Foreign Policy Advice for the Obama Administration

A number of foreign policy problems confront the Obama administration, some of which have the potential into exploding into full blow crises. So far the Obama administration has handled these problems badly.

Here is some advice on how the Obama administration can get back on track.

Iranian Nuclear Weapons

So far, following the lead of the Bush administration, the Obama administration has chosen the diplomatic path, attempting to pressure Iran into stopping its nuclear weapon program and to get various countries, including those in Europe, as well as China and Russia to agree on sanctions should diplomacy fail. This approach has proven ineffective as Iran has used diplomatic dialogue as an excuse for delaying tactics and Russia and China have balked at meaningful sanctions, calculating that a nuclear Iran is more a problem for the United than it is for them.

Meanwhile the Obama administration has pursued a series of missteps that have convinced the Iranians, as well as the Russians and Chinese, that it is weak. The Obama administration has proposed cutting funding for missile defense and has ended, unilaterally, the Bush era missile defense system being built in Eastern Europe. Israel, a presumed target for Iranian nukes, has become increasingly alarmed and may take military action by itself.

The Obama administration can turn things around if it does the following things.

First, the Obama administration should restore and increase funding for missile defense research and development. President Obama should personally travel to Poland and the Czech Republic and convince the leaders there that, in view of continuing Iranian intransigence as illustrated by the recent missile tests, that the United States would like to, after all, build a much larger missile defense system in Eastern Europe. Similar agreements should be made with countries surrounding Iran, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In this way, nuclear weapons become less valuable for Iran.

Second, the Obama administration should inform the Iranians that, should it persist in refusing to give up nuclear weapons, a naval blockade will be imposed to prevent the importation of refined petroleum to Iran. Though Iran is an oil producing nation, it must outsource its refining.

Third, support for Iranian dissidents should be stepped up, including money and technical support. The ultimate goal should not only be a nuclear free Iran, but regime change.

North Korean Nuclear Weapons

The North Korean situation is similar to that in Iran, with the exception that North Korea has nuclear weapons already and effecting regime change is likely impossible in the near term. Nevertheless, increasing missile defenses around North Korea, including South Korea, Japan, and at adjoining oceans should be undertaken to degrade the utility of North Korea's nuclear arsenal. In addition the carrot of a humanitarian aid package should be offered in an attempt to moderate North Korean behavior.

Afghanistan

The Obama administration campaigned on winning the war in Afghanistan and so it behooves it to do so. Having been defeated in Iraq, Al Qaeda has shifted its focus to Afghanistan. The coalition troops now there are inadequate for the task of defeating Al Qaeda and the Taliban. General McChrystal, the US commander in Afghanistan, has asked for 40,000 more troops to execute a proper counter insurgency strategy. The request should be granted with a minimum of dithering. Also, Pakistan should be pressured to do more to suppress terrorists hiding in the safe havens of Waziristan, bordering Afghanistan

The Israeli Palestinian Conflict

Most every administration has vowed to put an end to the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the Obama administration is no exception. The problem is two-fold. The positions of the two sides are intractable and unreconcilable. Israel will not give up Jerusalem, for example, and the Palestinians will not make peace without Israel doing so. Also the Palestinians are divided into the radical Hamas faction, who controls Gaza, and the more moderate Fatah faction, which controls the West Bank and is recognized as the true Palestinian Authority. A peace agreement signed by the Palestinian Authority will not be recognized by Hamas.

The best that can be done in the near term is to keep the two sides talking, trying to tamp down on terrorist violence, while searching for ways to suppress and eventually destroy Hamas.

The Rise of China

The rise of China as a super power is a long term problem for the United States. China intends to challenge the United States militarily, economically, and commercially for the role of dominate power in the world. Since China is ruled by a tyrannical, imperialist government, this is a grave problem. Also, China would like to grab Taiwan, which it considers a "rebellious province", which the United States does not want it to do. China also carries a lot of US debt, which is a problem for both countries.

The strategy of the carrot and the stick should be applied concerning China. The carrot would consist of things like favorable trade agreements, cooperative ventures, and so on. The stick should consist of a military buildup, including sea, air, and space based forces (China has tested an anti satellite weapon) based in alliances with China's neighbors. And, as with Iran and North Korea, missile defenses should be deployed to nullify any ability China has to strike at American and allied targets, including the American homeland.