Federer Express Derailed by Marcos Baghdatis in 3rd Round at Indian Wells, CA Tourney

Because Roger Federer, number one player in the world for 274 weeks, lost to Marcos Baghdatis on Tuesday, March 16, the Round of 16 at the 2010 PNB Paribas Open will be Federerless. This development was completely unexpected. Federer had not lost in the third round of an ATP tournament or earlier for eighteen months. Federer has won this tournament three times (2004, 2005, and 2006). His most recent tournament was the Australian Open grand slam in January, which he won.

The Indian Wells tournament, which includes both men and women, is an important Masters Series 1000 tournament, with all the (uninjured) top men's players in attendance-Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, Davydenko, Roddick, Soderling, et al. Although Federer has suffered from a lung infection since winning the Australian Open in January, he is thought to be fully healthy now. However, the time away from competitive tennis may have contributed to his lack of intense concentration at times during last night's match in Indian Wells.

How Baghdatis Won

Although Federer took the first set 7-5, Baghdatis rebounded in the second set, saved two match points in dramatic fashion, and then reasserted himself to take the set 7-5 to extend the confrontation to a third deciding set. According to the ATP tour website (full citation below), this was the first time Federer failed to convert a match point into a win since his memorable final against Rafael Nadal on clay in Rome in 2006.

In the third set, it appeared that Federer was back in the driver's seat when he was up 4 games to 1, but the persistent, not intimidated Baghdatis broke back. Roger had another chance to close out the match when the score reached 6-5 in his favor, but for a third time he failed to close the deal. Baghdatis forced a tiebreak, which he won as much on the rattled Federer's errors as on his own skill. Federer finished the match with more than 40 unforced errors. The final score was 5-7, 7-5, 7-6 (4).

At the conclusion of the match, colorful Baghdatis with the pony tail, infectious smile and ever-present enthusiastic cheering section not only kissed the court, but also made the hand gesture for the number seven. He was signaling that this, his seventh attempt to slay the tennis giant, had been successful. His 0-6 head to head record against Federer had suddenly shifted to 1-6. Reportedly, he told the spectators within earshot "Seven is my lucky number." Later in interviews he said it was "the best win of his career," although Roger Federer noted in his interview that both had played better when they met in the Australian Open final in 2006.

Baghdatis, age 24, has long been known as what sportscasters call a "dangerous" player-capable of brilliance and intensity beyond what his current world ranking number might convey. His highest singles rank so far was 8^th in August 2006-a year when he broke through to the top tier of players internationally and met Roger Federer in the finals of the Australian Open. However, his injury-plagued seasons in 2008 and 2009 were much less successful, hitting a low of 151 in July 2009 and rising since then. Baghdatis won the Sydney tournament in the run-up to the Australian Open in January-a 250 point ATP tournament.

What Did Federer's Loss Mean?

For his part, Roger showed his usual sportsmanship at the post-match net greeting, but looked understandably downcast and perhaps shaken and made a hasty exit. The "best of three" match lasted two hours and twenty-two minutes. In his post match interview he said that he needed to play more matches and expected to improve. He said: "It's something that always is tough, coming from a long layover and all of a sudden playing matches. But, the season is long. There's no need to panic here."

It is also worth noting that Roger Federer, perhaps more than most top players, reserves his very best tennis for the four Grand Slam tournaments-Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and the U.S. Open. In those most prominent tournaments, of which he has now won 16, he seems to have an extra gear. Even if his opponent is playing exceedingly well, as Andy Roddick did at Wimbledon in 2009, Federer has some uncanny ability to come up with an ace, or a zinging cross-court winner just when needed.

Also, he has tremendous stamina and emotional staying power to outlast his opponents in the long, long matches in the slams. Men play best three out of five in the slams and matches can go on for four or even five hours. While Federer may flag a bit in the first or second sets, he will usually be the last man standing at the end. It seemed to me watching the Federer-Baghdatis match in Indian Wells that it was not long enough, not enough acts in the play, for Federer to do his magic. Intuitively, I felt that if it had been a best three of five contest he would have found a way to win.

Federer is next scheduled to play in Miami in the Sony Ericsson Open-another very popular Masters Series 1000 ATP tournament that opens March 24. Baghdatis will meet Tommy Robredo of Spain, the 18^th seed, in the Round of 16. If he prevails against Robredo, which he may well, he will almost certainly meet Andy Roddick of the U.S. in the quarter-finals-a challenging matchup for both players, despite Andy's much higher ranking.

Sources:

Tennis Channel Coverage of the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden

"Baghdatis Stuns Federer, Faces Down Three Match Points" by ATP Tour Staff and other data from http://www.atpworldtour.com