, because you're going to have to settle for some players who are not guaranteed to have great stats, but with some research and luck, it's possible to find some talented players who have a chance to succeed.

Starting off the list of sleeper running backs is the best NFL running back last season- until week 7. Ronnie Brown was in the middle of a career year and looked like he could be the league's rushing leader for years to come until he tore his ACL trying to make a tackle on a New England interception return. For anyone who is unfamiliar with sports injuries, an ACL tear requires surgery and usually involves a six to twelve month recovery period. For NFL players, a big part of that recovery time is not just reconstructing the knee, but getting back into shape. A lot of players are unable to play at a high level the next year because they have not been able to train as they normally would. Brown's rehab has reportedly been going very well, however, and it was reported back in March that he had been running and lifting weights already. Both he and coach Tony Sparano have said that he should be ready to participate fully in training camp, which would go a long way toward getting him ready to start right where he left off last year.

The only other concern for Brown this year will be the return of Ricky Williams to the Dolphins' backfield. The team has said that they expect the two players to split carries to start the year off, which is a reasonable thing to say when they are not sure that either back can lead the rushing attack. This has been scaring a lot of people away from selecting Brown as their primary running back, but it's worth pointing out that Brown shared carries with Jesse Chatman at the start of last season, in a similar situation to what could happen this year. Ricky Williams will probably be helpful for the team as they ease Brown back into the offense, but as the season goes on, I expect to see Ronnie Brown gain confidence in his knee and start getting back to 20-25 touches per game. Williams is 31 and hasn't played a significant role in an offense since 2003, so it seems likely that the team will use him more sparingly if Brown is playing anywhere close to as well as last year.

One last thing to keep in mind is that even though Ronnie Brown had better stats than any other running back when he got hurt, his team hadn't won a single game. Every opponent the Dolphins faced was focused only on stopping Brown, because he was really the only player worth worrying about. Late in games, the running game sputtered as the team was forced to pass to conserve the clock. If the Dolphins improve at all this year, and they almost have to, there will be more room to run and more carries for both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. I've been seeing Brown drafted around the end of the third round in most drafts, as a second running back for most teams. This is a great time to grab him if he is still around in your draft, but I don't think you'd be wrong to reach a little for him in the second round, either. At the very least, you'll have a talented part-time player along the lines of Maurice Jones-Drew, but Brown offers considerably more upside, as he has already proven that he can be nearly unstoppable even on a losing team.

Patriots running back Lawrence Maroney is another running back who has been falling to somewhere in the second or third round in a lot of drafts this summer. For a player whose past production is as limited as his, most people will hesitate to give up a high draft pick, but I think he will end up being more valuable to fantasy teams than his draft position indicates. Consider that he will start the year as the starting running back on a stellar offense led by probably the best quarterback and wide receiver duo in the league. Yeah, but you're saying "wait, wasn't he the starter on the best offense last year, too?" Well yes, he was, sort of. There were several things working against Maroney and the Patriots' running game in general last year. First of all, Maroney underwent surgery on his shoulder in the off season, then missed a few games early in the year, and never really got on a roll until late in the season. This year, he has been healthy and in shape, so hopefully he will be ready to get off to a better start. Secondly, while Maroney was hurt, Sammy Morris stepped in and did a great job running the ball in his place. Bill Belichick likes Morris' game and was understandably hesitant to give the job right back to Maroney. Morris is still going to be the team's change of pace back this year, but he isn't getting any younger. Belichick loves veteran players who don't make mistakes, but he has to realize the talent that he has in Lawrence Maroney, and I think he will give him a good chance to prove that he has matured enough to help lead the team in his third year. The last factor that held Maroney back last year was the fact that the Patriots were absolutely pass-crazy. When your quarterback and wide receiver are breaking records left and right, there isn't a lot for the running backs to do. All I can say about that is that it can't last. Eventually, as was shown during the playoffs last year, the Patriots are going to have to run the ball. When their offense starts to balance out a little, there is going to be plenty of yardage and touchdowns to go around. Why not feed the ball to a former first round pick who averages four and a half yards a carry and hasn't even reached the prime of his career?

