GOP 2012 Contender Field: Who's In? Who's Out? This Early, Who Cares?

COMMENTARY | The field of Republican contenders for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination has already went through several metamorphoses, with poll after poll reflecting those making noises and those already in the race, not to mention those that were in the race and withdrew from consideration. But there are 17 months to go before Election Day 2012, eight months before the Iowa Caucus, and three months before the traditional campaign jump-off in September (after Labor Day). So what's the rush?

CNN political contributor Roland Martin suggests that Americans enjoy the summer and allow the Republicans time to get their collective field together. He notes that Labor Day will probably signal the beginning of real, push-for-votes campaigning on the part of those Republican candidates that have finally committed to an actual run for the presidency. The next few months will see more exploration and testing of waters by potential candidates, not to mention some who have already declared possibly accepting they simply don't have the support and opting out. Regardless, September guarantees five months to curry votes on the campaign trail before primary season begins. The serious contenders will have established themselves by the summer-ending holiday.

Martin also makes the salient point that social media and the immediacy of the news cycle has made for a different sort of campaign strategy, one where candidates might not want to declare too early so as not to give their opponents too much time in which to attack them. Also there are financial considerations. Declaring early might get a candidate funds coming in but a protracted campaign can become costly. Besides, the Internet has proven a quick way to raise campaign dollars, so announcing early only seems to be beneficial in the area of promoting name recognition.

Besides, with the Sarah Palin bus tour and will she-won't she media saturation, it is doubtful that the lesser known candidates will be around much longer. As Martin's fellow CNN contributor David Frum points out, even the frontrunner in many of the polls, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, can't seem to get a story in edgewise as Palin fever seems to have overtaken the media. Potential candidates with low name recognition are finding little press traction as Palin, who might not even run herself, garners more and more media space.

And then there are the polls and surveys, each one seeming to reflect some new leader for awhile, prompting pundits and political analysts to pronounce the field of potential Republican candidates as unsatisfactory to GOP voters. Even former mayor Rudy Giuliani, who has been mentioned by Rep. Peter King (R-NY) as a possible contender, topped a recent CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll. Before that, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee was giving Romney competition for the top spot. But that was before business tycoon Donald Trump suddenly surged into the lead in the crowded Republican polls, garnering support on the back of his Obama birth certificate allegations. Both Huckabee and Trump withdrew from contention in mid-May.

Is there unrest among Republican voters? Possibly. Is there dissatisfaction with the potential candidates within their Party? Possibly. Will there be a dark horse or an unknown that suddenly catches the eye of GOP voters? Possibly. But does this all mean that the race has to be scrutinized and parsed with each passing statement, maneuver, and poll? Not really, although that won't stop the media from doing it anyway.

Even Sarah Palin recently made the statement that it will be a "changed-up field" in the coming weeks and months. Does that mean she might jump into the race herself? Not necessarily, but she's thrown out hints that she might declare late.

Like in September.

So it might not be such a bad thing for a few of us to look away in the meantime and allow the Republican field of hopefuls to adjust themselves.