Five Tipping Point States: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Virginia
These Could Be the Closest on Election Night
1. Florida: You don't have to go far back to remember just how close an election in Florida can be. In 2000 George Bush carried Florida by an astonishingly small amount of 537 votes. The state has all the makings of a tight race again this year, with both candidates having very strong core support in the state. The key will be who can reach out to the independent voter. Expect this one to take a while to call on election night.
2. Ohio: Another state that is consistently close is the Buckeye state of Ohio and 2008 should be no different. Neither of these candidates seem to have gotten the huge support in Ohio that someone like Hillary Clinton had, but both have improved their position in the last few months. The key in this state will be getting out the vote among the core supporters.
3. North Carolina: North Carolina wasn't expected to be in play this year, but Barack Obama has really caught fire in the state. High turnout among African American voters is absolutely crucial to Obama winning this state. McCain needs to keep his base solid in western North Carolina, but he also needs to do well in the suburban areas of the big cities in North Carolina.
4. Missouri: Missouri is a state that is very red almost all over except on both sides. On the far east you have Saint Louis and on the far west there is Kansas City. Both of these areas are highly populated and will go very strongly for Obama. Don't be surprised if you see the early returns out of the rural parts of Missouri coming in and McCain is far ahead, only to see that lead evaporate as chunks of the inner city vote comes in. This one could be a squeaker.
5. Virginia: Virginia is a state where Barack Obama continues to enjoy solid leads despite the fact that a democrat hasn't won the state since 1964. The republican strongholds are still there, so this may well be closer than most think. I think a tightening of the polling in the last few days is possible here, and it could come down to a get out the vote contest.
It is important to note that all five of these states voted for President Bush in 2004. Clearly Barack Obama is the one who has the electoral map on his side and John McCain is left playing defense.
Published by Aaron Smith - Featured Contributor in Sports
I am a full-time freelance writer who specializes in writing about the world of sports as well as the financial industry. I write about a little bit of everything. My passion for all of these topics comes ou... View profile
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2 Comments
Post a CommentI live in FL and it's NEVER dull here on election day!! Great article!
Great analysis as usual - here and on your Buckeye State piece!