Horserace Rankings - the Democrats

The order from most likely to win the Democratic nomination to least likely to win the Democratic nomination. Momentum direction in parenthesis. Republican rankings coming soon. Like the BCS, these rankings are generally retarded, unfounded in reality, but thankfully no computer component was used.

1) Hillary Clinton (down)

Though Iowa is looking more and more precarious for her by the day, she is still ahead in the other three early states, and has a huge lead in some of the February 5th states (ex. +26 in California, +31 in New York). Nationally, she still holds a large lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards. However, something must be causing her some alarm, as she has shifted her tone from ignoring her opponents to an all out attack on Barack Obama, who has been leading in Iowa according to three of the last five polls.

2) Barack Obama (up)

Where it matters, Obama is doing well. As I mentioned above, he's taken the lead in Iowa in three of the last five polls. In the previous 11 months, only 3 polls, all outliers, showed him in the lead, so this is definitely important. He's narrowed the gap in New Hampshire to the single digits, and, most importantly in my mind, seems to finally be taking the lead with African Americans in South Carolina. So far, he's responded well to the attacks from Hillary, even launching a new rapid response website, Hillary Attacks to respond to her allegations.

Will Obama be able to withstand the heat? All of his eggs are in one basket, Iowa, and to a lesser extent, South Carolina. If he doesn't win both of those states, it could be over.

3) John Edwards (up)

Edwards was playing the role of attack dog for a few weeks. He has since stopped, now staying above the fray (notable exception - in debates, where he's been the sharpest in taking Hillary on). Like Obama, all his eggs are in the Iowa basket, but to a greater extent. A weak showing in Iowa will finish Edwards, who's not showing much strength in South Carolina, which he won back in 2004.

Edwards has released information during a media conference call claiming to have the strongest organization in Iowa, stating that he has precinct captains in 86% of the precincts. However, I'm skeptical, as to why his campaign released this information - now his opponents know the extent of his organization, and this might be an attempt to create an illusion of strength to ward of supporters slipping to other candidates. It might be a sign of weakness, without any other numbers to compare this to, it's anyones guess.

4) Bill Richardson (down)

Richardson hasn't really had much momentum since the summer, when his "interview" ads went on the air and bumped him up to double digits. He's still below the 15% threshhold for Iowa, and lately has been faltering a bit. However, he apparently does have a strong organization (personally, I have some doubts) and still might be able to create a surprise in Iowa or New Hampshire. I keep him at third because he still shows relative strength in three of the first four states, Iowa, NH, and also in Nevada.

5) Joe Biden (up)

Joe Biden has broken away from his colleague, Chris Dodd, as the statesmen of the Senate. Whether he can be the Kerry of 2008 is yet to be seen. He hasn't articulated why he's more electable than any of the major candidates, and often comes of as being bitter at being behind lesser experienced candidates. I don't think he will overtake Richardson on caucus night. Iowa is his only chance to break into the top tier.

6) Chris Dodd (even)

He moved his family to Iowa. I doubt carpetbagging will get him much support here. The Biden/Dodd jumble is over, with Biden taking the clear lead as the experienced Senator, and Dodd is now fighting Kucinich and Gravel for irrelevency.

7) Dennis Kucinich

Is he even trying this time? Doesn't seem like it...

8) Mike Gravel (lost)

I thought he was done, then he showed up in Iowa for the NPR debate. Where've you been, Mike? And I don't mean his lack exposure in the media. He's made the least campaign appearances of any candidate, with almost no public events and no web presence. eight events in New Hampshire = his most active state?