Fantasy Football Rules of Thumb

What on earth is a rule of thumb anyway? If you're referring to Brett Favre, then maybe it had something to do with his ability to play with a broken one. But what if you never had Favre on your team? What good is this article then? According to wikipedia, the origins of the phrase "rule of thumb" may have something to do with a law that made it legal to beat your wife with a stick no thicker than your thumb (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_of_thumb, makes for a good read). While it's safe to say that this is not applicable here and probably unfounded, I would like to hope that some of these rules of thumb will encourage you to legally beat your opponent by a margin much larger than your thumb, my thumb, or any other thumb.

Drafting Your Team

In the early rounds of your draft, I've found that it's a great idea to draft young, fresh running backs, and older, tested quarterbacks and receivers.

Running backs tend to peak suddenly and burn out quickly. They may only have a year or two at the top of their game, so try to get ahead of that curve. If a guy has been carrying his team for more than a year or two, don't risk taking him as your first running back, because he is likely to break down on you. This has been demonstrated repeatedly over the years, usually at the expense of my fantasy team. Anyone who had Terrell Davis or Jamal Lewis after their 2,000 yard seasons can tell you that when it comes to running backs, always sell high. Watch out for guys who have handled the ball anywhere close to 400 times in a single season. This includes rushing attempts and receptions. Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson are recent and obvious examples, but how many unsuspecting owners drafted Steven Jackson or Rudi Johnson early in the first round last year? The St. Louis RB was only 24, but it is probable that a lot of his injury problems had something to do with the whopping 346 carries and 90 catches he had the year before. Johnson had been the Bengals' go-to guy for years but he was hailed as a model of consistency rather than a walking injury risk.

Quarterbacks and receivers sometimes take a while to develop. Make sure your guy is ready to be a fantasy star before you spend your early pick on him. These guys can be inconsistent for years before they prove themselves, so it's actually better to react than to predict with these guys. Wait until they have a solid year, don't assume that this will be their breakout year. In recent years, players like San Diego QB Phillip Rivers and Philadelphia WR Reggie Brown have been pegged to have breakout years to the point that some fantasy footballers were picking them as top starters at their positions. Both players failed to make any dramatic improvements last year and let a lot of those people down. There isn't much of an argument that both players have some talent, but so far they have been vastly overrated when it comes to their fantasy football value.

On the same token, beware of the "third year wide receiver theory". This is a widely accepted theory that states that receivers usually break out and experience a large statistical jump in the third year of their career. Be careful when trusting your fantasy team to this theory, after all it is just a theory. There is some statistical evidence that receivers do become more comfortable with the game in their third year. Just look at Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards for some living, breathing proof. But please, remember that this theory assumes that said receiver will indeed break out. Some guys don't, believe it or not. Just look at Troy Williamson and Reggie Brown as examples of third year receivers who sure didn't look great last year. Some guys start their career off great, and then hit a permanent slump. Just look at Michael Clayton. Some guys break out in their second or fourth years, or are just great to begin with, like Marques Colston or Larry Fitzgerald. As always, don't lock yourself in to a certain way of thinking, and please don't assume that your little-known third year receiver will be a great starter for you right away.

With most players, you shouldn't worry about age as much as you would think. It's much more important to look at the player's individual circumstances. Everyone thought Brett Favre was old and washed up, but that seems silly now. The bigger problem was that his team sucked. When surrounded with talented receivers, a running game, and good defense, he rebounded in his last year to be one of the best in the league at age 38. Larry Johnson isn't old, but the Kansas City RB has seen his value take a nose dive since his offensive line fell apart and his heavy workload led to injury problems. This leads me to my next point.

Don't be afraid of all running backs over 30, and don't think that guys under 30 are safe from breaking down. While it's true that running backs tend to wear down much earlier than other players, this has more to do with their work load than their age. Fred Taylor is able to play at a high level even though he's long past 30, largely because Maurice Jones-Drew gets enough carries that he only has to run the ball around 220 times a year. This applied to Warrick Dunn after he turned 30 as well, because he never carried the ball more than 286 times a season, and that wasn't until two years ago. Last year was his worst season as a Falcon, not necessarily because he's 33, but maybe because he set a career high for carries the year before. Shaun Alexander is younger than both those guys, but he hasn't had a good year since 2005, when he carried the ball a whopping 370 times.

