Four Trendy First-Round Upset Picks Likely to Disappoint This March Madness

Midwest Region
Tennessee (6) vs San DiegoState (11), 9:45 ET @ Providence, RI
Already, many "Bracketeers" have jumped aboard the Aztecs' upset bandwagon. The team won the Mountain West Conference Tournament, impressively finishing the season with nine wins in the final ten games. Nonetheless, the Aztecs remain 0-6 all-time in NCAA Tournament games, while the Volunteers join the field for the fifth consecutive season. San Diego State possesses four double-digit scorers, but not a single senior who averages 20+ minutes per game. San Diego State and Tennessee remain similarly challenged from the free throw line (SDSU: 61.4%, UT: 66.9%) and three-point line (SDSU: 32.3%, UT: 31.3%). Ultimately, Tennessee emerges as the vastly superior defensive team, ranking No. 8 in the country in defensive efficiency. San Diego State recorded two wins (UNLV, twice) in six games versus teams in the top 50 in defensive efficiency. Additional noteworthy advantages include the Volunteers' depth, experience, and regular season strength of schedule.

The Volunteers' chemistry appears improved from recent years, as illustrated by the team's regular season upsets of top-ranked Kansas and Kentucky. Expect Tennessee's trio of seniors to aggressively attack and wear down the Aztecs on the defensive end to distance the Vols from SDSU, down the stretch. Thursday's showdown in Providence requires a quick turnaround for the Aztecs, fresh off of three games in the conference tournament, as well as the team's first trip east of the Mississippi. SDSU's Steve Fisher certainly ranks amongst the country's top-notch coaches; however, Tennessee appears poised for a second-round showdown with Georgetown.

West Region
Butler (5) vs UTEP (12), 4:45 ET, @ San Jose, CA
The classic 5 vs 12 pairing, this match-up remains extremely difficult to handicap. The two teams enter the game amongst the nation's hottest teams, with Butler on a 19-game winning streak and UTEP winning 16 out of the last 17 games. Many "experts" have selected UTEP to not only beat Butler, but a second-round opponent, as well. However, Butler remains a worthy tournament-tested, hard-nosed defensive squad. The team compiled the nation's fourth toughest non-conference schedule, including wins versus Northewestern, UCLA, Ohio State, and Xavier. Butler excels at the foul-line, in its half-court offensive sets, and should prove superior on the perimeter to the Miners. Hayward and Howard must draw fouls, stay out of foul trouble, and remain patient to weather UTEP's front-court advantage. Butler's chemistry ranks amongst the best in the region, while the team's defense will keep the squad in position for an anticipated hot shooting streak to distance themselves from the Miners, at some point during the game. UTEP has yet to defeat a top 50 team this season, while three out of Butler's four losses occurred against top 25 (Kenpom Ratings) teams. Undoubtedly, the Bulldogs' showdown with the Miners ranks amongst the most anticipated first-round match-ups. Expect a hard-fought, closely contested game, but buyer beware! Butler may derail UTEP's Sweet Sixteen Express.

East Region
(5) Temple vs (12) Cornell, 12:30 ET @ Jacksonville, FL
Cornell has become a consensus Cinderella favorite, for a variety of reasons. The team excels from the three-point line, nearly upset No. 1 Kansas earlier this season (Temple lost to KU by 32), and Ryan Wittman remains a bona fide senior star. ESPN's Jay Bilas has even selected Cornell to defeat Kentucky and astonishingly reach the Elite 8. Ultimately, an overlooked Temple squad may derail the experts' lofty expectations for Cornell. Temple enters the tournament on a 10-game winning streak, including the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Championship. The Owls lead the country in field goal defense and ranks No. 2 in three-point field goal defense. Temple has compiled impressive wins versus Villanova, Siena, Virginia Tech, Rhode Island (three times), Xavier, and Richmond, while Cornell's only two wins versus the top 100 this season were road wins versus Alabama and St. John's. Expect Temple's defense to suffocate Wittman, as the Owls enter the showdown allowing 60 points only once (in overtime), during the recent winning streak. Temple's Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez rank amongst the region's top perimeter pairs and should prove capable of tempering the Big Red barrage.

South Region
(4) Purdue vs (13) Siena, 2:30 ET @ Spokane, WA.
Purdue enters the game as 4-point favorites, without the services of star forward, Robbie Hummel. The team shockingly scored 11 points in the first half of its last game versus Minnesota, while Siena enters the game, winning 21 out of 23 games. First, I must admit, I have not yet selected the winner of this game. Siena beat Ohio State last March and may be the hungrier team than a wounded Purdue squad. However, many fans have become prisoners of the moment, disregarding Purdue's three prior wins without Hummel, the Boilermakers' NCAA tournament experience, and the veteran presence of 15+ point scorers, Johnson and Moore. Regardless, Siena remains 1-5 versus top 100 teams, this season, with a home win versus Northeastern serving as the lone exception. Additionally, Siena struggles from the free-throw and three-point lines, rendering a closely contested match-up highly likely. Siena may inevitably emerge victorious, but dismissing the Boilermakers may leave "Bracketeers" scratching their heads on Friday if Purdue successfully unites, behind their signature suffocating defense.

References: All statistics, rankings, and results as reflected on Kenpom.com.