Fantasy Football Draft: Rating the Quarterbacks

Please allow me a brief discussion of statistics before moving to fantasy quarterback values.

When I rated running backs, the first thing I threw out was the spurious 1000-yard rushing season, because that equates to 62.5 yards per game. They don't cast bronze busts of players that average 62.5 yards per game on the ground.

Similarly, do not be fooled by the 3000 yard passing season. Over 16 games, that equates to 187 yards per game. In other words, even some Chicago Bears quarterbacks have managed the odd 3000 yard season.

For my rankings, I have three levels: the 4000 yard season, the 3500 yard season, and the 3000 yard season. Amazingly enough, there were starting QBs in the NFL that did not reach 3000 yards in passing last season; they are not discussed here. Onward!

The Joe Namath Level

As much as we like to think that we are being historically relevant when we gush over the fact that Drew Brees came within a completion or two of Dan Marino's 5084 yard masterpiece, we forget that Joe Namath was the first QB in NFL history to break 4000 yards passing in a season...or that he did it long before the rules committee put skirts on receivers in 1978. Namath was the kind of dominant that still echoes all these years later, and every quarterback at this level in fantasy football can almost carry your team by himself. (Note: assume 25-35 TD passes for each man at this level.) One more thing: despite arbitrary fantasy rules designed to lessen the impact of quarterbacks, the fact is that the very good ones are going earlier and earlier in fantasy drafts, so you might not want to wait if one of these guys is on your wish list.

Peyton Manning - It is true that we probably use the phrase "first-ballot Hall of Famer" far too often these days with regard to certain players. It is also certainly true that we are not misusing the phrase with Peyton Manning. All Manning has been is the most consistently great quarterback that the league has seen since perhaps Joe Montana (or, for those of a certain age, Roger Staubach). Manning delivers excellence each and every year, and his leadership and understanding of his offense and his skill position players is unmatched. In 12 seasons, Manning has thrown for 4000 or more yards 10 times.

Drew Brees - If Manning isn't the first QB taken in your draft, Drew Brees should be. Brees has been nothing short of spectacular since the Saints gave him an offense to run. Even if the Saints fail to repeat (and I think that is pretty likely), Brees is a mortal lock for 4000 yards or better. A no-brainer.

Tony Romo - Remember, this is fantasy football, not the real thing. Too many people will want to hold Romo accountable for his postseason failures. Let them. We don't count the playoffs here, and Romo has been as statistical monster during the regular season in his career. Romo has easily eclipsed 4000 yards in two of the last three seasons, and this year he gets a full season of both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant on the outside. Whether the 'Boys make the playoffs is irrelevant; you can make your fantasy playoffs with Romo as your starter.

Brett Favre - As long as he is upright, he's a threat to throw for 4000 yards, period. Favre doesn't need training camp. All he needs is receivers that can run underneath his rainbows and a running back good enough to keep defenses honest (check and check), and he can do this until his arm falls off. Forget anyone else's pre-rankings...Britney Favre or Purple Jesus (whichever you like) is pretty much automatic here.

Aaron Rodgers - It's probably not an accident that Greg Jennings' emergence as a great wide receiver coincided with Aaron Rodgers promotion to Green Bay's starting quarterback. Rodgers, still prickly about the whole Purple Jesus thing (and perhaps rightly so), plays with a chip on his shoulder and goes out to prove that he should have been starting a long time ago, Brett Favre or no Brett Favre. Like Favre, Rodgers is nothing if not consistent. You're giving nothing away with this guy at QB.

Philip Rivers - Rivers is on a roll. He was pretty good his first two seasons as a starter (a bit better than the 3000 yard level), and he has been great in his last two (easily over 4000 yards in each of the last two seasons). Rivers has the tallest complement of receivers on record (Antonio Gates is the short one at 6'4", if that tells you anything) and he has a brand-new running back to break in...and, yeah, go ahead and put him down for 4000.

Tom Brady - I'd actually have Brady lower if it weren't for the fact that Randy Moss is in his walk year. Brady is occasionally brilliant, but, for fantasy purposes, there are better QBs. This is not to say that he's somehow become toxic, far from it, only that, like Romo before him, we can't allow what we know of him in the post-season to affect what is true of him in the regular season. He's good enough to reach the 4000 yard plateau and likely will, but there are better passers available.