Wide receivers usually hit a wall in their mid 30s. Don't stop drafting a guy as soon has he turns 35, though. Look for signs of slowing down. Lingering injury problems or a decrease in production at the end of last season are better indicators than age. Last year, Marvin Harrison was great statistically. However, those who watched him during the Colts' Super Bowl run would have seen that he was not having as much of an impact as he usually does. Even though he was still ranked ahead of Reggie Wayne by most experts at the beginning of 2007, it was pretty clear to some of us that he was no longer able to be the number one receiver on that team for an entire year. This year, I'll be going out on a limb and suggesting that people stay away from Terrell Owens, which is probably a good topic for another day, but just realize that he was unable to step up when the Cowboys needed him late last year and in the playoffs. That's a little bit of a red flag for a player who was once dominating in every big game he played. Why not grab another superbly talented receiver, one who doesn't happen to be 34, like Andre Johnson, or Braylon Edwards?

To sum up, there are a wide variety of draft strategies. For years, experts told us to load up on running backs at all costs, drafting 3 or even 4 running backs before the rest of your starting lineup. Others scoffed at all the running back crazed masses and loaded up on tons of reliable quarterbacks and receivers. Some swear you have to have the top tight end, Gates, Gonzalez, or the flavor of the year. Some guys like to have the Ravens or Bears for defensive dominance. Now a lot of fantasy gurus are suggesting that running backs have lost their value, because most teams are now using at least two backs in a rotation, robbing the position of most of its previously inherent value. My advice is to not follow advice. Don't lock yourself into picking any one position at any particular point in the draft. Don't feel the need to draft running backs with your first 3 picks, and don't write them off either. Focus on the players, not the position, and grab the players that you think will do best. Imagine how silly you'd feel if you convinced yourself that you needed running backs in the first and second round last year and passed on Tom Brady, even though you thought he was in for an "okay year". Or if you had decided that running backs were no longer valuable, so you didn't bother with Adrian Peterson because he would be sharing carries.

A good strategy is to break your player rankings down into at least 3 groups. One group of players you feel are in for monster years, another group for guys you wouldn't mind starting all year, and another group of guys who might be better as backups in case of bye week problems or injuries. Then, don't worry about positions, just try to grab as many of those "monster" guys and then as many "starter" guys as you possibly can. If your starter quality receivers are getting thin, but there are plenty of running backs left, then wait another round for a running back. Be confident, trust your rankings, and try to build a well rounded team with some depth.

Picking your lineup

I'm not a big believer in playing matchups, streaks, or anything of that sort. A lot of fantasy football dudes will not agree with me here, but I believe a little patience can go a long way throughout the football season. There is virtually no way of accurately projecting a player's production from week to week, just because there are too many variables, some of which will always be unknown to even the greatest fantasy experts. So, stick to your guns when trying to choose your starters. Chances are, you're not going to have an entire roster full of consistent players, but the worst thing you could do is go back and forth between two inconsistent players. If you stick with one guy, you might have some rough games, but at least when he does have a big game, you'll get all the rewards. A good example from last year is Drew Brees. Brees and the Saints started the year off horribly, for no apparent reason. Yet Brees still finished among the league leaders in pretty much every category, because when he found his game, he really found his game. Sure, your team probably sucked the first four weeks of the season, but if you benched him in week six, or god forbid, weeks eight or nine, when he threw for 7 TDs and no INTs, you probably finished off your season in embarrassing fashion.

If you are lucky enough to have consistent players, then don't get cute with your matchups. There is absolutely no reason to bench Payton Manning or Tom Brady, no matter who they are playing. It just doesn't matter. Chances are, they will be fine, and that other excuse for a QB that you picked up last week might not be. Even against the Bengals.

If you have a player who isn't performing, try to find the problem. If you can't, then you probably shouldn't bench him. Be patient. On the other hand, if that player happened to be oh, I don't know, let's pick some more on Shaun Alexander, then the problem was his health and deteriorating abilities due to age and injuries. In that case, don't hesitate to find a servicable backup and stick to that guy. Unless you can reasonably expect that things will not get better for a player, always be patient, don't play musical chairs with your fantasy team.

Plan B
If none of this helps, then try growing a beard and taking it like a man, or an exceptionally hairy woman.