High Drama May Be Behind Blair's Departure from Office

Tony Blair stood down as Prime Minister on the June 27. Was it payment for a long disregarded political deal as BBC.com political correspondent and analyst Nick Assinder asserts?

In 1994, England had seen 15 years of Tory government and Tony Blair's and Gordon Brown's own Labour Party wanted to be back in control. The question was: Who could gain the most votes and pull in the middle England swing voters?

Well, the question was answered, according to Assinder, at a dinner between Blair and Brown at the Granita restaurant in Islington, England. Here, Brown agreed that Blair had the best chance of succeeding with a Labour win and that he himself would step aside and give Blair a clear field. Assinder says that neither Brown nor Blair have ever made explicit statements in regards to an understanding between them or to the terms that were struck in the deal. He further notes that the authenticity of this so called leadership deal is disputed.

Since disunity subsequently developed in the ranks of the Labour Party, it is speculated that Brown became convinced that Tony Blair had broken the agreement. It is conjectured that the deal specified that Blair would occupy the premiership for a specified period of time after which he would step down and Brown would step in as Prime Minister. The trade-off was apparently that Brown would have complete control over domestic policy as chancellor in the treasury while Blair was Prime Minister.

It seems that Brown's belief was that Blair had reneged and had decided to remain as Prime Minister beyond the time limit agreed to. Aside from the political deal, Blair of course was free to do so, providing he could be elected. He in fact was elected three times.

After a heart problem led to a corrective surgery for Blair, there was a natural uproar to know what his intentions were. He made a statement that seems to have brought the shadow of the Granita deal to the foreground to hang heavily over him.

Blair stated that he intended to be a contender in the 2005 general election and that, after serving that full term, he would step down and give the next general election field to his Labour successor.

This led his in-party opponents, who were Brown's backers, to seek to force a declaration of a leaving date from him: His announcement of an impending end to his career as Prime Minister cast him in a perceived lame duck role and Brown backers wanted Brown to step in mid-term.

Backbenchers (members of parliament who are not leaders) began clamoring for a strong Prime Minister and sentiments rose up inclining them to want to force Blair out of office. Most believed that the clamor originated in the Brown camp; Brown may or may not have known about and encouraged the inclinations.

The storm grew as junior ministers and MPs sent a letter to Blair demanding his resignation and some frontbenchers (party leaders) quit the government. Finally Blair and Brown had another meeting.

Brown denied being involved in the minor rebellion that was underway but appears to have demanded Blair announce when he would stand down as Prime Minister. In September 2006 Blair made that announcement without any joy saying that he would have preferred to go about leaving office his own way.

No one was found who could or would oppose Brown in the bid to elect the next Prime Minister and so Brown was given the job. It is a job he had seemingly traded away to Blair in 1994 for the good of the Labour Party and which was, according to the disputed Granita deal, in his mind long overdue in returning to him.

Nick Assinder, "Why is Tony Blair stepping down?" BBC News. URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6238194.stm