Fantasy Football: Runningback Rankings for 2008

OK boys and girls, it's that time of year again - time for the fantasy draft! Just a few words of wisdom before I get going with your top 25 of 2007:

#1. These picks are not the "safe picks" that you will read in every magazine. If you want to take a risk and come out on top, then keep reading. If you're going to cry when a player underproduces, then you might want to stop now.

#2. Runningbacks are a thick crop this year. Normally, you would have to draft a runningback in the first round - not necessarily true this year. When a player like Carnell Williams is universally listed as a #20 pick, you really have more leeway than usual.

#3. There IS a tier break. As a matter of fact, there are a few - let's start with:

TIER ONE:

#1. LaDanian Tomlinson: No surprise here. It's safe to assume that he can't/won't repeat last year's insane performance, but it's also a safe bet that he will still have mad receptions and even a few passing touchdowns. LT is a fine example of a fantasy workhorse - gets the job done, and doesn't miss games.

#2. Stephen Jackson: I don't care HOW good Larry Johnson is - Jackson just has too much upside. If I weren't worried about his receptions dropping, I might have listed him at #1 over LT. Bulger is going to be a fantasy powerhouse this year, and guess who gets all those goalline carries? You got it. Add in his 90 (WOW!) receptions, and in points-per-reception leagues, he might actually rank above LT.

#3. Larry Johnson: I'm willing to make a bet that LJ decides that he wants his money more than Priest "Turning-Your-Head-Sure-is-Hard" Holmes does. At his best, LJ is an unstoppable machine. At his worst, he's the #3 RB. With Huard on the way out of KC and defenses expecting LJ, I'm leaning towards the latter.

TIER TWO:

#4. Shaun Alexander: Oh how the mighty have fallen. A broken foot has dropped this guy to number seven on a few draft sheets. Those people are idiots. SA is the real deal, and while he may be removed from his insane 2005 season, he's still good for at least 12 on the ground.

#5. Joseph Addai: Call me crazy, but I think Addai has the serious skills necessary to become the new Edgerrin James. First of all, he racked up almost 1,500 total yards and 8 TDs while splitting time. Toss in some extra pressure on Manning this year (the offensive line is going to be a little weaker this year), and look for Addai to start seeing more passes in the flats.

#6. Willie Parker: Yes, yet another player ranked above Frank Gore. Parker has been one of the most consistent fantasy RB's over the past few years, and a conservative head coach will make sure that the ball stays on the ground more than ever. Look for over 1500 yards on the ground, and at least 12 touchdowns.

#7. Frank Gore: He should be higher, and has he not broken his hand, he would have been. Gore is on a weak team, which would be fine, except that he's a pass-catching back. If his hand doesn't feel 100% by the season opener, those 60 catches in 2006 will seem like a distant memory.

TIER 3:

#8. Brian Westbrook: While he may not get the big touchdowns, Westbrook is a yardage machine. Throw in the 77 receptions in PPR leagues, and even though he's a little injury prone, he's still worth having - especially when McNabb needs to throw the ball when Reggie Brown is double-covered.

#9. Laurence Maroney: Yeah, this is a stretch, I know. Too bad. Maroney takes over the solo role for Corey Dillon, and not only did he amass 7 TD's while splitting time (in Dillon's favor), but he's also going to be on a team with Moss and Stallworth - two guys that are considered to fragile to go over the middle in the red-zone. Hello touchdowns.

#10. Rudi Johnson: You know what you get with Rudi - 1200 yards and 10+ TDs. It's been that way forever. THAT IS NOT A BAD THING. Here's hoping that with the rest of the Bengals on parole, he'll get a few more red-zone shots.

#11. Travis Henry: Big risk/reward pick. The Broncos have a knack for giving huge years to any runningback (remember when Mike Anderson was unstoppable and splitting time?), and they went out of their way to get Henry. The only possible downsides here are that Henry gets hurt, or that Shannahan goes with Mike Bell (or hell, even the towel boy) for goal line situations.

#12. Reggie Bush: NOW we're getting somewhere. Most people say this is way too early for Bush, and I have only this to say: 88 receptions, 742 receiving yards, and he's a runningback. Factor in Deuce's fragile ankles, and Reggie could be sitting on a full-time gig. Probably the biggest risk/reward pick in the draft.

#13. Maurice Jones Drew: The big bowling ball is a great player - as long as Fred Taylor is out. With Taylor still on life support, MJD loses some serious carries in an already anemic offense. MJD will be the starting back by the end of the season, but it's up to you to decide whether he's worth it here (you certainly won't get him any later than this).

#14. Willis McGahee: Here's a sleeper for you. A second round runningback who can put up numbers anywhere near his 2004 performance is worth his weight in gold. The Ravens are also going to be racking up garbage yards to run down the clock, so give McGahee a serious look.

TIER FOUR:

#15. Marshawn Lynch: Could easily become McGahee of 2004, which is incredibly tempting. He could also be a waste of a pick. I personally don't want to find out in the second round. Let someone else take him here, if you can let it go.

#16. Edgerrin James: A shell of his former Indy self, Edgerrin is finally in a position to succeed again. Leinart looks to be getting into the groove of things, and hopefully, the Edge can finally see some goalline loving to go with his soft hands.

#17. Ronnie Brown: He comes into every season overweight and lazy. In a season where he should have had every opportunity to bust out (the passing game certainly wasn't going to do it for him), and he barely cracked 1,000 yards. Trent Green might help, but don't hold your breath.

#18. Clinton Portis: Yes, he is ranked low. So very, very low, in fact. With Ladell Betts looking like the runningback that Washington wanted all along, Portis is in serious jeopardy of splitting time/losing his job. The upside remains, but don't think that Portis is going to get all the carries this year.

#19. Cedric Benson: Barring a major injury that sends Adrian Peterson's value skyrocketing, Benson looks to be the new Thomas Jones. The difference is, Benson can absolutely bulldoze when he's on the goalline. Teach the guy how to catch (8 receptions in 2006), and we'll talk.

#20. Thomas Jones: Not in the best system for his talents, but Jones looks to get a lot of carries. Whether or not his body can hold up remains to be seen, but keep an eye out for him, as he may post some serious numbers.

#21. Ahman Green: He's old, he's frequently injured, and he's on the Texans. The only reason I rank him is because the Texans will rely on the run more with Schaub at the helm, and Green is also an excellent pass-catching back.

#22. Carnell Williams: About one week ago, Williams would have been 6 spots higher. Then Pittman got permission to snag every third down and goalline play. It's too bad, too, because Williams was going to be catching a lot more balls this year.

#23. Adrian Peterson: He's a very talented guy, but let's not forget, he's on Minnesota. That means he plays the Bears twice (death to stats), and has Tavaris Jackson as his quarterback (so much for keeping the defense honest).

#24. Brandon Jacobs: This big beast of a runningback looked poised to make a splash in 2007 with Barber gone, and as a "show of faith," the Giants brought in Reuben Droughns to eat carries. However, Jacobs has got to be the goalline back. He's just too big. If Droughns gets hurt (very possible), Jacobs moves to top 12 status. You have been warned.

#25. Marion Barber III: Julius Jones is heading out, and Barber knows it. Problem is, until it's a done deal, they're going to be splitting some serious time. Barber is still going to be a touchdown machine - but will he get the yardage to go with it? Pray that Jones decides to go on the "Rex Grossman 2005 Diet Plan."