Fantasy Football Scouting Report

It's August now, which means that fantasy football season officially begins. With live drafts beginning soon, now is the time to look for the sleepers that can make your team, and to avoid the dangerous fantasy football players that can cause you problems all season long. With that in mind, here's a position-by-position breakdown of the best and worst available at each fantasy football position.

Quarterback

Sleepers:

1. Trent Green, Kansas City. The Chiefs offense should be just as potent as it has been the past few years, and the defense should continue to struggle, despite the addition of Ty Law at cornerback. Green was second in the NFL in passing yards a year ago, though his 17 touchdown passes were a five-year low. With a few more touchdown passes, and a pre-season ranking as low as twelfth among quarterbacks on some pre-season cheat sheets, Green could be a premier fantasy starter available as late as the fifth or sixth round.

2. Brett Favre, Green Bay. Favre isn't going to go out with a Super Bowl this year, but for fantasy football teams he can be an excellent backup, and maybe even a serviceable starter. Favre was third in the NFL in passing yards a year ago, and with another struggling Packers team, he will be forced to throw often. In leagues that don't penalize for interceptions (Favre led the league with 29 last year, 12 more than any other QB), his numbers will outperform his mid-round availability.

3. Michael Vick, Atlanta. On the field, Vick's numbers haven't matched up to the hype, but in fantasy football terms, Vick is another capable quarterback who could be available late. Ranked 15th among quarterbacks by SI.com, Vick's rushing numbers dropped a bit in 2005, but even at 600-700 rushing yards and 6-8 touchdowns on the ground, his total numbers can be equivalent to a top-five quarterback in most leagues.

Dangers:

1. Kurt Warner, Arizona. With the addition of Edgerrin James and two excellent receivers, Warner is getting big-time attention from fantasy football gurus. But Warner remains a major risk. He hasn't played more than ten games in a season since 2001 - and that was three teams ago. His per-game numbers are still solid, but Warner is better suited as a late-round flyer than a building block for a consistent team. Warner can still get it done, when healthy, but by now he costs two picks - one for him and one soon after for a quality backup.

2. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh. Disregarding his off-season injuries, Roethlisberger's fantasy football value doesn't match his on-field value. Roethlisberger was 21st in the NFL in passing yards a year ago; with a healthy Duce Staley and the traditional Pittsburgh emphasis on the running game, Roethlisberger will be no more than a fantasy football backup this season.

3. Eli Manning, New York Giants. Manning didn't finish strong a year ago, and while his raw numbers were good, there are some danger signs. The Giants will face a tougher defensive schedule this year (see below), and there are some question marks on the offensive line. Manning can still be a capable fantasy starter, but will likely go in the second or early third round in many drafts, which looks to be too high.

Running Back

Sleepers:

1. Warrick Dunn, Atlanta. Dunn is the perennial fantasy football sleeper, it seems; always too small, too old, past his prime, facing competition, too fragile, too risky. And yet, Dunn produces consistently. He was eighth in the NFL in rushing yards a year ago; only low touchdown numbers dropped his fantasy value. Ranked out of the top 20 running backs in a number of preseason mock drafts, Dunn can easily reach a combined 1,500 yards and 6-10 touchdowns, which would make him an excellent pick in the fifth round or later.

2. Domanick Davis, Houston. One of the reasons that the Texans didn't draft Reggie Bush was because they had a very capable back in Davis. Facing a fourth-place schedule this year, the Texans may get to six or seven wins. That will give Davis a few more 30-carry games and push his stats into the top-ten of fantasy football running backs. Davis may be available as late as the third round, and will be a very valuable second running back and possibly a solid starter at the most important position in fantasy football.

3. Reuben Droughns, Cleveland. Droughns has gotten it done, rushing for over 1,200 yards in each of the last 2 seasons; his 1,232 yards last year were 11th in the NFL. The problem last season? Two touchdowns. With young quarterback Charlie Frye likely to lead the Browns' offense, Droughns should get more touches this year, and if he even reaches eight touchdowns, Droughns will be a decent second option, or excellent backup, available in the late rounds. An off-season arrest for domestic violence mars Droughns' record, but come Week 1 Droughns should still be the primary back behind an improved offensive line.

