Handicapping the National League Batting Title Chase

The National League batting race is so close this year that it is going to come down, more than likely, to someone's last at-bat. The difference at this moment between first and seventh place is a paltry .007 percentage points, as there are two pairs of teammates, an emerging superstar, a veteran having a career year, and the X-factor of a player in the mix currently on the disabled list that may not get enough at-bats to qualify. The National League batting title race is indeed going to be an exciting one, a chase that is sure to keep fans' interest right down to the wire.

Currently leading this tight pack is Hanley Ramirez, a former Red Sox super-prospect who has blossomed after being traded to the Marlins in the Josh Beckett deal last year. Ramirez is batting .341, and his 147 base hits lead the National League. The Marlins are on the fringe of the wild card chase in the senior circuit, nine games out, and do not figure to make a major push to get back into it anytime soon. Ramirez is young, twenty-three years old, and perhaps the pressure of trying to win a National League batting title will cause him to wither in the Miami heat down the stretch.

While Ramirez doesn't have much of a track record to go by, The Nationals' Dimitri Young does. He is a career .292 batter who is now hitting .340, but playing with Washington in relative obscurity may actually help him as he chases the National League batting title. Young, who has been publicly battling alcoholism and diabetes, was released by the Tigers last year and picked up by the Nats, becoming one of the few bright spots during a dismal season. If Young can continue his hot hitting, he not only has a chance to win the batting title, he would be a lock for the Comeback Player of the Year Award after his injuries, drinking, and accompanying legal troubles kept him out of all but 48 games last year.

Although Miguel Cabrera seems to have been around for a decade, he actually has only played for five seasons and is just twenty-four years old. His youth has not stopped him from coming up big when it counts, and right now, third in the National League batting chase, Cabrera cannot afford to falter. He hit a robust .339 last year in 576 at-bats, and is just a couple hits short of the top spot now at .338. Miguel will have to catch his own teammate if he is to be the NL batting champ, as he trails Ramirez, who he ironically protects in the order with his 27 homers. Cabrera has been close before, having finished third twice and second once in his quest for a batting title.

The Rockies' Matt Holliday has gotten better each year since his 2004 debut, hitting for a higher average each season. He is now at .336 as of this writing, and the Rockies are in the thick of the wild card hunt, with him a huge reason why. Holliday is the high runs batted in man of the seven NL batting title contenders, with his 88 six more than the 82 that Cabrera has posted. Holliday figures to keep up his pace, but some help in the batting order behind him wouldn't hurt, so that he cannot be pitched around.

Edgar Renteria is in much the same boat as Young, a veteran having a year that defies his lifelong stats, as he is hitting .336 right now compared to a career .291 standard at the plate. Renteria, who is in his second season with the Atlanta Braves, has hit higher than .309 just once, a .330 effort for the Cardinals in 2003. He has never reached two-hundred base hits in a single season, a number he will likely have to eclipse if he is to win the NL batting title. Along with Ramirez, who has 32 stolen bases to Edgar's 11, Renteria has the most speed of any of these seven men, which could add a few infield hits to the all important final number.

Chase Utley suffered a broken hand a couple of weeks back, putting a big monkey wrench in the Phillies' second baseman's batting title plans. Utley was at .336 when he went down, but is expected to return before the season ends. In order to qualify for the NL batting title, Utley needs to have 3.1 plate appearances per the number of games his team plays, so it might be tight. If the leaders really start to slow down and Utley hovers where he is but doesn't get the required number of plate appearances, a little known rule could help him. If a player is leading the league but hasn't been to the plate enough times, the remaining at-bats he would need to qualify are factored in as hitless appearances; if the average then still is tops, the player wins the title.

The last of the seven is certainly not the least, as Chipper Jones bat is a vital cog in the Braves playoff plans. A career .306 batsmen, Jones has the pedigree to get the job done here, as he has four times hit over .319 in a campaign. Jones has the least at-bats of this field, due to playing in only 88 tilts because of injury woes, so there's the distinct possibility that he may see his average decline as the summer wears on. Right now his .334 mark has him in the hunt for his first batting crown, which would certainly help his burgeoning Hall of Fame resume.

So how is this all going to play out? Whoever wins it will have thier first batting title, that's a fact. Ramirez will fade because of a combination of his inexperience in such a situation and the Florida heat. Cabrera will stay in it but come up just short once more. Utley will make it back but not be as effective as prior to his injury and drop off a bit, while Renteria will come back to earth a bit and hit around .320, not high enough to garner the NL batting title. That leaves a battle between Holliday, Young, and Jones, the latter pair being switch hitters, a big plus. Look for Young to win it all since he has lots to prove and much less pressure on him than the other two, as they will be in the midst of a playoff race.