Handicapping the American League Cy Young Award Chase for 2007

Good luck to anyone trying to handicap the American League Cy Young race at this point in the season, as even with about six weeks to go it is as wide open an affair as one could imagine. There are several contenders for the AL Cy Young Award, the honor bestowed on the pitcher deemed to have had the finest season for a particular year, named after the hurler whose record 511 victories will never be approached. At first glance at the field there are as many as a dozen contenders for the AL Cy Young Award, and even though it is relatively easy to pare a few pretenders from that group, one is still left with a hard choice between several players.

The pretenders in this group are Paul Byrd of the Indians, Justin Verlander of the Tigers, Tim Wakefield of the Red Sox, and Chien-Ming Wang of the Yankees. Although all four are among the AL leaders in triumphs on the hill, they all possess earned run averages around or over four runs per game. Wakefield, the ageless knuckleballer, has managed a decision in every contest he has been in this season, and his 15 wins are tied for tops in the circuit, but his ERA is an inflated 4.35, indicating he has received more than adequate run support.

Even with the elimination of this quartet, you still are left with a plethora of worthy candidates. Starting at the top in terms of wins, there is Josh Beckett of the Boston Red Sox. Beckett has a 15-5 mark with 148 strikeouts, good for seventh in the American League. Beckett has managed to wriggle off the hook in a handful of games that he left trailing though, and despite a fine ERA of 3.15, there are some even lower this year. One of those belongs to Johan Santana, who is making a late push towards a third Cy Young Award. Johan just struck out 17 Orioles in a superb performance, a number that will attract voters' attention when it comes time to decide this race. Santana has a 2.88 ERA to go with over 35 less hits than innings pitched, an important stat for pitchers. However, he is just 13-9 and is going to have little room for any losses in the coming weeks if he is to garner this award once more.

The Angels' John Lackey may be watching his Cy Young chances slip away, as he has been just 4-3 since the All-Star Game and was hit hard by the Red Sox in a recent start, allowing Boston to hit for the cycle in the first four batters. Lackey's ERA has risen now to 3.39, and even though he is 15-8, he has given up more hits than innings pitched. Fausto Carmona of the Indians, a player that has made a complete turnaround from a disastrous 2006 campaign, has pitched in hard luck in August, going 1-3 even though he has given up just 9 runs. His 14-8 standard and 3.11 ERA have him in contention for a Cy Young, but he needs to win probably every start from here on out except perhaps one to have a legitimate chance.

Kelvim Escobar of the Angels is having a career year, finally living up to his potential. Escobar is now 31 years old, and his stuff has carried him to a 14-6 record with a great ERA of 2.85, with 22 less hits allowed than innings on the mound. If he continues to post such fine numerals, Escobar has a solid shot at his first Cy Young Award. Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays won the AL Cy Young in 2003 and is sneaking up on this group with his 14-5 standard and five complete games, by far the most of any of these pitchers mentioned here. However, he is hurt by a high ERA compared to the rest of these guys, as his stands at 3.89 as of this writing. Cleveland's C.C. Sabathia also suffers from a higher ERA than many of these Cy Young wannabes, at 3.43, and the Indians' ace has given up 195 hits in 189 innings; leading the league in both of those categories, one good and one not so good.

Daisuke Matzusaka of Boston has been almost as great as the hype that preceded his Beantown arrival, and the Red Sox have given him little run support in his 10 losses. He is among the AL's top pitchers in strikeouts with 172, but even though his ERA is on the way down, it is still at 3.72. His 13 victories could easily be 17 with any luck at all, which would have made it hard for Daisuke to be ignored when the AL Cy Young is handed out. This brings us to the two players that I believe the 2007 AL Cy Young Award will come down to.

One is Oakland's Dan Haren, laboring for a punchless team and still having a great year at 14-4 with a 2.66 ERA and 24 less hits than innings thrown. Haren was absolutely fabulous for the first two months of the season, but has been just average lately, pitching to an earned run average over four runs a game the last eight weeks. He will need to rebound if he is to beat out the Orioles' Erik Bedard, who is 13-4 with a 2.97 ERA. Bedard's 218 strikeouts lead all of baseball, and he has gotten no-decisions in two games against Boston and New York this month that he should have won if not for the ineptitude of the Baltimore position players and bullpen. Bedard has not lost since June 10th, a span in which he is 9-0, and he has a phenomenal ratio of hits to innings pitched at 135 to 176. I feel that playing for a team that just lost a contest by a 30-3 score and putting up such great numbers will persuade the AL Cy Young voters to give the award to Bedard over Haren, Beckett, and Santana in what should be a fascinating battle to the season's final out.