Dangers:

1. Tiki Barber, NY Giants. Coming off a career season in 2005, Barber's numbers figure to drop, maybe significantly, in the 2006 season. Divison winners a year ago, the Giants will face a first-place schedule this year. With six games against a strong run-stopping division, plus games against Tampa Bay, Seattle, Chicago, and Carolina, Barber figures to face significantly better run defenses than a year ago. Eli Manning's late-season difficulties mean that defenses will focus on Barber with run blitzes and eight in the box, daring the younger Manning to beat them, until he proves that he can. Ranked in the top five by many pre-season cheat sheets, Barber should be passed on until at least the second round in most fantasy football drafts.

2. Larry Johnson, Kansas City. I'm not saying Johnson is going to rush for 800 yards this year, but isn't the LJ bandwagon moving awfully fast? Let's take a step back and realize that Johnson hasn't started a full season yet and just lost a Hall of Fame left tackle to retirement. While Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and LaDainlian Tomlinson seem to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league, an overwhelming offer for the top pick - or a bona-fide additional pick to drop down a spot or two - would be a difficult trade to turn down.

3. LaMont Jordan, Oakland. Jordan is ranked in the top ten among running backs on a number of fantasy football sites, but buyer beware. Jordan ranked only 15th among running backs in rushing yardage last year, and his nine touchdowns were in the middle of the pack. With shaky Aaron Brooks behind center, the Raiders' offense will likely struggle, and it's unlikely that Jordan's attempts - or touchdowns - will improve if the Raiders slog through another 5-11 or 6-10 season.

Wide Receiver

Sleepers:

1. Deion Branch, New England. Now the number one receiving target for last year's leading passer, the former Super Bowl MVP could be primed for a breakout fantasy football season. With David Givens gone, and Troy Brown now 35, Branch will be the focal point of the Patriots' passing attack. A training camp holdout may be reason to fret, but if Branch gets into camp within the next two weeks, he can be a consistent receiving threat available in the middle rounds.

2. Keyshawn Johnson, Carolina. At 34, Johnson isn't the same player he was with the New York Jets, but he is a smart, precise route-runner who should do well in his new surroundings. With an accurate quarterback in Jake Delhomme and a speed demon in Steve Smith to take pressure - and double-coverage - away from him, Johnson is set up for success with the Panthers. On a team without a bona fide receiving threat at tight end, Johnson may be the number one option near the goal line. 800 yards and ten touchdowns will make Johnson a serviceable number two or three receiver who could be available very late in your fantasy football draft.

3. Santana Moss, Washington. Hard to believe that last year's second-leading scorer at wide receiver can be considered a sleeper, but it seems that way in many of the preseason mock drafts. Moss can probably be had as late as the third round, which is a steal for a top-five receiver. While Moss may not duplicate last year's 1,400 yard total, he should remain a bona fide number one receiver, and in this writer's mind, a better choice than more touted players like Randy Moss (no relation), Marvin Harrison, and Torry Holt.

Dangers:

1. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis. Harrison is still a great receiver, and still a number-one receiver on a solid fantasy squad, but he no longer deserves the high rankings he gets from a number of publications (CNNSI.com ranks him sixth among wideouts, while About.com makes him the twentieth overall pick in their mock draft). If you can get him in the fourth round or later, Harrison is a worthwhile pick. But even with Peyton Manning still behind center, Harrison is thirty-four years old. While you can expect another 1,000-yard season from Harrison, players like Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald, Washington's Santana Moss, and even Miami's Chris Chambers have more upside.

2. Roy Williams, Detroit. Williams is young, and talented, for sure. But he's also surrounded by two other young, talented wideouts - Charles Rogers and Mike Williams - and he hasn't played 16 games in either of his first two seasons, nor has he reached 1,000 yards. The addition of Jon Kitna and Josh McCown is not the answer to Williams' troubles. Williams may be worth a late-round gamble, but relying on him - or any Lion, for that matter - in a starting position is too big a risk right now.

