Fantasy Football Draft 2010: Rating the Receivers

Simply put, receiver is the deepest position in any fantasy draft, in any format. There are so many quality receivers that a patient man could identify other draft needs and still get the likes of Michael Crabtree or Mike Sims-Walker in the sixth or seventh round of his league's fantasy draft.

Twenty, count 'em, twenty receivers had 1000-yard seasons last year, and of those fifteen (!!) averaged 70 yards per game or better. The great Jerry Rice averaged 75 yards per game for his career (and nearly 90 ypg during his world-beating peak of 1986-1995), which means that eight guys played at the Jerry Rice level last season. What does this tell you? Depending upon your position and needs, you still have an outstanding chance to draft one of the league's great receivers. Even if you totally mess up, you can still find some quality late.

My rankings are based on the following: the aforementioned Jerry Rice Standard, the quarterback each man catches passes from, and a consideration of his team's offense. I did not consider receptions because, frankly, a reception behind the line of scrimmage for a loss still gets points in a PPR league (which is why I don't compete in them). For the record, though, I did look at receptions last season and found this: there were six guys that caught 100 or more balls last season, and one of them was a tight end. Of the other five, only two found their way into my top rankings, and for good reason (for example, the New York Giants' Steve Smith caught more passes than Randy Moss, and I take Moss over Smith every time, period). Onward!

The Fine Nine

Randy Moss - Moss has a lot of detractors out there. There are lots of guys that want to call his commitment into play, who jump on him for what they perceive is a lack of effort. It doesn't help that Moss gives them their ammunition by admitting as much. Still, it's worth pointing out that only Larry Fitzgerald tied Moss for the most TDs by a receiver last season with 13. It's worth pointing out that Moss has only had two sub-1000 yard seasons and three in which he didn't catch 10 or more TDs in a twelve season career, none of which have occurred since Tom Brady became his battery mate. It's worth pointing out that Moss is in the last year of his contract and that he's likely to give a bit more effort than usual since it's probably the last big money deal he'll get before he slinks into Canton on the second or third try (some of those detractors are Hall of Fame voters). Draft Moss as your first receiver and collect the points.

Reggie Wayne - Reggie Wayne is Peyton Manning's lead receiver. That sentence alone might warrant his being the top WR. He catches everything in sight, he piles up the yards, and he finds the end zone regularly (12 times last season). Moreover, there are enough weapons on that Colts squad to keep Wayne from being double-teamed for too long. Wayne is as regular as Swiss clockwork, and just as reliable. Like Ray Rice at RB, Wayne might have the least baggage of any WR on this list. Draft him early because he will likely not last beyond the second round, and certainly not the third.

Andre Johnson - The kids like to call Johnson a "beast." Whatever that is, he's got numbers that warrant his taking the top WR spot overall, if it weren't for the fact that Randy Moss is in his walk year and Reggie Wayne plays pitch-and-catch with Peyton Manning. Johnson has been dominant in the last two seasons (over 1500 yards each), years which have coincided with Houston's inching closer and closer to their first playoff berth as a franchise. If there's a knock on Johnson, it's that he piles up the yards but he doesn't have a nose for the endzone yet; his next double-digit touchdown season will be his first. Still, you're not giving anything away to draft this guy.

Miles Austin - I love this kid. Last season, he was a waiver wire pickup that helped a lot of guys win their fantasy leagues. This season, his team adds Dez Bryant, which pretty much guarantees that Austin will remain single-covered. If he'd had one more season of production like last year's, I might have placed him\ higher on this list. Whatever ails the Cowboys, it's not their passing game, and Austin is the big stud in Big D.

Sidney Rice - How does a guy go from being "just a guy" after his first two ho-hum seasons to being a player you target early in your draft after his monstrous third? Add some Brett Favre. In Rice's case, the ability was always there, but finding a quarterback who could take advantage of it was another matter entirely (see Matt Leinart, Arizona Cardinals). Rice is helped by the fact that he's got Percy Harvin across from him (talk about a guy who is probably in this spot next season) and Adrian Peterson behind him, and Purple Jesus his own self conducting the orchestra. Look for another great year from Rice.

