Foreign Policy Association Series: Examining Afghanistan

The Foreign Policy Association has launched a new series that will be released in several parts. The title of the series is "Examining Afghanistan," and the first part, called "Afghanistan's Internal Dynamics and Challenges," was released Thursday.

The author of the series, Marco Vicenzino, is a foreign affairs analyst who serves as a board member and strategic advisor to the Afghanistan World Foundation. He is Director of the Global Strategy Project in Washington, D.C., and John C. Whitehead Fellow of Foreign Policy.

Part I of the series begins by warning readers that Afghanistan's long-term prospects warrant more caution than optimism, and that this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In examining the current situation in Afghanistan, which involves the presence of troops from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, the author notes that a rising number of civilian casualties has served to undermine Afghan support for foreign forces and for the central government headed by President Karzai.

The first section of part one, under the sub-heading "Security and the Afghan Army," notes a surge of violence in Afghanistan last year that required additional international forces to deploy to the country. At the same time, the effectiveness of the Afghan has been improving, but the assistance of NATO will be required for a very long time.

The second section, titled "Understanding the Tribal Structure," states that a smaller international presence and an increased Afghan presence in the fight against the Taliban and Al-Qaeda remnants could yield results in tribal rural areas where outsiders are resented and where cultural misunderstandings can lead to violence. The author argues that a better understanding of Afghan tribes and clans is necessary, something he calls enhanced "network analysis."

Section three, called "The Political Landscape," says, "In principle, Afghans remain proud of having achieved a form of representative government that is still a work in progress." However, the author cautions, progress is likely to take time, occurring gradually and in small increments.

In conclusion, the author writes, an extended period of time will be required for Afghanistan's government and society to fully develop. He even goes as far as to say, "One must accept the possibility that it might not occur, or not to the extent accepted in the west."

Part I of the "Examining Afghanistan" Series is available for reading on the Foreign Policy Association web site.

Source: Foreign Policy Association Global Views Newsletter