Joe Flacco - Flacco is the new guy crashing the party here, but I absolutely love his chances to get into the 4000 yard passing club. In his rookie season, he threw for 2971 yards and 14 TDS; last season, he threw for 3613 and 21. This season, he adds Anquan Boldin. You do the math.

Matt Schaub - Last season, Schaub led the league in passing yards. While it might be a bit much to expect the same thing this year, it is not too much to expect Schaub to pass for 4000 yards again. He's got arguably the league's best receiver and a coach that knows how to take advantage of his gifts, and this team is trying to break on through to the other side and finally make the playoffs. There's a lot to like here, so draft without fear.

The Phil Simms Level

These guys are good enough to help you win, provided you have drafted well elsewhere. (Note: expect 20-30 TDs from each passer at this level.)

Eli Manning - Eli is just as consistent as Peyton...he's just not as good. Still, expect around 3500 yards and over 20 TD passes, because Tom Coughlin will be coaching for his job again. The last time that happened, the Giants won the Super Bowl. If this team bogs down, Coughlin is likely to unleash Eli, and you could end up with a world beater for about seven or eight weeks straight.

Matt Ryan - It's possible that Ryan breaks 4000 yards; it's likely that he tops out at right around 3400 yards or so. In the NFL, that's great and will help his Falcons into the playoffs. In fantasy football, you'll need some studs elsewhere to make up the difference.

Kevin Kolb - I like this kid to do well in Philly. He's got some good receivers, and a coach that knows how to get the ball into the endzone. He just needs an actual season as the Eagle's starting QB before I give his credit a higher rating. Even so, I trust him to hover at or around 3500 yards this season while he gets his sea legs under him, because this is an Andy Reid offense after all; Reid made a lot of also-rans look better than Donovan McNabb while D-Mac was hurting, and he didn't have long-term plans for them. Reid plans to coach Kolb for a long time, and I'm going to guess that Reid knows what he's doing.

Jay Cutler - There's a lot to like about Cutler, like the fact that he's already got a 4000 yard passing season on his record, or the fact that he's got mad scientist offensive coordinator Mike Martz calling plays for him that will work. In fact, Cutler would have been in the next level except for one small thing: his receivers couldn't catch a bullet in a war zone. This sums the Bears up perfectly: they took a guy that was better than Gale Sayers at returning punts and kicks, and turned him into a receiver that is worse than Willie Gault. Still, Cutler will likely check it down to a resurgent Matt Forte or one of his super-dependable tight ends and probably eclipse the 3500 yard mark, even if the Bears don't exactly set the world on fire in the very competitive NFC North.

Donovan McNabb - D-Mac is a first-ballot Hall of Really Good entry. He's not great, and he never has been, but he's always been very good (think Bert Jones, or Danny White, if either of their careers had lasted longer). McNabb will instantly make the Redskins a lot more consistent, and will carry the kind of gravitas that will shut up knuckleheads like Clinton Portis (a season with Terrell Owens will do that). Still, like Jay Cutler, McNabb will find that there is not a lot to work with on the outside, which will limit him. Still, he ain't bad.

Carson Palmer - For a couple of seasons, Carson Palmer bordered on greatness. Then everything in his left knee went PING! on a tackle, and he's been mortal ever since. I don't know that he'll ever regain the form that saw him post back-to-back 4000 yard/Pro Bowl seasons before his injury, but I do know that he's good for close to 3500 yards on sheer guts and guile.

Mark Sanchez - For everyone hating on Mark Sanchez, I'd like to remind you that you don't hate what isn't good; for example, it's kinda pointless to hate on the St. Louis Rams because they'll likely get drilled again week in and week out this season. But the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets aren't the Lambs; they feature a Ryan at head coach (and the Ryan hasn't been born that can keep his trap shut), a defense that could qualify for the R.I.C.O. Act as an ongoing criminal enterprise, and The San-Chize at quarterback. This kid is very good, and made a lot happen with nothing last season...then he got Braylon Edwards, who suddenly remembered how to hang onto the football once he'd escaped Cleveland. Now he adds Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes to Edwards and stalwart Jerricho Cotchery. There's no way this kid doesn't become a star, no way. Feel free to consume mass quantities of Hater-Aid...