Greg Jennings - It may not be a coincidence that Jennings' best seasons as a pro occurred with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Jennings is averaging 1200+ yards per season since Brett Favre became persona non grata in 'Sconsin, and there is nothing about him, his quarterback, or his division that says he won't duplicate last season's success this time around. He's got a solid-to-underrated partner in Donald Driver, a solid-to-underrated running back, and a QB daring to be great. Jennings is absolutely reliable.

Roddy White - It sez so right here that Roddy White has a huuuuge season for Atlanta. Huuuuuge. His running back will be healthy. His tight end apparently rolled off of some robot production line. His QB is the Next Big Thing. Oh, and the Saints will not make the playoffs. White runs through the green, green grass of opposing secondaries untouched this season as the Falcons make a big move in the playoffs. This guy has been automatic since the professionalism switch flipped in his head (last three seasons: 1202 yards, 1382 yards, and 1153 yards), and he has given Matt Ryan the trustworthy target on the outside that every successful offense needs. When you find yourself in the midst of the inevitable wide receiver run during your draft, White will look a lot better than one of those fourth-tier running backs that some guys hoard like Topps baseball cards (you know this guy; he overspent for either one and spends the rest of the day justifying it, like he found the Rosetta Stone).

Calvin Johnson - It bears noting that Johnson registered over 1300 yards receiving (while leading all WRs in touchdowns with 12) during the first 0-16 campaign in NFL history. In other words, he was literally the ONLY guy in a Lions uniform that opposing defenses had to be aware of, and he still put up monstrous numbers with Dan Orlovsky et. al. at quarterback. It sez so right here that if he never plays another down of football, he's a first ballot Hall of Famer just for that performance alone. Last season he broke in rookie Matthew Stafford at QB. This season, Stafford breaks the rest of the league in on the fact that these ain't your dad's (or grandad's, if we're being honest) Lions anymore. The Lions won't win the division, and they might still end up being the doormat, but the distance from last to first has gotten dramatically shortened, and this team will take wins away from others needing them. Johnson is easily one of the best WRs in the NFC and in the discussion of best in the NFL, so draft him with no fear.

Larry Fitzgerald - It says a lot about Larry Fitzgerald's ability that I have him among the best receivers in the league, because he lost the only quarterback who could make the Arizona Cardinal offense go (Kurt Warner), he lost the best complementary receiver in the league in 1A Anquan Boldin (see below), and he's stuck with Matt Leinart and a running game that belongs on a milk carton. Still, Fitzgerald will find a way, as he always does, because he's too good not to. His numbers take a hit, but not so much that you wouldn't draft him.

The Lead Receivers You Should Draft

So there you are, all set at RB (because you took my advice and drafted before the bottom fell out of the market), and the nine guys listed above are all gone. Not to worry: the next nine are all lead receivers for their respective clubs, which will ensure their being heavily featured in their offenses. These guys aren't just place-holders...they can help you win.

Anquan Boldin - Boldin goes from being the second-best receiver in Arizona to being the best receiver in Baltimore, and this is a good thing for all parties involved. Boldin fits the team's rock-ribbed image as a physical receiver who doesn't back down from linebackers. Joe Flacco, who was already pretty good, suddenly got a whole lot better, as did Ray Rice, because Boldin demands the kind of respect that a lead receiver commands. Pencil him in for over 1100 yards and 10 or more touchdowns.

Brandon Marshall - Marshall can be a handful, both on and off the field. Last season, he made it seem as though Denver's rookie head coach Josh McDaniels had gravitas of a ball boy. There will be no such worries in Miami, however, as Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano will let Marshall know exactly where he fits in the pecking order. Then, too, they will make him very, very happy by targeting him early and often because Marshall is at his best when he gets to challenge linebackers and defensive backs for the football. (For my money, he and Anquan Boldin might be the most physical receivers in the league.) Marshall finally gives this offense something it needs: respect for an outside receiver. As long as defenses didn't care about Ted Ginn Jr. running past them and dropping passes, they could put eight men in the box to tame the Wildcat. Now? Marshall is a legitimate double-team assignment who will still get his catches and yards, and his constant agitation on the outside will make this offense look a lot better.