Michael Turner is new on the fantasy scene for anyone who never had LaDainian Tomlinson on their team before. Turner has been backing up Tomlinson and serving as a change of pace runner for the Chargers for the last few years, and he has played some excellent football while doing so. Now the Atlanta Falcons are giving him a chance to carry the load on their offense. Yes, I realize that this is pretty much the fantasy football equivalent of letting someone shoulder the responsibility at the local McDonalds, but before you dismiss the Falcons offense and Turner with them, take a minute to consider the things he has going for him. First off, Turner has the perfect blend of athleticism, experience, and youth that most teams can only dream of having at running back. He has spent the last four years watching and learning from the best running back in the league. Turner is only 26, which means he should be at the peak of his athletic abilities, which are considerable. At close to 240 lbs, he is a big guy to try and bring down, and most of the defenders who are big enough to tackle him aren't fast enough to catch him. Although he has never carried the ball more than 80 times a year, he has a run of over 70 yards in each of the past three seasons, so you know he's fast. Atlanta plans to run the ball a lot, which means Turner will probably get the ball at least 20 times a game, with backup Jerious Norwood taking any extra carries, the way Turner did in San Diego. There are concerns about Turner's durability, since he has never carried the ball as a full-time starter, but he is a strong, tough player, so I can give him the benefit of the doubt and see what he can do. Atlanta's sub-par offensive line presents one final concern, but Philadelphia and Minnesota are the only two teams Atlanta will play who had rushing defenses in the top ten last year, so even with poor blocking, there should still be some running room for Turner to do plenty of damage. At any rate, Atlanta's offense can't be worse than last year. This summer, Turner has been drafted in the third or fourth round, often behind such clunkers as Earnest Graham and the elderly Edgerrin James. Go ahead and let the other guys in your league grab a "proven" running back, while you take the early favorite for Breakout Player of the Year.

If you're not down with the breakout candidates, how about grabbing a comeback player instead? Julius Jones is getting a second chance in Seattle this year after playing his first four years in Dallas. He showed great potential as a rookie in 2004, when he missed the first half of the season due to injury but ran for over 800 yards and seven touchdowns in the last eight games. Although he ran for over 1,000 yards in 2006, he was unable to live up to expectations in Dallas and was left almost completely out of the offense as Marion Barber took over rushing duties in 2007. In 2008, Jones has walked into a dream situation for any running back, as he takes over the position that helped make Shaun Alexander the league MVP a few years ago. Although Seattle has had some key losses since then at wide receiver and on the offensive line, the real catalysts for their offense are coach Mike Holmgren and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck. With those two back for another year, the offense should remain potent. Although Julius Jones is a bit smaller than Shaun Alexander, he is arguably as good or better at receiving and blocking, which means the Seahawks will likely keep him on the field in more passing situations. Jones is also fast and doesn't mind a little contact, so he should have an easy time running up the middle or bouncing outside for big gains while defenses are forced to focus on Seattle's dangerous passing game. The only downside is that Jones could lose some touchdowns to Seattle's other addition at running back, T.J. Duckett, who is much bigger and better suited to goal line work. Even without a half dozen or so goal line touchdowns, I still expect Julius Jones to pile up yardage both running and receiving, and probably find the end zone six to eight times while looking like the NFC's answer to Joseph Addai. Considering that Addai will be a top five pick and you will probably be able to grab Jones in the fourth round of your draft, the value is obvious.

