Five Reasons Green Bay Will Beat Chicago

I'm not exactly a Green Bay Packers fan, but since my two favorite teams - the Eagles and the Seahawks - are both out of the NFL Playoffs, I'm rooting for Aaron Rodgers and company to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy on Sunday, February 6.

First, the Packers will have to get past bitter rival Chicago in the NFC Championship game on January 23 at Soldier Field in Chicago.

Here's why I think they will do just that:

1. Aaron Rodgers

I've been following Rodgers since his days at Cal, and most of the time since had been spent on the bench behind Brett Favre. Until the 2008-09 season, that is, when Rodgers took over as starter. Since going 6-10 his first year at the helm, Rodgers has compiled a 23-12 record the past two seasons as Green Bay's starting QB, and has been superb in three playoff games as starter, including last year's 51-45 loss to Arizona, in which he went 28-for-42 for 422 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. In two playoff wins this season, Rodgers has thrown for 546 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions. That includes a 31-for-36 performance against Atlanta, with 366 yards and three TDs. In two games against the Bears in the 2010 regular season, Rodgers passed for 545 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, and also scored one rushing touchdown.

2. Momentum

Green Bay is feeling good and coming off a huge win - 48-21 over the NFC's top-seeded Atlanta Falcons in the divisional round on Saturday, January 15. That win came on the heels of a 21-16 wild-card victory over my Eagles. Best of all, the Packers won both games on the road, which should give them confidence heading to Chicago's Soldier Field. Sure, the Bears have a bit of momentum, as well, heading into the game against Green Bay coming off a playoff win, but frankly, Chicago's 35-24 victory over Seattle on Sunday was far less impressive than the Packers' win over the Falcons.

3. Timing

As is the case with any tournament playoff system, the NFL Playoffs are all about which team is hottest at the end of the year. The Packers are certainly that, having won their last four games, including a 10-3 home victory over Chicago to end the regular season and earn a spot in the playoffs. Green Bay is rolling on both sides of the ball, with the defense stifling Atlanta playmakers Matt Ryan and Michael Turner in the divisional round and the offense in good hands behind Rodgers' stellar play. I see no reason that won't continue against the Bears.

4. Jay Cutler

I admit it, I'm not a big fan of the Bears quarterback, although I have to give him some props for cutting down on that ridiculously high interception total from 2009 (26 picks?!?!?). But perhaps, in reality, I should be giving the Bears props for sticking with him after that. Cutler has thrown fewer than 14 interceptions in a season only once - his rookie year of 2006-07, when he tossed five picks but only played in five games. He has a career average of 1.2 interceptions per game, and has thrown three in two games against Green Bay this year. Point being? I see a pick or two in Cutler's immediate future, possibly in a key situation late in the game that could help the Packers wrap up a trip to the Super Bowl.

5. History

Anyone who pays any attention to the NFL knows there's a long and bitter rivalry between the Packers and the Bears. It is, in fact, the NFL's longest-running rivalry, encompassing 181 games since 1921. The Bears have the overall edge in the series at 92-83-6. What's history have to do with the Packers having an edge in the NFC Championship game? Only this, really: Green Bay has won three of the last four over Chicago, the one loss in the last two years coming in a 20-17 decision at Soldier Field on September 27 in a game I thought Green Bay really should have won but gave away. Robbie Gould converted two field goals in the final four minutes to seal the deal.

Sources:
2010 NFL Playoffs, ESPN.com
No. 1 seeds both one-and-done in NFL playoffs, Yahoo! Sports
2010 Green Bay Packers Schedule, NFL.com
Bears-Packers Rivalry, Wikipedia.com
Jay Cutler, Yahoo! Sports