Handicapping the NL Central Race

This is the first of a six part series covering each of the six Major League Baseball divisions. We are now roughly one hundred games into the 2007 Major League Baseball season. Right now, we are focusing on the National League Central. By most accounts, the NL Central is the weakest division in baseball today. I am not here to affirm or deny this. That is for you, the readers to decide.

The current standings (as of July 19,2007) look like this:

Milwaukee Brewers 53-41
Chicago Cubs 49-44 3 1/2 GB
St. Louis Cardinals 43-48 8 1/2 GB
Pittsburgh Pirates 40-54 13 GB
Cincinnati Reds 40-55 13 1/2 GB
Houston Astros 40-55 13 1/2 GB

This division is home to the past three National League champions (St. Louis in 2004 and 2006 and Houston in 2005). This season has been a difficult one for the division, however. Here is a team by team look.

Milwaukee - Far and away the best team in the Central all season. The offense is plain scary. Prince Fielder is a man-child who makes any ballpark look tiny. J.J. Hardy started this season on fire but has cooled off lately. Geoff Jenkins, while having a slow season, is still one of the more frightening hitters in the batters box for opposing pitchers however, he still has a major problem with striking out. On the pitching side, the ace of the staff, Ben Sheets has just gone down with a finger injury. The rest of the starters are serviceable at best. Francisco Cordero is one of the better closers in the National League. The problem is getting the game to him with the lead. Can they continue to lead the division and make their first playoff appearance since 1982? In this division, it is a possibility....my odds of them winning the division are 5 to 1.

Chicago - Hottest team in the division. The schedule is very favorable (10 games left against Milwaukee, Los Angeles and New York...the current division leaders....all at home!). Carlos Zambrano is pitching like a man possessed right now (has an outside chance at a Cy Young Award). They traded for one of the better pitching staff handling catchers in Jason Kendall.....got rid of Michael Barrett who seemed to want to fight the universe. They hit the ball fairly well. Derrek Lee is one of the top first basemen in the league, both offensively and defensively. Aramis Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano are both hitting over .300 with 15 home runs minimum. However, this is still the Cubs. Do they have the inner fortitude to pull it all together and win when it counts? That is the biggest question in my mind about them. I am giving them a slight edge in the division over Milwaukee due to recent play. Odds - 9 to 2

St. Louis - The enigma of the division. The defending World Champions are still good enough to make up the deficit. Health has been a major factor this season for the Cardinals. If they can ever get healthy at the same time, they can make a serious push (just like what happened in the playoffs last season). That has yet to happen. Pujols is starting to hit like he did last season. He is not enough to make a difference as great a player as he is. Former Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter had a setback in two rehab starts in Class A Palm beach and will undergo elbow ligament surgery and is lost for the season. Mark Mulder (who nobody in St. Louis has seen his true form yet) has thrown on the side recently and preliminary reports are positive. There is no timetable yet for his return that I am aware of. If the Cardinals can get healthy quick, they are still my favorite to win the division. As it stands right now, they are approximately 9 to 1 odds.

Pittsburgh - A very young team that while still in the lower half of the division has shown some promise. The Bucs have been struggling mightily since the All Star Break, having lost all six of their games. A franchise with some talented pieces that just have not gotten it done is on the outside looking in. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh fans, I cannot see them reversing the trend and look for them to continue their freefall towards the bottom. This looks like a 15th consecutive season with a losing record. I can't see them making a serious run at the playoffs (no appearances since 1992, when Jim Leyland, Barry Bonds and company won their third consecutive division title). Odds 50 to 1.

Cincinnati - This has been a very disappointing season in the Queen City. The only excitement has been watching Ken Griffey Jr. approach home run number 600 for his career. A franchise with an insanely rich history (much like Pittsburgh) has struggled for most of the recent years and seemingly will continue this trend playing in a small market with larger market clubs such as St. Louis and Chicago. The Reds are not going anywhere so to all of you in Cincy....enjoy the Griffey show while you can. Odds 30 to 1

Houston - Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The 2005 NL Champions have seemingly gone in the tank since being swept by the White Sox in the World Series. Brad Lidge lost his closing job earlier this season and was recently reinstated as the club's closer. This season's lone highlight was Craig Biggio's pursuit (and reaching) of the 3,000 hit plateau. This team has too many weapons for me to see finishing in last place. They are not going to get higher than fourth place though. They gave up too much ground early this season to make it up now. Odds 25 to 1

Next up will be the National League West.