Fantasy Football Draft - The #1 Pick in 2009

Who is the top fantasy pick of the 2009 fantasy football season? Many people assume that it is Adrian Peterson. But what about Michael Turner? What about DeAngelo Williams? Here is a brief fantasy analysis on these three guys, with an ending conclusion on who you should take first in your fantasy football draft.

Adrian Peterson

Minnesota Vikings

Adrian Peterson is undoubtedly the best running back in the National Football League right now, but is he the best fantasy running back? In the '08 season, he finished 3^rd in the "normal" fantasy points settings. Michael Turner outscored him by about 30 points and DeAngelo Williams topped him by about 45 points.

Peterson showed last year that he, like every other start athlete, cannot maintain "Superman" status. In his rookie season, his average per carry was an astounding 5.6 yards, but in the '08 season, his average went down nearly a full yard, to 4.8 yards. Last season, he scored three fewer touchdowns than he did in the '07 season (a season in which he played in two fewer games) despite receiving a rather large load of 363 carries. Peterson is sure to have another outstanding fantasy season, but given the fact that the Vikings still have major issues at the quarterback position (with or without Brett Favre), and given the fact that defenders and coaches and are devising better strategies to contain him, it will be a tough road for Peterson to improve his numbers from last season. You should expect a slight decline in yardage, but he should most likely get at least 10 touchdowns again.

DeAngelo Williams

Carolina Panthers

He was a huge fantasy scoring machine last season, but keep in mind that nearly 25% of his total points were accounted for in his two 4-touchdown games. Take away those two weeks and Williams still had a stellar fantasy season, but nevertheless, those huge weeks should be taken into consideration when making your vital top picks in your draft. You want to find somebody that is "consistent money," not "make or break" every week. Carolina has a very solid #2 running back in Jonathan Stewart, who is always ready to share carries with DeAngelo . . . and always puts up good performances when doing so. Whether he shares carries with Stewart or not, Williams is still a top fantasy running back, but having someone that is the "sole" running back of a team is a lot more comforting than having a guy with a backup that could probably be the main guy for more than half of the other teams in the league. It doesn't make things easier having a mediocre quarterback in Jake Delhomme and a receiving cast that, other than Steve Smith, is pretty much non-existent to protect the run.

Michael Turner

Atlanta Falcons

Peterson has been the first pick of many drafts, but Michael Turner can make a very valid and convincing argument that HE should be the first pick chosen in all fantasy football drafts. Turner has all of the ingredients you could possibly want in a #1 fantasy running back. He racks up yardage (approximately 1700 yards in 2008); he knows the end zone (17 TDs in 2008); and he plays for a team that looks primed to be one of the most reliable and consistent offenses in the NFC. Quarterback Matt Ryan is already looking like a superstar and with the tandem of Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to, it will be very difficult for defenses to put all of their attention on Turner. This offensive group has the ability to march down the field over and over again, thus giving Turner PLENTY of chances to hit pay dirt. Unlike Peterson or Williams, Turner really has no competition sitting behind him. Jerious Norwood is the talented #2 back in Atlanta, but he is really only utilized in obvious passing downs and/or lopsided game situations. Norwood had only three games in '08 in which he had more than six carries, so you know Turner will not have to worry about not getting enough touches. It's really difficult to find any negative aspects regarding Turner's fantasy value. You could point out that he had less than 50 yards receiving for the entire '08 season, but with the gigantic rushing totals he puts up, receiving yards should not even be a concern. Any reception that Turner gets is pure gravy.

CONCLUSION

1^ST Pick: Michael Turner

2^nd Pick: Adrian Peterson

3^rd Pick: DeAngelo Williams

*all statistics obtained from Yahoo Sports