Hortonizing: The Next Willie Horton Ad

In the 2008 presidential election, and with the massive volume of information and disinformation at our fingertips via the Internet, it is likely that before the end of this election cycle we'll have some serious mudslinging. Few mud pies thrown in history, however, were as effective as the Willie Horton ad campaign directed against Massachusetts governor Michael Dukakis by his opponent George H. W. Bush in 1998.

There are many contenders for the next possible victim of this sort of attack, with Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani leading the pack; as both are front-runners in the coming elections, it seems very likely indeed we'll see another round of Horton-style ads.

The Background: How The Willie Horton Ad Campaign Happened

The Horton ads were based on a program Dukakis had championed, enabling even violent criminals out of prison on weekend-pass work release programs. While the program worked safely for the majority of participants, one is always playing roulette when tinkering with the judicial process. Dukakis did not initiate this program, but he defended it, going so far as to veto a bill passed by the Massachusetts legislature that was designed to eliminate it.

On the other side of the bars was Willie Horton. This man, whose violent murder of a gas station attendant during a robbery had led to a life sentence without the possibility of parole, was released on this program and chose not to return to his life behind bars, probably because he really didn't have anything to lose by making a break for it. He left the state of Massachusetts for Maryland, where nearly a year later in 1986 he held an engaged couple prisoner for days while he repeatedly raped the woman. Horton was again sentenced to life in prison, but the Maryland judge refused to return him to Massachusetts on the grounds that he didn't want to take the chance that Massachusetts would again release him on furlough.

The Willie Horton Ads

Dukakis was first attacked by fellow Democrat Al Gore on the basis of the Willie Horton fiasco, but it played little part in the Democrat elections. When Dukakis became the nominee, however, the George H.W. Bush campaign picked the issue up with vigor. It was brought up in several stump speeches, but not until September 1988 did it make its way into commercials, the first round put together by a Republican PAC. The Bush campaign later put together their own Revolving Door campaign, asking if America were ready for a "revolving door" that allowed criminals to walk into and out of prison at will.

The effectiveness of the ads was proven when the Presidential race, already in the homestretch, was reduced to a single-issue campaign. Bush won easily though he had been running slightly behind in the polls prior to the attacks. Despite evidence of some irregularity in how the ads were done - first by a PAC and then by Bush in an effort that might be seen as coordinated - it was too late for the Democrats to undo their damage.

Today's Willie Horton Ads: Most Likely Victims

Hillary Clinton: Far and away, this diva of the political scene is almost certain to suffer from Willie Horton attacks. For one thing, she allowed herself to be identified very closely with her husband's policies while he was in office, and there is still strong criticism among many politicos about his sexuality, his handling of terrorist crises, even his economic policies. Her Horton ads will probably center around two things: the possibility that Katherine Willey was raped by her husband and Hillary helped cover it up, or financial scandals like Whitewater. No other political figure today has so much already-prepared mud to be a target of.

Rudy Giuliani: From his embarrassing cross-dresser pictures (albeit for a party) to his open espousal of strong gay rights and giving documents to illegal immigrants, there's a lot to choose from in Giuliani's political history as well. But here's the problem: most of his baggage is open to attack from Republicans, not Democrats. His weak spots are weak spots in the Republican race for a nominee. A Democrat seeking out his Willie Horton soft spots is going to have a very strong chance of misstepping. If he is Hortonized upon becoming the Republican nominee, it will be interesting to see which side is most damaged.

Barack Obama: This man seems almost squeaky-clean - probably because he has less political history to dredge through than the other leading candidates. Though the Clinton campaign is alleged to have some dirt on him, no one else has even claimed to find any mud on Obama. His weaknesses are inexperience: in office, in public life, even in being a 24-hour politician. He's probably safe.

Mitt Romney: The Willie Horton ads originated from a Massachusetts policy and were aimed at a Massachusetts governor. Romney is also a Massachusetts governor, though from the Republican party and not the Democrat. There is nothing overt right now that seems to lend itself to Hortonizing, but Romney was the conservative governor of possibly the most liberal state in the union. There is no doubt that in some of the compromise decisions he had to make in order to retain power, there will be some Horton material found. The question is really when it will come out, and who will bring it.

John Edwards: among Democrats, Edwards is in a very similar position to Barack Obama: a man of limited political experience, though blessed with a silver tongue. His political career lends little material to a Horton-style attack, but his prior career as a lawyer focusing primarily on big-money personal-injury lawsuits might. He's more likely to be attacked than Obama, but there's not really much there to Hortonize him with.

Mike Huckabee: This emerging front-runner on the Republican side has an interesting past: ordained Baptist minister who graduated from a conservative school of theology, espouser of healthy lifestyles after his 110-lb weight loss, and another ex-governor of Arkansas who came from Hope, Arkansas. Remind you of anyone else recently? Hmmm. Anyway, Huckabee's Willie Horton may be Wayne Dumond, a convicted rapist (who, coincidentally, raped a distant relative of Bill Clinton's) who was released during Huckabee's term and went on to rape and murder a woman in Missouri. Sounds very familiar, no? Anyway, Huckabee was instrumental in reducing the time til Dumond was released by five years, and on making it conditional that Dumond remove himself from Arkansas. Dumond wound up in Kansas City, Missouri. In Huckabee's defense, the initial decision to reduce the sentence came from Jim Guy Tucker, Arkansas's interim governor while Bill Clinton ran for president. Still, Huckabee overrode a parole board decision that Dumond should not be released that, ultimately, proved to be the correct call.

Huckabee is, in my opinion, the most likely to be attacked with a near-clone of the Willie Horton advertising campaign. But that's just my opinion, and I've got lots of those.