GWU/Battleground Poll: John McCain Down by One
Just a few days ago, the same poll had Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by thirteen points. How to account for the sudden and massive tightening of the polls?
First, the initial shock of the current economic crisis seems to have faded a little and people have had a little time to digest it. It is a general rule that people tend to blame the party in power, which is presumed to in this case be the Republicans since George W. Bush is in the White House, for economic problems. Hence, Barack Obama has ridden a wave of popularity for the past few weeks.
But people also are coming to realize the heavy involvement of Democrats, such as Barack Obama, in causing the economic crisis. They are also noting that economic times have been pretty good under President Bush up until the capture of the Congress by the Democrats.
Two other incidents have occurred to shake public confidence in the ability of Barack Obama to be President. The first had to do with a man now famously known as Joe the Plumber. The second came out of the mouth of Barack Obama's own running mate, Joe Biden.
When Barack Obama accosted Joe Wurzelbacher in his front yard in Toledo, Ohio, Joe had the temerity to ask the candidate a question. What's up with you wanting to raise my taxes? Barack Obama had a telling response. Barack Obama wants to raise taxes in order to "spread the wealth." In other words, take money from some people to give to others. In other words, socialism.
The second incident took place more recently when Senator Joe Biden announced to a group of campaign doners that Barack Obama would be "tested" within six months of becoming President by the enemies of the United States. Biden further suggested that Obama's response would not be entirely popular.
Both incidents played into the anxiety people feel about Democrats. They tend to be foreign policy weaklings and economic bullies. They'll appease the enemies of the United States while stripping people of their income in order to give it to people they prefer to have it.
Most Americans find both approaches more than a little off putting. Hence the collapse of Barack Obama in the GWU/Battleground Poll and his slower decline in most other polls. That means that the confident prediction of the inevitability of President Obama may have been a bit premature.
Source: Battleground Poll, Realclearpolitics
Published by Mark Whittington
Mark R. Whittington is a writer residing in Houston, Texas. He is the author of The Last Moonwalker, Children of Apollo, Dark Sanction, and Nocturne. He has written numerous articles, some for the Washington... View profile
-
Traditions of the United States Presidential Inauguration
On January 20th of this year, Barack Obama will be sworn in as the 44th POTUS, prompting the country to engage in the familiarity of the old ceremonial traditions to inaugurate...
-
The Axis of the Abhorred: North Korea, Iran and the United States
Why the United States is viewed poorly to the world, and what we can do to stop it.
- Top 10 Stupid Things Bush Has Said While President of the United States To celebrate Bush finally being out of the White House, here are the types of stupid things we won't hear any more. Bye bye Bush!
-
Barack Obama Becomes President of the United States
By the time most people read this, Barack Obama will be President Barack Obama. Barack Obama will have spoken the thirty five words of the swearing in oath that will seal the ju...
- A History of England's Attitude Towards the United States from World War I to Worl... This paper details the global changes caused by World War I and II. It looks specifically at England and the United States, and it uses exclusively the editorials found in the English publication "The Spectator."
- Barack Obama Outraises John McCain in June
- Why Enemies of the United States Are Always Portrayed as Insane
- Three Main Issues for the Next President of the United States
- Why The National Security Strategy of the United States of America Will Not Preven...
- The 10 Worst Vice Presidents of the United States
- The Current Position of the United States
- The Role of the United States in the Global Community After the Cold War
|
|
- 10 things you need to know today: February 11, 2012 (The Week)
- Grammy Awards preview: Top 5 reasons to watch (The Week)
- No Fun Allowed: L.A. Beaches Ban Footballs, Frisbees, and Sand Digging (ContributorNetwork)
- Good day, bad day: February 10, 2012 (The Week)
- Obama's birth control compromise: 'Still unacceptable'? (The Week)
8 Comments
Post a CommentThe GWU/battleground Poll has been one of the thy most accurate in elections,in the range of 1%...it's bi-partisan..I like to go by polls that have showed past great accuracy.
The fact that the Battleground Poll consistently seems to favor McCain far more than the other polls has already been looked into. It seems that the Battleground poll interviews comparatively huge numbers of elderly people without properly weighting their results to account for the numbers of the overall population, like most polls do. it's not surprising that they interview a disproportionate number of elderly, since they're easier to reach at home, and younger people have cell phones rather than land lines. But most polls adjust for these problems in their final calculations, and Battleground doesn't. So only rely on the Battleground polls if you think that over 30% of voters will be over 65, and only 29% will be 18-44, despite the fact that voters in 2004 were 19% over 65, and 43% were 18-44. AND this doesn't account for the remarkable uptick in youth voting registration in 2008.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/whats-wrong-with-battleground-poll.html
Battleground is a bi-partisan poll and is self policing. Battleground has by far been the most accurate poll since 1992 (last four elections), less than 1% every time. And I am a Democrat we must all face realities. Check it out...
http://www.tarrance.com/files/TTG-Vote-Projections-and-Results.pdf
I agree with the poster below me. I tend to trust Pew Research as well, and any poll that has McCain down by only one point is, as the poster below has said, simply wishful thinking.
Or it could be a huge stretch from a very questionable poll. I tend to trust Pew Research, as statistical research is all they do, and their poll out today has Obama ahead by 13 points.
One poll showing McCain down by one is simply wishful thinking.
Very well written as always Mark.
I'm with you Sadie. I get more news from Mark than the news channels!
I think I will just stop watching Fox and read your news. I like yours better!