How to Bet on Major League Baseball and Win: Part 2

In the first installment of the gambler's edge series, How to Bet Major League Baseball and Win, I discussed the differences between betting baseball and football and briefly touched on betting game totals. Today we will take a closer look at those totals and the "over" versus the "under."

A Refresher - The total is the number set for the combined score of both teams. You can either bet under the number, or over. The odds set reflect the effectiveness of the starting pitchers. In other words, if you have two first-rate pitchers starting the game, the "Under" will be favored. But I like to look for conditions that will justify betting the "Over" and plus odds.

For this parlay I have team, and total. (See ticket) Detroit was favored with their ace Justin Verlander against ace Mark Buehrle and the Chicago White Sox. Buehrle got roughed up on opening day, but a pitcher of ace caliber is going to bounce back, and I bet on it. Plus, Chicago had won its two previous games against Detroit, and was going for the sweep. They bulked up their bats in the off-season with the addition of Nick Swisher (who, incidentally hit a leadoff homerun to start the game). I felt comfortable taking Chicago to win.

I did have some reservations on betting the over on a total of 9 however. The under was a -125 favorite which means that you bet 1.25 to win 1.00 and more than a few thought it would be a low scoring game. The conditions were right, it was a chilly night, the wind was blowing slightly in, and heavy Buehrle sinkerballs were sawing bats in half. The score was 3 to 1 Chicago's favor after 5 innings, and I started to worry a little bit about getting over nine runs. But in the top of the 6^th, Verlander did not do so well, the sky opened up and six runs crossed the plate making the score 9-1, and giving me my Over. The final score was Chicago 13, Detroit 2 (Detroit's bullpen has issues too). I'd say Buehrle made his corrections, as any top pitcher should. Detroit hurlers however, are having an altogether different start to the season; at the time of this writing the team is 0-6.

Over VS Under
I like to bet the "Over" on baseball game totals of 8, or 8 ½. (see ticket 2) The reason for this is pure and simple mathematics (along with the scoring dynamics of a nine-inning game). Say you're watching a game, and at some point the score is tied up at 4 to 4. A baseball game cannot end in a tie, (except the 2002 all star game) so you are guaranteed one more run will be added for a total of 9 and a win. Betting over a set game total of 9 works in the same scenario, but will only give you a tie, or push. An extra run will be needed for the win. But a push is far better than a loss.

The Half Point
A bookmaker adds the half point to a betting line, or total to eliminate the tie, and when betting the Over, I prefer to avoid them, especially when they are attached to an odd number, such as 9. I had the misfortune where in exactly the circumstances described above. I lost the Over by a half point when a 4-4 tie was broken in the bottom of the ninth by a single run. On the other hand this works to your advantage when betting the "Under."

It's still gambling, but if you know a little about the teams you are betting on and against, it will give you a solid advantage. I have put together a few valuable resources that I use when deciding on a baseball bet. I touched on a couple of these earlier in part one of the series, but have added more sites for further analysis.

Pitching Match Ups
Always know your starting pitchers and there is nothing better than a scouting report to tell you how a pitcher fared in his last game, and win loss statistics against the current team he faces.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/probable_pitchers.jsp
(Scouting report at mlb)
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/probables/today/
(Stats on pitchers last three games at SI)

Bullpen Statistics
It's good to know if a team has a bullpen that can hold a lead after the starting pitcher has left the game. And if I'm only betting the Over and don't care who wins, having both teams with shaky bullpens can help score runs. Very rarely does a starting pitcher go a complete nine innings, and in such instances the game will usually go the under. Base on ball statistics are also useful as the runs scored by a player who reached base via the walk are not reflected in a pitcher's earned run average (ERA).
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams
(Just click on the "stats" link underneath the team you wish to investigate)

Good pitching always beats good hitting, but you can't win a game without scoring a run so knowing if your team has a firm batting lineup wouldn't be a bad idea. All of these statistics for every team, and player are at this site.

The Weather
I like to know if the wind is gusting out, or into a ballpark when betting a total. A rain-out could also cancel your bet because even if a game goes the requisite 5 full innings and a winner is decided, there is only "action" on a total wager if the game goes 9 innings or more. If the game does not go the distance your money is refunded. This could go to your advantage if betting the Under and the score is above the total at the time the game is called. You could dodge a bullet. This site link gives the weather forecast for all of the day's games, everyday.
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/wx/weather.htm

The Park
Every major league ballpark is either pitcher, or hitter friendly. This is also nice to know when deciding on which way to bet the total.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Overall, statistics and information is helpful, but be careful not to overdo it, it doesn't always work out like it does on paper. Sometimes the human factor, and gambling luck determine the outcome. Pitchers have been known to throw wild; a bad hop could cause an infield hit, or error. Often players and teams fall into slumps. Teams will go on winning streaks. You can second-guess yourself all day if you want to. Gut feelings are fine, but having some basic knowledge to back it up can't hurt.

Good wagerings, and I hope you found this information useful. In upcoming articles I will cover betting the first 5 innings of a ballgame, the benefit of "listing" your pitchers, and when to increase your payoff with the run line.

Play Ball!