Heavyweight Championship Preview: Valuev vs. Haye

Exciting and boisterous David Haye is finally going to get his shot at a world heavyweight championship when he meets "The Russian Giant" Nikolai Valuev in Nuremberg, Germany on November 7th. The fight promises to bring the first breath of excitement in years into what has become a dull, Klitschko-bound division.

David Haye (22-1 with 21 KOs)
British
6'3", 78" reach, 215 lbs. and 29 years old
Former Undisputed World Cruiserweight Champion

David Haye is a fast, explosive puncher who stands as only the second man (after Evander Holyfield) to unify the cruiserweight crown. He is exciting to watch in the ring, with every one of his victories coming inside the distance. Outside the ring, he knows how to attract attention and his trash-talking seems to get under everybody's skin. However, as a heavyweight he has had only one outing: a knockout of journeyman Monte Barrett in November 2008. Whether Haye has either the pop to knockout big heavyweights or the chin to absorb their artillery remains to be seen. He would have been much better off fighting one of the dethroned Russian heavyweights, like Ruslan Chagaev or Sultan Ibragimov before tangling with the man who literally the biggest guy in the division.

Nikolai Valuev (50-1 with 34 KOs)
Russian
7', 85" reach, 315 lbs. and 36 years old
Two-time WBA Heavyweight Champion

Valuev's sole asset, much like Primo Carnera and Jess Willard before him, is his enormous size. He has little real boxing skill and is a stiff and immobile target. His style is built around a long reach, a slow-but-thudding 1-2, and using his enormous size to wear opponents out. He is a paper tiger, and has failed to dominate any of the contenders he has fought. He struggled twice with John Ruiz, nearly lost to an old fringe contender in Larry Donald, and only kept his title against a used-up Evander Holyfield because of dirty judging. Ruslan Chagaev defeated him, which says a lot given the thorough drubbing Wladimir Klitschko gave to Chagaev earlier in 2009. Valuev only has a title due to dirty dealings in smoke-filled backrooms off somewhere in Germany.

Prediction
Valuev is such an easy target that even Evander Holyfield, who has had trouble pulling the trigger for at least the last 8 or 9 years and who has always had trouble with taller opponents, found Valuev easy to score on. A younger, faster heavyweight with a modicum of skill should be able to expose him.

Yet there are many unknowns. As previously mentioned, this is a big jump for David "Hayemaker" Haye. First, while Valuev is not much of a puncher he is strong and big, and we have no idea how Haye's stamina will hold up when he has to punch, be punched, and grapple with a target that outweighs him by a full 100 lbs. Second, an old rule in boxing is that you will have a hard time reaching the head of an opponent more than 4 inches taller than you are. To score with power to the head, Haye will need to start by working the body. Valuev's body is impossible to miss, but it still isn't Haye's forte.

The route Haye should follow is easy to see: move in and out; punch in short, sharp combinations; and work the angles. If he can make Valuev constantly turn and follow, it will be the big Russian and not Haye who runs out of steam in the final rounds. This fight could be a repeat of Max Baer vs. Primo Carnera, or it could be something longer and more grueling. Either way, look to Haye to come out on top.

Haye Wins by TKO 11

Source: boxrec.com; live fight footage; The Ring; hbo.com/boxing/fighters/valuev_nikolai/bio.html;