Halfway Through the 08-09 NHL Season

Playoff Picture Should Shake Out Largely as Predicted

Eric Alexy
Somewhere Alexander Daigle is smiling.

As far as the biggest gaffes in Senators history go--and this was a franchise that failed to win 20 games for four straight seasons--Daigle ranks pretty high on the list. This is the guy, who, after being taken No. 1 in the '93 draft--referring to the previous year's No. 2 pick, Alexei Yashin--said: "I'm glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number two." Daigle, who's work ethic proved to be about as keen as Sean Avery's fashion sense, never scored more than 51 points in a season, and after brief and largely unsuccessful stints with five other teams, he was out of the league for good.

Well, 42 games into the season, the Sens may have outdone themselves.

It's one thing that a team with a top line of Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson doesn't win a Cup. That's only mildly unacceptable (and, for what it's worth, they did come close), and the trio have, in large part, kept up their end of the bargain (the three will make nearly $15 million this year), all scoring 80 or more points every season since the lockout. Blame it on shoddy goaltending, lack of a supporting cast, an out-of-touch coach, but any team with this much talent, even if it is all stacked on one line, should at least win half of the time.

The Sens are so pathetic this year (winning just four road games), that, in all likelihood, if Rick DiPietro played more than once a month, the Sens would have the worst record in the entire league. (At present, they have just four more points than the dead-last-in-the-league Isles.) No one was necessarily picking them to win the conference, or even the division. But, out of the playoff picture entirely?

Another equally disappointing though slightly less baffling fiasco has been the Pittsburgh Penguins fall from grace. Cup hangover? Hardly. Any club that loses one of the league's top offensive talents and top-notch veteran keeper is bound to fall off a little. Six Fedotenkos and Satans are not Hossa's equal, and, in Detroit, Conklin has proven to be the ace his 9-0 start with the Pens last year hinted he may be.

It became apparent early on--during the preseason in fact--that with the team's top two defensemen (Gonchar and Whitney) out for considerable time, the offense would have to pick up the slack. And, for the most part, they have: Malkin and Crosby currently rank first and second in overall scoring, but that hasn't been nearly enough. The Pens' powerplay, ranked fourth last season, is 20th best in the league this season, which, coupled with a goals against average (the team has one shutout all year) and penalty killing that are equally as dismal, has spelled disaster for the Pens, who wouldn't even make the playoffs if they started today.

The only other real shakeup in the East has been fantastic end-to-end play of the Boston Bruins, who were presumed to contend for a seventh or eighth seed, not the best record in the league. Given how stellar the duo of Thomas and Fernandez has been, even if one falls off slightly, they'll remain in decent shape. To boot, unless Milan Lucic, David Krejci and Phil Kessel--who have all ascended to top-flight scorers at a remarkable rate--all prove to be first-half flukes, then the B's should very well inhabit the first spot in the conference come playoff time.

The ongoing experiment in Tampa has largely been a failure, but, no one figured them better than an eighth seed anyhow, so that hardly factors into the playoff picture.

Expect Montreal, who along with Pittsburgh were a popular preseason pick to win the conference, to still grab a fourth seed come playoff time. They seem to be the loose cannon of the crop, and could easily get knocked off in a potential first-round showdown with any of the Atlantic (especially a Brodeur-led Devils) teams. Washington will likely only go as far as their home-field advantage and isn't durable enough to take down Boston over a seven-game series.

In the West, the only division that looked to be truly up for grabs at the season's start was the Northwest, which has had three different winners the past three seasons. As long as the Flames continue to get buku minutes from Iginla, Phaneuf and Kiprusoff they're likely to edge out a Sundin-assisted Vancouver squad for the division.

Minnesota's playoff hopes rested squarely on the shoulders (or was it his hip?) of Marian Gaborik, and they'll disappoint, even with solid play from Backstrom, with an eighth seed at best, eventually edging out inexperienced but promising squads from Columbus, Phoenix and L.A. Edmonton is likely to be a few points out of the equation again this year, and the Avs are just too inconsistent and injury-laden a team to be a concern, even if they do make it to the post-season.

So, as predicated back when it was still warm outside, the West comes down to Detriot and San Jose. The Hawks, will likely prove to be a veteran superstar and a year short of upsetting either team.

The experienced Ducks, however, could prove a more realistic threat. Dallas, too, could come alive, with veteran leadership and some Turco magic, and, should they make the playoffs, expect them to play the spoiler.

If the cup was played today, the Gonchar-less Penguins wouldn't even be in the equation, and the Canadiens lack the offensive consistency to take down Washington, leaving the Bruins as far-and-away the most likely receipt of the consolation prize known as the Prince of Wales Trophy. Detroit doesn't know much other than winning, be it all regular season long as they've done the past two seasons, or in May, and with the addition of Hossa, there's simply no argument that they aren't still far and away the no-brainer pick to win the Cup.

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