Felix Hernandez Does Not Deserve the American League Cy Young Award
Imagine for a moment that three of the best marksmen in the world are competing against each other for accuracy but shooting on different days. Competitor A shoots on day 1 and the weather is perfect. Over 70% of his shots are taken with no wind present.
Competitors B and C shoot on the next two consecutive days and each day there is strong winds present and both of them take 75% of their shots into 15-20 mph winds.
Competitor A who competed under ideal conditions will almost certainly score better for accuracy than competitors B and C will. But does that make competitor A the best marksmen?
That is how one must look at the American League Cy Young Award debate this season.
Games Started in Pitchers Parks
Felix Hernandez - 71%
C C Sabathia - 26%
David Price - 25%
Felix Hernandez made 71% of his starts this season under ideal conditions in baseball parks that greatly favor pitchers over hitters. C C Sabathia made 26% of his starts in parks that favor pitchers while David Price made 25% of his starts in parks that favor pitchers.
Other than won-lost records Felix Hernandez has better overall stats than both Sabathia and Price but does that mean he was a better pitcher even though he pitched under far more favorable conditions?
Games Started in Hitters Parks
David Price - 75%
C C Sabathia - 74%
Felix Hernandez - 29%
What if King Felix had made 74% or 75% of his starts in ballparks that favor hitters like Sabathia and Price did? Would his stats be as good? Very unlikely. And Sabathia and Price would both have had better stats if they pitched 75% of their games in parks that favored pitchers.
Won-Lost Records
Felix Hernandez pitched for an awful Seattle Mariners team in 2010 but still managed to finish one game over .500 at 13-12 for a winning percentage of .520. Quite an accomplishment some might say. King Felix managed to pitch .143 percentage points better than his dreadful team managed. That is a big margin and highly impressive but and this a huge But Both C C Sabathia and David Price were better.
C C Sabathia went 21-7 (.750) for the New York Yankees who were 95-67 (.586). So Sabathia pitched .164 percentage points better than his team. That is 15% better than Felix Hernandez did.
David Price went 19-6 (.760) for the Tampa Bay Rays who were 96-66 (.593). So Price pitched .167 percentage points better than his team. That is 17% better than Felix Hernandez did.
Winning Percentages Above Team
David Price - .167
C C Sabathia - .164
Felix Hernandez - .143
Both C C Sabathia and David Price pitched to higher levels than the teams they played for than Felix Hernandez did in 2010.
Another relevant point is that both C C Sabathia and David Price were pitching in meaningful games with playoff berths on the line. With the Seattle Mariners getting off to a dreadful start Felix Hernandez did not pitch in one meaningful game all year.
Games Started Under Pressure
C C Sabathia - 34
David Price - 32
Felix Hernandez - 0
A pitcher who compiled his stats under ideal conditions without any pressure does not deserve the Cy Young award especially when other pitchers who pitched under much tougher conditions still managed to pitch to much better winning percentages than the teams they pitched for.
Felix Hernandez does not deserve to win the American League Cy Young Award in 2010.
Sources:CBS Sportsline Player Index
Published by Joe Dorish
Joe Dorish is a writer who lives in the NYC area. He writes primarily about the things he is passionate about - sports, business, economics, weather and travel. He loves to drive and used to own a Limo company. View profile
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15 Comments
Post a CommentHernandez was 3 -7 with 4 no decisions in his division ( and 2 wins came in final month against Rangers who were coasting in ) C.C. went 8 - 3 with 6 no decisions in much tougher AL east
And again the stat you are using likely has both Sabathia and Price too low as they pitched in tougher parks.
Mike, you do not understand what I'm saying. Put Hernandez in any other park and he wouldn't have been 174. The stat your using notoriously favors pitchers in pitchers parks and hurts pitchers in hitters parks. Did you bother looking at Cliff Lee's stats? Obviously not but he was 168 in Safeco and then 109 in Arlington in 2010. He ended up with a 130. Hernandez was about 2% better than Lee in Safeco so King Felix's real number should be around 132-133 or Lower than Sabathia or Price.
There is a stat that adjusts to ballparks called ERA+ among the three top candidates you know who led them?(by a large difference I might add) King Felix with 174. Price had a 145 and CC had an above average but not over-wellming 134. So your argument just got flushed.
Are all ballparks the same? Is it easier to hit a HR in Citizens Bank in Philly or Citi Field in Queens? If you adjusted all of King Felix's stats like ERA for the parks he pitched in 2010 would it go up or down? If you adjusted the ERA's of the other pitchers in competition with him for the Cy Young would they go up or down? Baseball games are not played in a perfect box and if you are going to use stats they should be adjusted to recognize that fact before awards are given out. That's what I am saying.
So basically you're saying that pitchers that happen to play for teams in pitcher friendly parks are automatically discredited for consideration of the Cy Young Award? So did Tim Lincecum not deserve the last two NL Cy Youngs because he pitched in the spacious AT&T park? Look what Felix did when he pitched against the Yankees in New York. You're basis of decision is just as bad as those who only look at Win-Loss record.
Yeah thanks J.T. Stats-wise the toughest pitcher in the AL to hit all year was Joaquin Benoit.
CC & price both pitched in pitchers parks & if you dig deep enuf you can find stats for either side like CC had an era of 6.75 on tue. nights when the temp. was below 61.25 deg. & Felix had a 3.25. All 3 have the numbers to win. good luck to all 3. thanks for the chat.
Look at what happened to Cliff Lee. He was 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA for the Mariners and then 4-6 with 3.98 ERA for the Rangers. What happened? He went from a great pitchers park to a lousy one. 71% of King Felix's starts were in pitchers parks this season. Odds are Hernandez is going to win anyway because historically the guys who vote for the awards have rarely been savvy enough to recognize park effects.
So you are saying that any pitcher that pitches at safeco field shouldnt win the cy young because you think his stats are padded? Remember that roughly half of Felix`s starts were not at safeco field & he has dominated hitters home & away including your beloved Yankees.Safeco field only helps against homerun hitters anyway & nobody is getting base hits off him either.