Heavy Early Voting Expected in Obama, McCain Contest

The Associated Press reported September 21 that as many as one third of all voters could cast their ballots prior to Election Day on November 4. Given the closeness of the presidential race at this point in time, significant numbers voters casting ballots early could skew exit poll results on election night.

According to the AP story, expanded early voting and eased restrictions for those casting absentee ballots mean that a portion of the electorate in states such as Kentucky, South Carolina and Virginia will have already voted more than a month and a half before the election actually takes place.

More than 30 states, the report says, allow early balloting in one form or another. According to the AP, the percentage of ballots cast early is steadily increasing. In 2000, 16 percent of election ballots were cast early. That number rose to 22 percent in 2004, and as already mentioned, is expected to be about 33 percent in 2008.

Early balloting preempts many traditional election activities, like get out the vote campaigns and presidential debates, the report says, as well as potential surprises that sometimes arise late in the candidates' campaigns. It also means that sudden changes in the economy or unexpected events overseas will have less of an impact on a significant portion of the voting public.

Of course, there are always concerns about ballot abuse, or fraud, when mail-in ballots are used. Different states have different rules for absentee or mail-in voting, and voter identification requirements vary depending on where a particular voter casts his or her ballot. No ballots cast early or absentee are counted prior to election day.

A tradition for reporters, political analysts, and news organizations on election day is the examination of exit polls as media outlets attempt to be the first to call a particular state for a candidate, or try to be the first organization to declare the name of the next White House occupant. Talking heads and pundits pour endlessly over statistical data gathered by questioning voters leaving the polling place. That data is then used to declare a winner, sometimes with only a small percentage of actual ballots counted.

That data, however, could be wildly skewed if significant numbers of voters cast their ballots early. The voting preferences of those voters and the associated statistical data would be excluded from election day data collection, and not considered in the analysis of exit poll data.