3. Randy Moss, Oakland. Moss simply hasn't been the same player the last two seasons. Injuries have slowed him down, for sure, but Moss has still averaged just over 60 yards per game receiving - not even the equivalent of a 1,000-yard season. Maybe Moss' injuries have healed, but he's still stuck playing with an erratic quarterback and an average running game. Moss is still a productive player, but before drafting him in the second or third round check and see if more consistent and equally productive receivers are available for your fantasy football team.

Tight End

Sleepers:

1. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh. Miller had over 450 receiving yards and six touchdowns as a rookie a year ago. While he's no Antonio Gates, Miller may be a capable starter if you miss out on the top tight ends available. With Antwaan Randle-El gone from Pittsburgh, Miller may see more balls thrown his way. Miller could be a top-five fantasy tight end - and should be a top-ten tight end - available in the eleventh round or later.

2. Kellen Winslow, Cleveland. The talent is there, but two years of injuries make Winslow the ultimate late-round gamble. With a young quarterback and no impact wide receivers, the Browns may look to get Winslow involved early and often this season. If he can stay healthy, and (relatively) sane, Winslow may be a bargain. With a small crop of top tight ends in the NFL, players like Winslow are often worth a late-round roll of the dice.

Dangers:

1. Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers. Yes, he's now the highest-paid tight end, but he's also playing in San Francisco, and he's a rookie. He may make plenty of catches, since Alex Smith has so few big-play options, but how many touchdowns can you expect Davis to catch with such an anemic offense? Bear in mind that the 49ers still have an excellent tight end in Eric Johnson, their leading receiver two years ago, returning from injury, and that he may take some of Davis' plays - and catches. Davis looks to be no more than a serviceable fantasy backup and should be drafted either very late or not at all.

2. Jeb Putzier, Houston. Putzier's put up middle-of-the-road numbers in Denver the last two years, but now joins a Texans team that is stocked with tight ends, including incumbent starter Mark Bruener. While Putzier will probably get the lion's share of tight end catches, there may be enough competition, and enough trouble with the Texans' passing game, to keep Putzier at the bottom of the tight end rankings. Players such as Minnesota's Jermaine Wiggins, the Jets' Doug Jolley, and Tampa Bay's Alex Smith are better served as backup tight ends than Putzier.

Defense

Sleeper:

1. Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were second in the NFL in sacks a year ago and tied for third in takeaways, yet can be had for a song in many fantasy drafts (CNNSI has them ranked 17th!) With games against a number of quarterback-challenged teams - including Chicago, Houston, Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, and two against the Jets - the Dolphins have the potential to be a top-five defense in most fantasy football leagues. If you can pick up the Dolphins late in your draft, jump at the opportunity.

Danger:

1. Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens aren't quite the defense they once were; they finished tenth in turnovers and eighth in sacks a year ago. While first-round draft choice Haloti Ngata may help the defense, a tougher schedule - including four games against division rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and four games against the solid NFC South - means the Ravens will likely be an above-average defense in 2006, but no better.

Kicker

Sleeper:

1. Neil Rackers, Arizona. Rackers is not a sleeper on most cheat sheets, but he may still be unknown to many casual fans. Rackers set an NFL record last year with 40 field goals; his 19 field goals from 40 yards or longer were of great value to owners in leagues who count additional points for longer field goals. With the addition of Edgerrin James, the Cardinals offense should remain potent, and Rackers should be near or at the top of fantasy football kickers this year.

Danger:

1. Nate Kaeding, San Diego. Kaeding was twelfth among kickers in scoring a year ago, but 22nd in field goals made, including none from over 50 yards. With a new quarterback, the Chargers offense may slow down this year, and Kaeding looks to be a below-average fantasy kicker in 2006.

Check back in October as I review these predictions at the midpoint of the fantasy football season. Enjoy the season and best of luck!