Steve Smith, NYG - It's a little weird that the Giants' Steve Smith is higher on many lists than the Panthers' Steve Smith (imagine the Bears' Adrian Peterson being ranked ahead of the Vikings' Adrian Peterson...), but the New York version is a reception machine. It's fair to say that he's the NFC's version of Wes Welker, a little guy that just moves the chains. Moreover, with bigger guys like Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham to occupy opposing defenses, Smith always manages to find the right seam for Eli Manning, and this in spite of the team not having much of a running game last year. If you're in a PPR league, move Smith into the above category and draft him early because he's a mortal lock for 90 or more catches.

Chad Ochocinco - Child, please. The 8-to-the-5 ain't higher on this list? With as many cornerbacks he put in the hospital from Ocho-itis? The Artist Formerly Known As Chad Johnson put in a throwback performance last season with a little over a thousand yards and nine TDs, and, better for all involved, he looked like he was having fun again. Now that Fella got his groove back, and considering a good RB in Ced Benson and a possible secret weapon at tight end, look for the NFL's biggest futbol fan to plan a few more celebrations.

DeSean Jackson - Whatever Eagles QB Kevin Kolb is, he's not that bad. Remember, this is an Andy Reid offense we're talking about here; Reid made any number of backups look better than Donovan McNabb over the last ten years, and Kolb is only the future of the franchise. That said, it will help Kolb's cause immensely to throw rainbows to the supremely talented (and supremely confident) DeSean Jackson. Jackson has blossomed into a legitimate match-up nightmare and anyone not named Revis or Asomugha will be hard-pressed to stay with him once he decides he's gone on a route. Jackson isn't going to give you more than 70 catches, but it's not the number of catches, but what he does with them that counts: he's all good for 1100-1200 yards and 10 TDs.

Vincent Jackson - Like DeSean Jackson above him, Vincent Jackson does a lot with a little...but he has to. Chargers' QB Phillip Rivers has a lot of mouths to feed on that offense, and most of them are huge (Vincent Jackson is 6'5", Malcolm Floyd is 6'5", and Antonio Gates is 6'4", easily the biggest collection of receivers in the league, if not in league history). Still, Jackson has worked himself into the discussion of the league's better receivers and is worth a look. In fact, it might not be a bad idea to handcuff either Floyd or Gates to Jackson and get the benefit of most of Rivers' passing yards...

Marques Colston - Marques Colston is Drew Brees' lead receiver. Like Reggie Wayne above, that fact alone should get him a lot higher on this list...except something seems to be missing. Maybe it's the fact that Brees is adept at finding the open man and not specifically targeting Colston to the mutual exclusion of everyone else on offense (the Randy Ratio, anyone?). Maybe it's the fact that other guys are stepping up, or that Colston is cruising and not maximizing his ability. Whatever the reason, if you draft him, you're going to get a classic feast-or-famine guy that will blow up against the Giants in Week 6 (8 catches, 166 yards, 1 TD), only to disappear three weeks later against Carolina in Week 9 (1 catch, 45 yards, no TDs), only to suddenly reappear against New England in Week 12 (4 catches, 121 yards, 1 TD). You will get the occasional monster game from him, but you will have to wade through a lot of 40-yard stinkers to get one.

Michael Crabtree - How good is Michael Crabtree? He held out. He had Alex Smith at QB. He missed six games and still managed 625 yards receiving. This year, he'll have the benefit of a full training camp, a starting QB who comes into camp as The Man, and an All-Pro at tight end in Vernon Davis. Crabtree will reward a lot of people's faith in him with a monster second year. It sez so right here that he easily exceeds 1000 yards receiving, with 9-10 TDs.

Mike Sims-Walker - What is it with the Jaguars and hyphenated skill position players? They've got a ton at RB with Maurice Jones-Drew, and now comes Mike Sims-Walker, the first legitimate outside threat this offense has ever had. Ever. For everyone hating on David Garrard, watch for a marked improvement in both his numbers and in the offense in general because Sims-Walker is the truth. If you're drafting him as your second receiver, you're probably going to be near the top of your league table.

