Florida Residential Real Estate "Stabilizing"

The same, however, doesn't apply to condominiums, which the "Survey of Emerging Market Conditions: Q1 2008 Findings" reports are "overbuilt and prone to speculative and naive investors." Meanwhile, industrial, retail and office real-estate are showing signs of weakening, indicating that residential market problems have spread to those sectors.

The fifth quarterly study prepared by UF's Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, the latest report is the first to report an improvement in the state's residential investment outlook. The previous study showed a flat outlook while the previous three showed consistent declines.

The study is based on survey responses from more than 300 real-estate executives, lawyers, analysts, title insurers and other experts in the industry. The latest survey, completed in January, showed a drop in the number of experts who reported a decline in single-family housing prices. By contrast, a growing number of respondents indicated that the state's housing prices appear to be keeping even with inflation.

"We see that as a benchmark," said Wayne Archer, director of the Bergstrom Center. "When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we're probably in some kind of equilibrium. It indicates the market is stabilizing."

While the latest study, released this week, shows signs of a market turnaround, different parts of Florida are likely to see improvement at different times, Archer said. The previously "hot" markets of south and central Florida will probably rebound sooner than typically quieter, smaller-city markets. Still, though, it appears single-family home prices have generally bottomed out across the state.

"If you're thinking of buying a house, there's probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point," Archer said.. "It doesn't look like prices are going to fall anymore."

The survey divides 37 of Florida's 67 counties into 13 top markets: Miami-Dade County, Broward County, Palm Beach County, the Treasure Coast, the Southwest Coast, the East Central, Orlando, Lakeland-Winter Haven, Tampa-St. Petersburg, Sarasota-Bradenton (Manatee & Sarasota Counties)
Jacksonville - Jacksonville, North Central and Northwest Florida.

Archer cautioned that an improving market doesn't mean Florida can expect to see a return to the overheated conditions of a few years ago. However, he added, a promising indicator of the state's turnaround can be seen in the growing number of foreign investors showing an interest in rental properties.

"They apparently have no fears about the future of these markets despite what we perceive as our problems with hurricanes, taxes and other concerns," Archer said.

Any signs of a market turnaround are likely to be welcome news in Florida, which last year accounted for 10 percent of all sub-prime mortgage loans and ranked second in the U.S. in numbers of home foreclosures. In response to the state's troubled markets, Gov. Charlie Crist recently created a task force known as Home Ownership Promotes the Economy (HOPE).

The task force, which is scheduled to meet again this week, is charged with finding ways to reduce the impact of foreclosures on Florida residents and communities. The group is expected to complete it recommendations to the governor by April 18.