First Quarter Primary Fundraising Results Show Surprises

First quarter primary fundraising results are in, and the results are somewhat surprising. Neither McCain nor Giuliani, the two candidates who had originally been the major Republican contenders, did as well as people had expected, and Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney came out of nowhere to raise $21 million. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with a record breaking $26 million, with Obama's results yet to be reported, but estimated in the $20 million range.

The Republican shakeup comes as quite a surprise. Giuliani had come from behind, riding his wave of 9/11 support past McCain, but still in close contention with the moderate Republican. Romney, whose support remains in the single digits, amazed everyone by coming out ahead, only $5 million short of Hillary Clinton. McCain, after recently lowering his predictions, raised only $12.5 million, a rather paltry sum for a candidate of McCain's standing. It should be pointed out, though, that McCain's money came from 60,000 donors, a much larger base than Romney's, which seems primarily to consist of rich friends.

Romney's success, while impressive, does not necessarily mean much. Although it does mean that he has twice the money McCain has to spend, bolstered by an additional $2.5 million in loans, and it does look impressive, first quarter results are not completely telling. One is reminded of the 2000 election, when John Edwards came out ahead of everyone, riding primarily, as Romney did, on the support of a few wealthy supporters. However, that time, although Edwards ultimately lost, his fundraising success did get him enough attention for Kerry to tap him as his running mate.

Hillary Clinton, in addition to breaking the record, is employing a new technique: asking for a general election donation upfront. Current election laws stipulate that the maximum amount that any individual can donate to a primary campaign is $2,300, along with another $2,300 for the general election. Clinton asked for the full $4,600 upfront, promising to return the other half if she does not receive the nomination. This practice, which is expected to catch on in the future, has artificially boosted her total somewhat.

What seems to be most important in first quarter fundraising is not so much the amount of money raised, but how close candidates came to their target. While the money does matter, what matters more is the impression the public receives from the candidate. A successful looking candidate is more likely to receive future donations than a less successful one. This bodes well for Mitt Romney and badly for John McCain.
Sources:
http://www.nytimes.com
http://www.wsj.com