Hillary Clinton, John McCain Will Win Super Tuesday Primaries by Close Margins

Super Tuesday is the biggest primary of them all. One week from today, we will in all likelihood, have a Democratic and Republican presidential nominee. Although not all primaries will have been decided by then, a majority of primaries will be finished and all the large delegate states will have already cast their delegates for a candidate. Here's analysis and predictions of what will happen on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008.

The biggest delegate states on Super Tuesday for the Democrats are:

California: 441 delegates
New York: 280 delegates
Illinois: 185 delegates
New Jersey: 127 delegates
Massachusetts: 121 delegates
Georgia: 104 delegates

All the rest of the 23 primary states have fewer than 100 delegates who can cast their vote for a candidate.

On the Democratic side, John Edwards' support will continue to dwindle as this will really become a two person race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

In New York, Hillary Clinton currently leads by more than 10 percentage points and since she is the senator from New York, she will in all likelihood, win the primary.

California has a huge number of delegates and current polls have Hillary Clinton currently ahead. I think California will split between the two candidates with either candidate gaining only a edge in delegate votes. I think that edge will go to Obama.

Illinois is a huge advantage for Obama because that is his home state. It has 185 delegate votes which isn't as many as New York but still a large amount regardless. He will win in a landslide in his home state.

New Jersey is in the metropolitan area which is right next to New York, the home state of Hillary Clinton. I would be shocked if Hillary Clinton didn't also win by a large margin in New Jersey.

Massachusetts: Ok, here we finally get interesting in this primary. Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy recently endorsed Barack Obama as well as John Kerry who is also from that state. With these two powerful endorsements, I think Obama will win the state.

Georgia is similar to South Carolina in that it has a large African American population. This bodes well for Obama who did well with the black vote in South Carolina where he won by more than 10 percentage points. Obama should win here as well.

Arkansas is the home state of Bill Clinton where he was Governor and Hillary Clinton served beside him. They are both from the state and have homes, friends and relatives there. Hillary will win in a landslide in Arkansas which has 47 delegates.

As you can see this will be one of the closest primaries on the Democratic side in history. Remaining states that I have yet to mention include: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, CT, Delaware, Idaho, Kansas, MN, MI, ND, OK, TN and UT. In states in the South like Alabama, Georgia, Missouri and Kansas, Obama should win because of the African American vote although it will be close. Hillary Clinton will do well in the west and Midwest.

Altogether this race may boil down to a dozen or so votes. I think Hillary Clinton has a slight advantage with the states that have large amounts of delegates and the combination of both Hillary and Bill against Obama is a huge advantage. Hillary Clinton will emerge as your Democratic nominee.

On the GOP side, it will also be a tight race. After tonight, Rudy Giuliani will curse out his advisers for coming up with quite possibly the dumbest campaign strategy ever. He didn't campaign in any early primary states; lost all momentum he had when he was the national front runner and had large amounts of money, and now finds himself third in the Florida polls. Either McCain or Romney will win Florida.

On the Republican side, the delegate counts are different because each state has a lot less delegates. Nevertheless, the states mentioned above that have significantly more amounts of delegates still holds true on the Republican side. California has 173 delegates, NY has 101, Illinois has 70, NJ has 52 delegates.

This race will also boil down to money. Simply put, Romney is a billionaire and can use his own wealth to put up commercials and do mailings to people, McCain doesn't have enough money to do that. Currently, the number one issue in polls has been the economy, which also is currently being debated in legislation in Congress during this coming week. Romney's strongest issue is the economy and McCain is weak on the economy. Say what you will about Romney being a flip flopper, but he is strong on the economy.

With that being said, John McCain will emerge victorious from this race.

Reason #1: Republicans know McCain is the best choice to beat Obama or Hillary in the presidential election. McCain appeals to independent voters and has the experience from the Senate. He is also likable and won't get killed for being a flip flopper which Romney will face, just like John Jerry faced in the last presidential election.

Reason #2: The only state primaries Romney has won he has had connections towards: Think about it. Romney won Michigan because he was born there and his dad was governor. He won Nevada because of the huge Mormon population. He won Wyoming because he was the only person to campaign there since it has so few delegates. Romney has yet to prove he can win a state that he doesn't have ties towards and people recognize that as well.

Reason #3: its McCain's turn: McCain lost the party nominee in 2000 to President Bush. McCain has the seniority and in the Republican Party, that means something.

Reason #4: McCain is more likable: A lot people dislike Romney and McCain comes off as a likable guy.

John McCain will emerge as the Republican nominee for the right to face Hillary Clinton in the 2008 election.