Has Facebook Peaked?

The saying goes that nothing lasts forever. This saying seems to be especially true for anything related to technology. What's so interesting about how it all works is that older products don't become obsolete because they cease to function, but because someone creates a better way to function. In other cases, the product becomes dull, predictable, and lacking and different products pounce on the fumble. It's the nature of the marketplace.

I'm only 24, so there are plenty of technologies that I wasn't around to witness. In my life, some of the major rises and failings of products and companies have been defined via the digital age. I've seen the rise and fall of companies like Napster, the rise of the DVD over the VHS (Blue-Ray over DVD is happening as I type), the phenomena that was reality TV (though it continues in increasingly asinine ways even today), and of course the rise of social networking.

The last on that list is potentially the biggest one. Facebook, Myspace, Twitter, and countless others have completely morphed the way we experience the internet and how we interact with those around us. As big as social networking has become, it has proven that it is not immune to the disease of collapse. Myspace, while maintaining its existence, is generally a non-factor these days. Twitter and Facebook continue to flourish. However, Facebook has always seemed to be the different beast of pack. It was the revolutionary one. It was the older brother praised for doing everything, leaving the Twitters and Myspaces looking up at their richer, sleeker sibling.

The question everyone is asking is how long will Facebook continue to thrive? Recently, the company announced that it will be "going public." In other words, the ownership of the company will no longer be in the hands of a few select investors. While this is a semi-natural step for any larger-than-life company, you wonder what it's going to mean for Facebook.

In line with what I said above, if Facebook begins to hurt, it isn't because what they're providing ceases to function, it might be that someone comes up with a better idea, or they begin to become dull and unwanted. Honestly, I foresee the latter happening first. Facebook has continually shown its ability to adapt to different markets. For the latter, I can only use myself as an example.

Like countless others, I have and use Facebook regularly. However, the pull to "disconnect" eats at me everyday. After all, do I really care what someone who I haven't seen in years is doing? Do they really care what I'm doing? Perhaps I'm just a pessimistic jerk, but I believe the answer is no. To this point, the reason I maintain Facebook is because I'm a musician and it connects me with my network of musicians. It's a singular place where I can reach all those I've met (other bands, venue owners, event organizers, etc.) and where they can reach me.

That want to "disconnect" doesn't go away, though. It eats at you. How much more could I get done if I wasn't on Facebook for an hour or two a day? How many new people could I go out and develop real relationships with in that time? Social networking provides an illusion of inclusiveness and connectivity. It feels good. It makes you feel good. Eventually, it won't.

That is when social networking will become the lumbering dinosaur. Like anything else, it won't last forever.

Sources
Facebook to Offer "Initial Public Offering"