The Best of the Rest

Here's where the real quality of this season's WR class shines. These guys should be drafted as second (or third) receivers, but they can occasionally merit lead receiver status. Value picks, all!

Percy Harvin - Harvin, playing opposite of Sidney Rice and in front of Adrian Peterson, might be the steal of the draft at WR. This guy is lead-receiver good, and he's only getting better. While others are looking at picked-over tight ends and low-end RBs, take Harvin and smile.

Donald Driver - Driver is as certain as death and taxes. Take him as your second receiver and pencil him in for his usual 1100 yards and 7 TDs. Nothing spectacular, just consistent.

Jeremy Maclin - Maclin plays opposite of DeSean Jackson, which means he will not get targeted as often. Still, look for 700-800 yards receiving and a handful of TDs, and the occasional breakout game. Maclin makes an excellent second banana.

Dez Bryant - Bryant is a rookie, but age ain't nothin' but a number for this kid. He will get every chance to shine in Dallas, and he will not disappoint. He might not get 1000 yards...but then again, he might. Don't draft him too early, however; this guy mid-to-late-mid good, and doesn't warrant a higher pick until we've gotten a season out of him.

Julian Edelman - If Wes Welker doesn't recover fully from his ACL, Edelman becomes the Possession Guy to Randy Moss' Deep Threat. Edelman has shown the same kind of chops that made Welker a fantasy secret weapon for years, and he's younger. Still, all depends on Welker. If Welker is healthy, Edelman isn't worth wasting a draft pick on; if Welker wheels are too wobbly to work, Edelman could be the football version of Wally Pipp here. Keep a close eye on this situation throughout training camp.

Hakeem Nicks - Nicks is like a hand grenade; it's only a matter of time before he explodes. Still inconsistent, and still looking for catches with Mario Manningham and Steve Smith among Eli Manning's checkdowns, Nicks is occasionally capable of greatness. He will give you two to four 100-yard receiving games, and, in a deep-enough league, that might be enough to help you steal some wins.

Steve Breaston - Breaston began life as the slot receiver/injury fill-in for the Fitzgerald/Boldin Cardinals. Now that Boldin has moved on, Breaston steps into an expanded role that he should fill nicely. The problem here isn't him, or his playing opposite the great Larry Fitzgerald, but who the Cardinals will run out at QB. Frankly, Matt Leinart stinks out loud and the Cardinals best alternative to Leinart is still playing on Saturdays. Still, Breaston will make something out of nothing, just not much of it due to the dearth of talent at QB.

Pick A Jets Receiver (either Braylon Edwards or Santonio Holmes) - There is some negative discussion about the all-star nature of the current Jets, none of which I personally believe. People misunderstand Rex Ryan's ability to motivate his players on a mannish level; put another way, he won't have anyone complaining for a bigger piece of the offensive pie because he's not afraid to put it on them and make them earn a bigger piece. Mark Sanchez, sorry haters, is the real deal at QB, so passing the ball around won't be a problem. In fact, if both Edwards and Holmes play to their capabilities, this might be the best WR tandem in the league. Look for Ryan to make sure they are by making it a constant competition between the two and not letting either man believe that he's got an edge over the other for an instant. As long as both are hell-bent on proving themselves week in and week out (and proving Ryan 'wrong' for not openly proclaiming him The Man), the only people who suffer will be the Jets' opponents.

The Rest of the Rest

If I did not mention a player, that guy isn't worth drafting, period. I see you, Chicago Bears fan, waving that Devin Aromashodu jersey frantically, and I'm telling you that the best receivers on that team start at RB and tight end. Having Mike Martz run the offense will help, but all the squiggly lines on all the paper in the world won't help a Bears receiver catch the football in a for-real tackle football game.

Feel free to draft the likes of Santana Moss, or Nate Burleson (this is the year! I'm telling ya!), or T.J. The Commercial Was Funnier Than His Lack Of Production, or anyone in Pittsburgh. Those guys are nothing but the kind of wasted pick that costs teams championships, both in real football and in fantasy football.

Sources:

Pro-Football-Reference.com

NFL.com

Wikipedia.org