Four Guys to Consider in Fantasy Baseball 2007

If you're in a fantasy baseball league, then chances are you've already had your draft. If you're lucky enough to have a draft upcoming, I have some advice to impart. Simply put, it's the big dogs who win you the fantasy leagues. Role players all end up with the same numbers at the end of the year anyway. It's your first few rounds that will decide who wins the league. With that in mind, here's a little advice on who to draft and who not to draft. If you've already drafted your team, don't fret. Use this advice to make some trades and improve your team.

The first guy to think about is Ryan Howard. The Phillies first baseman led the big leagues in home runs last year and had a huge year driving in runs. While it may seem like he's on his way up this year, that would be fool's thinking. Howard had a career year in 2006 and though he won't completely fall off of the map, it's unlikely he can match those numbers in 2007. Consider the fact that 41% of the balls that Howard made contact with fell in for a hit. That number is an extreme outlier for both league averages and Howard's average number for his career. Expect that number to drop back to a number like 35% and Howard's batting average is sure to drop with it.

If you want to take a sure thing, grab Alex Rodriguez. Sure, there may be some controversy surrounding the Yankee third baseman, but he's almost guaranteed to hit 40 home runs, drive in 120 runs, and carry a batting average of .320. This could be a career year for A-Rod, as he certainly has something to prove after Yankees general manager Brian Cashman put out word that the Yankees weren't going to open up the corporate wallet for the veteran after this season.

If you're looking for a guy who might be available in the early second round, Miguel Cabrera is a great choice at third base. He didn't hit that many home runs last year, but that number should go up as the 24 year old third baseman develops his game. He's now in the middle of a lineup that's improving and he seems to be the guy who the team counts on to drive in runs. If you can get him in the early second round, consider yourself lucky. Cabrera will post first round numbers this season.

One player who is something of an enigma is Alfonso Soriano. The newly acquired Chicago Cub should prosper in Wrigley Field, where home runs fly out so frequently. Still, it remains to be seen how he'll respond to being the man on a team that's in contention. Soriano will hit enough home runs and steal enough bases to make him an elite fantasy player, but I probably wouldn't take him in the top five. There's simply too big of a question mark there to warrant your best pick.