Meanwhile, across the country in New York, Thomas Jones will be trying to out-do his younger brother, Julius. In his first year with the Jets, Thomas Jones ran hard but was sabotaged by a bad offensive line and no support from the passing game. He had over 1,000 yards rushing for the third year in a row, but managed to score just twice on the way to a disappointing finish. This year, the Jets went crazy in free agency, signing talented blockers Damien Woody, Alan Faneca, and Tony Richardson to block for Jones. Richardson is getting up there in age, but is still one of the best blocking fullbacks in the league and went to the Pro Bowl last year. Alan Faneca is a ferocious run blocker at offensive guard, and was largely responsible for Willie Parker's success in Pittsburgh over the past few years. His addition alone will get Jones' touchdowns and yards per carry back up to healthy levels. Although Thomas Jones will be 30 by the time the season starts, he has been a durable back throughout his career and has avoided any significant injuries. That, combined with the fact that he has carried the ball more than 300 times only twice and has never had more than 314 carries, means that he has an excellent chance of staying healthy again this year. With an improved supporting cast, it's not a stretch to predict similar stats to what he had in Chicago, with over 1,300 total yards and a half dozen or so touchdowns. Like his brother Julius, his value has slipped so that you won't even have to think about drafting him until the fourth or fifth round. For a player who should be able to start for you team, that kind of value is hard to pass up.

The last couple of players I'm going to talk about probably won't be worthwhile starters for you team to start the year, but they are both being drafted late or not at all and could easily develop into stars by the middle of the season. As an owner of Reggie Bush in each of his first two seasons, it has been brought to my attention that while he gobbles up receptions and yardage, he is a pretty terrible runner. He hasn't topped 600 yards in either year, he has scored only ten rushing touchdowns, and he has been prone to injury. Enter Pierre Thomas. Thomas' game is similar to Bush's, except that in limited action, he has looked like a natural and explosive runner. Deuce McAllister still figures to be a large part of the Saints' running game, but he isn't getting any younger and his knees have required so much surgery that it seems difficult to believe that he will ever be able to carry the load for a team again. Aaron Stecker is also on the Saints' roster, but he should not be considered a factor any more, as he will turn 33 during the season and has spent much of this year trying to recover from a turf toe injury. I will be surprised if Thomas doesn't get a chance to handle the bulk of the carries for the Saints at some point this year, and judging by his highlight reel performance in week 17 last year, he could make good on that chance. Recently, he has gotten more media attention as a sleeper pick, but he is still available well into the second half of most fantasy drafts. Grab him as your fourth or fifth running back and you should be fine.

Tim Hightower was drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in the fifth round of this year's draft. Most people don't consider drafting an unknown rookie and unlikely starter to be good times for their fantasy team. However, this rookie's only real competition to start this year is Edgerrin James. In case you hadn't noticed, over the past two years James has not been the dominating runner he one was. Few NFL backs have ever carried the ball as many times as he has, and it's starting to show. James will turn 30 this summer, and he hasn't averaged over four yards a carry since 2005. Hightower looks like just what the doctor ordered. He is a small-school prospect, but he runs with excellent power and is a good ten pounds heavier than James, so he is already being considered as the team's goal line back this year. Hightower's powerful running style could help him gain favor with coach Ken Whisenhunt, who was a former Steelers assistant and loves a power running game. The Cardinals don't have a lot of other options at running back, so Hightower could easily turn into a poor man's Marion Barber, a player the coaching staff has compared him to, at some point during the year. In the likely event that Edgerrin James continues to slow down or misses time due to injuries, Hightower has an excellent shot at getting the bulk of the carries in a pretty decent offense. Most rookie running backs make excellent sleeper picks by their very nature, but Hightower has been flying completely under the radar and isn't likely to be drafted in your league until you burn one of your last picks on him. If you draft Edgerrin James, Hightower should be a no-brainer pick towards the end of your draft, and if you don't have James, he is probably worth the minimal risk anyway.

That wraps up my sleeper picks at running back for now. I'll be writing more about this year's rookie class running backs later this summer, but for now keep an eye out for my wide receiver sleepers coming up next. Thanks for reading.