How to Avoid 2008 Fantasy Football Busts: 10 Players to Avoid

Every year, no matter how hard you try, it seems you always end up drafting at least one or two (if not four) players whose terrible performance and underachievement manage to make your fantasy team a lot more interesting. In many 2007 fantasy drafts, we see instances of players like Javon Walker, Cadillac Williams and (shudder) Cedric Benson (a high draft pick of my own in one league) all picked before fantasy superstud Tom Brady. No one ever gets these things right, which will make your football season miserable, but I'm sure I've got it this year... I think. Here are ten players to avoid:

1. Larry Johnson, RB, Chiefs - After two phenomenal seasons in Kansas City, Johnson is slowly starting to look a little more like Priest Holmes. Johnson has been an absolute terror for two and a half seasons, which is just about how long Priest Holmes dominated defenses in the same way. His health hasn't been a sure thing ever since he was given 416 carries in 2006. Larry will be overused in Herm Edwards' boring, unimaginative and never successful offensive scheme. Larry will get pounded up the middle behind a shoddy offensive line, and he is going to get beat up very quickly.

2. Carson Palmer, QB Bengals - This isn't to say he won't put up #1 quarterback numbers, but Carson Palmer's numbers may be falling faster than many think. His 26-20 TD/INT ratio may seem decent enough. But when you figure that if you throw out last season's crazy shoot-out with the Browns, Palmer was 20-20 in 15 games, his numbers aren't looking so good. While he'll certainly be aided by T.J. Houshmanzadeh and Chad Johnson, he no longer has Chris Henry up the middle, and an aging Rudi Johnson and unproven Kenny Watson don't inspire awe in terms of their running game. He'll go as the 4^th to 6^th quarterback in many leagues. It's a little closer to 7^th and 10^th.

3. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons - What do you call a guy who is a highly considered fantasy player, but has never had more than 80 carries in a season and is playing on the worst team in football? Michael Turner! Being from Buffalo, I had to spend two years watching Mike Mularkey pretend like he knew how to run an offense (perhaps his career as a tight end makes it hard to think clearly). Another running back hurt by an unimaginative offensive scheme. Jerious Norwood could also get a lot of snaps on 3^rd down, taking away touches and touchdowns.

4. Lee Evans, WR, Bills - Being a Bills fan, this one hurts. A few extremely promising games at the end of the 2006 season, along with the hopes of JP Losman not being terrible, made Lee Evans a popular sleeper pick last season. Unfortunately, he didn't deliver. His amazing 265 yard performance against the Texans in 2006 was the exception, not the rule. Including that game, Evans has only eclipsed 100 yards four times. It's very ordinary. The addition of James Hardy will certainly help, but with Trent Edwards at quarterback, it's going to be a lot of short slants (not that there's anything wrong with that). He'll get a lot of catches, but his yards per catch will go down and there will be little room around the goal line for him to get many opportunities for scores. Between a steady dose of Marshawn Lynch and Hardy's ability to be a big short-yardage target, Evans may struggle to find his place in goal-to-go situations.

5. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers - Taken in the 8^th round in a recent fantasy draft I participated in, Mendenhall is being overhyped. Willie Parker is still the man in Pittshburgh, and guys like TE Heath Miller can attest to the touchdowns that come with Bruce Arians' offense and off of the arm of Ben Roethlisberger. He'll get some TD chances, but not enough to make him more than a spot back-up.

6. Bernard Berrian, WR, Vikings - Last year, the Vikings' leading receiver was Bobby Wade, with a mediocre 54/647/3. Berrian is overrated and overpaid after two middle-of-the-road seasons in Chicago. With a gunslinger like Rex Grossman, Berrian had some opportunities for big plays in 2007, but those days are over. Brad Childress' conservative offense will be certain to do that. Tavaris Jackson will simply be asked not to mess up. Jackson will end up with under 2,000 yards for the season with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor tearing up defenses all day. If a quarterback winds up with under 2,000 yards, guess how well the receiver does.

7. David Garrard, QB, Jaguars - Uber-Conservative Coach + No Receiving Core = David Garrard's 2008 season. It's barely even August, and wide receivers Jerry Porter and Reggie Williams are injured. Garrard only had 10 completions over 30 yards last season. He's a good, accurate, almost mistake-free quarterback, but he's just not a very good fantasy quarterback.

8. New York Giants, ST/Def - Steve Spagnuolo spends another season in New York with his crazy blitz packages. However, Michael Strahan (retirement), Kawika Mitchell (Bills), Reggie Rorbor (Dolphins) and Gibril Wilson (Raiders) are all gone. If the Giants are going to make another Super Bowl run, Eli Manning and company better be able to put enough points on the scoreboard to cover for this shaky defense.

9. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers - As a tight end, he might be the best receiver on San Francisco's roster. However, he has an unproven quarterback in whoever starts (either Shaun Hill or Alex Smith), he's a poor route runner, and he has issues with his hands and with mental mistakes. He also has to deal with Mike Martz, who has never had a tight end flourish in any of his wide receiver-centric offensive schemes.

10. New England Patriots, ST/Def - While still a Top 10 fantasy defense, New England's D is being drafted much higher than they should. The walls always appear like they are closing in on Bill Belichick. Adalius Thomas is the only decent LB they have, and a suitable replacement for Asante Samuel has yet to be found. I should know better than to bet against the Patriots (unless David Tyree is involved), but I'm going to do it yet again.

There they are. Draft at your own risk. Good luck, and have fun!