Few Surprises in Baseball Hall of Fame Voting

The Baseball Writers Association of America recently announced the results of its 2011 Hall of Fame voting, and things played out pretty much as expected: Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven were elected, while Jack Morris continued to draw strong support among the also-rans. Although nothing shocking jumps out from the vote totals, there are some mild surprises, making for interesting speculation about the future.

First, while Morris increased his support from 52.3% of voters in 2010 to 53.5% in 2011, Barry Larkin made a much more impressive jump, up to 62.1% from 51.6%. In the process, Larkin has leapfrogged Morris as the most likely candidate to gain election in 2012, when Bernie Williams will be the most viable new candidate on the ballot. With all due respect to Williams' Yankee pedigree, he doesn't have an extremely compelling case. All signs point to a new Red in the Hall of Fame for 2012.

It's also somewhat encouraging that Morris' Hall of Fame campaign has seemingly stalled well below precipice level in the year before a weak ballot. Morris, quite simply, should not be elected to the Hall of Fame, and next year is probably his best chance to get over the hurdle. It will be hard for him to pick up over 20% of the voters in the course of a year.

A couple of other eyebrow raisers can be found among the first-year candidates. In particular, Rafael Palmeiro was named on 11% of ballots, meaning he'll be eligible for at least one more year (any candidate who fails to draw 5% support is removed from future ballots). Meanwhile, Bagwell showed up on 41.7% of ballots. Both of these totals are higher than what many had expected for these two former sluggers who have been marked with various levels of the steroid taint. In Palmeiro's case, that means a positive drug test. For Bagwell, it means loud whispers since he retired about possible usage during his career.

As for the two winners in this sweepstakes, both will be deserving enshrinees. That Alomar was named on 90% of the ballot after missing election in his first year is indicative of both our capacity to forgive and forget, and of the backlash against suspected steroid users. Blyleven's 79.7% tally is the logical conclusion of his inexorable march to the Hall over the last several years. A player falls off the ballot after fifteen years, and this was Bert's fourteenth try, so the push to get him in has been accelerated recently. It's paid off, as "Be Home" Blyleven is, indeed, safe at home with one year to spare.