Five Reasons the Miami Heat Will Not Repeat

One of the more frustrating things to see in the NBA is when experts and fans come to a consensus on a team incorrectly and justify it with logic that doesn't make sense. This season, this is shown by the opinions on the defending champion Miami Heat.

Lets get one thing straight right now. The Heat won the championship last year. You shouldn't use logic based on last year's team to justify this year's success. The Heat have very little chance of repeating their title this season. But you don't have to take my word for it, here are the facts:

Dwayne Wade is hurt and this is the number one reason the Heat will not repeat. According to him, he is going to try to rehab and come back. But he also was quoted as saying, "The main thing I can do is feel that same pain again. That's one thing I don't want to feel." The problem is that even if Wade makes it back, which in itself is no guarantee, he won't be the same D-Wade fans are used to. He knows he can re-injure his separated shoulder easily by driving to the bucket or taking contact. If you think that won't affect his play, you just are not accepting the truth.

If Dwayne can't perform as usual, the weight of the burden will carry over to their big center, Shaquille O'Neal. Unfortunately, Shaq's age will deter him from significantly altering the outcome in the playoffs. I know he has posted twenty-plus points and ten-plus rebounds in two straight games. But he is coming off a long absence of playing. Now the Heat are going to ask him to play thirty to forty minutes a game to get them into the playoffs. I just don't think he will have enough in the tank to be the Diesel for seven straight games in the playoffs. Just look at the past couple of years:

· In 2004, his last season with the Lakers, Shaq posted averages of 21.5 points per game, 13.2 rebounds and played over forty minutes a game.

· The next season, his numbers dipped slightly as he only put up 19.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and just over thirty-three minutes a game. He also missed two of the playoff games due to injury, a first for his career.

· Even last season as the Heat won their first championship, Shaq was playing a distant second-fiddle to Wade. His production stayed the same, with a slight decrease in points again, with thirty-three minutes a game played.

So what can we expect from Shaq? Thirty-some minutes a game? He is a good second option, but at this point in his career he simply can't carry the load for his team anymore.

Of course, the Heat are composed of more than just Shaq and Wade...right? Lets look at the Heat's roster after Wade and Shaq:

• Jason Williams
• Antoine Walker
• James Posey
• Gary Payton
• Jason Kapano
• Alonzo Mourning
• Eddie Jones
• Udonis Haslem

These eight players will be called upon to help take the Heat to postseason glory. But the Heat have found quickly that they have no consistency on their team outside of Dwayne Wade. Remember that even before the Heat had Shaq, they were still a winning team that reached the playoffs and got out of the first round. Now, with the supporting roles mostly revamped and in a weaker Eastern conference, the Heat struggled to keep in the eighth playoff spot without their big man.

The popular consensus is that the Heat's supporting players consist of former superstars and All-Stars that can explode for big contributions in any game. My take is that the Heat really can't depend on anyone outside of Dwayne Wade and Shaq. Say what you will, but the opposition is not going to wait for the Heat to figure out who has the hot hand night in and night out.

But why has there really been such a big change from last season? The Heat players have seemed to lack motivation all season long. Look at the first game of the season. The Heat lost by over 40 points at home after showing off their championship banners. Remember when Antoine Walker and James Posey were suspended for having too much body fat? As mentioned before, the Heat should have been at least five or more games over .500 even without Shaq. Winning a championship makes a team overconfident. They think the regular season doesn't matter and they can flip the switch anytime they want. That just isn't true.

And that also leads us into my final point. The Heat will not have a top seed in this year's playoff run. With no Dwayne Wade, they would probably be happy being one or two games over .500 and sitting in the fifth or sixth spot. That means they are going to play good teams from round one. Tough teams throughout the playoffs will be Miami's undoing. Every team wants to dethrone the defending champions and will bring their best games to the table. I saw it firsthand when my hometown Pistons tried to defend their title in 2005.

For all these reasons, the Miami Heat will find themselves watching the NBA Finals at home this season. They have not been healthy or consistent at any point this season and unfortunately these habits tend to follow a team through the postseason.