Matthew Stafford - As the Saints proved last season, no one can suck forever. There was a time, back when your grandfather was doing the kind of stuff that you forget he knew how to do, that the Lions were pretty stinkin' good. Then came the epic ineptitude of the Ford family's ownership, and the Leos have basically stunk out loud since the Kennedy Administration. Thus, the Lions are waay overdue for some good fortune, and Stafford represents the future. This kid is the goods. His first season showed that he ain't skurred, and this season he'll pass for 3500 yards while he gets this signal-caller thing figured out. Seriously. Do not be afraid to draft this kid if you have loaded up at other positions.

The Chicago Bear QB Level

There's only one reason to draft anyone on this list: they are a bye week replacement.

David Garrard - Garrard will only, ever be just short of solid. If you have to draft a bye week replacement, Garrard is probably the best option of the rest of the bunch. He won't hurt you, unlike some of the other quarterbacks available, and he might even help you...for that one week. This is not a player to fall in love with; he is strictly the patch on the tire.

Chad Henne - Henne is a great example of why fantasy football is not real football. Henne is well-liked by his staff and teammates in Miami, and his prospects for the upcoming season look great, as he adds Brandon Marshall to his receivers. That said, Henne has limitations where the fantasy owner is concerned. Those limitations are not due to a lack of ability, but rather due to a game plan that emphasizes the Dolphins embarrassment of riches at running back. As a result, Henne will post numbers that will be fairly pedestrian to the fantasy owner, but will probably see his team into the playoffs. Play this guy against some weak sister during your regular starter's bye week and you'll be happy with the result.

Jason Campbell - Of all the bye week replacements you can draft, Campbell is probably the one with the biggest upside. He only survived several different offensive coordinators and a severe lack of talent in Washington, and still carried himself like a professional, showing genuine improvement over the course of his career. Coming into Oakland, Campbell immediately becomes the leader the offense has lacked since Rich Gannon's cannon ran out of fodder. Expect him to take immediate charge of the huddle and get guys to perform; having played with Clinton Portis will make him much more vocal with the underperforming Darren McFadden, for example. Campbell is not a guy to trust, mind you, but, of all the bye week replacements, Campbell is the one most likely to blow up for Kurt Warner-esque totals against the likes of Kansas City or Cleveland.

Kyle Orton - Last year's 3800+ yards was something of a mirage; this season, he won't have Brandon Marshall around. Do not start unless your main guy is irretrievably broken.

Alex Smith - There's a reason why Alex Smith took this long to get into the game, and it's not slow, incremental development. Sure, he has a couple of reliable targets in Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, but he'll miss them as often as he hits them. The 49ers best quarterback isn't on the roster yet.

Matt Cassell - As Cassell (and everyone else) found out last year, it's one thing to be the understudy starring in the hit Broadway smash; it's quite another to be the star in the off-off-off Broadway project. Cassell is a classic example of why we don't overvalue career backups that have one great season (see Hostetler, Jeff). His receivers couldn't catch a cold in the Yukon, and varsity tryouts for running back will extend into October now that the indestructible Thomas Jones is on board to take carries away from Jamaal Charles.

Ben Roethlisberger - What's to like here? He's going to serve a suspension to start the season, at which point, if the team is winning, he'll be Wally Pipp'ed in favor of veteran Byron Leftwich. If the team is struggling, his return won't change things much because his best receiver is in New York helping Matt Sanchez get better. Roethlisberger was never one to light up the scoreboard with passing statistics to begin with; he was always more of a steady presence who didn't screw it up when it mattered. Last season was the first 4000 yard campaign of his career, and things were looking up for him professionally before he went trolling for college students in small town Georgia in the off-season. When he comes back, it will be to an old Hines Ward, an ineffective running game, and a fan base that would like to see him fall into an abandoned well. Don't touch him unless your other options are Trent Edwards or Matt Leinart.

The Rest Of The Field

Do not be fooled by overly optimistic preseason reports. If I have not mentioned them, they are dreadful. The only reason to have Sam Bradford on your roster at all is if you're in a Keeper league, and that's still not a reason to waste a draft pick on him. Relying upon anyone below the Chicago Bears Level only puts you on the clock for next year's draft.

Sources:

Pro-Football-Reference.com

NFL.com

Wikipedia.org