How to Bet and Win When Gambling on Major League Baseball: Part 3

When betting the favorite there are many occasions that the odds won't return enough for me to justify making the bet. When this happens, I bet the team on the "Points Line" and change the odds from that of a team favored, to an underdog (if I believe my team will win by two or more runs).

This is the line from the game on the first leg of a 3-team round robin parlay (see ticket 1) that I bet on 4/11/08. (I'm not showing the Total's odds here because we didn't make that bet on the game.)

MONEY LINE..........POINTS LINE
Colorado +135.......+1.5 -170
Arizona -140............- 1.5 +150

The Points Line Bet (PLB) allows you to give 1.5 runs to the other team. Taking a look at Arizona, a straight Money Line Bet (MLB) at -140 means you have to bet $1.40 to win $1.00. I really want more than .60 cents against my dollar so I gave Colorado 1.5 runs to start the game and bet Arizona on the Points Line. This is risky, and many people don't like going into a baseball game down by 1.5 runs. I don't spot what the big deal is as long as you know what your doing. Unlike football where (unless you specify the Money Line) you have a spread to cover, when betting baseball you automatically get the money line, so you need to state that you want your bet on the Points Line. That being said, I have adjusted my payout to return a $1.50 for each dollar bet by using the Points Line. I really don't see the sense in betting an underdog on the Points Line. Anyone who took the Rockies and +1.5 runs PLB was getting .30 cents on their dollar back if the Rockies had either straight up won the game, or lost by only 1 run.

And if you bet a team on the Points Line, you better know your pitchers. Colorado had their ace Jeff Francis on the mound, and Arizona had their ace, Brandon Webb. Why would I give 1.5 runs to the Rockies when they had their ace on the mound?

One: Arizona was on a 6-game winning streak.
Two: Three of those games were against the Rockies in Colorado, yeah, the Rockies got swept on their home turf.
Three: Arizona got swept by the Rockies in the NL playoffs last year and they've been out for payback, (and getting it).
Four: Most importantly, the pitching match-ups. Francis wasn't looking like an ace as he struggled against the Diamondbacks five days earlier in Colorado giving up five runs on 12 hits and a walk in 6 1/3 innings, also - - Brandon Webb is arguably one of the best pitchers out there today.

The final score was Arizona 8, Rockies 2.

NOTE: When making this type of bet (PLB) the pitchers are automatically listed instead of the teams (see ticket). Both pitchers had to start the game. If one pitcher, or the other (or both) didn't start, the bet would have "No Action," my money would have been refunded, and my ticket would have dropped from a 3-team round robin parlay, to a 2-team parlay.

I discuss the 3-team round robin parlay at length in my article "Betting the 3-team round robin parlay."

BETTING THE FIRST 5 FULL INNINGS:
This bet is the equivalent of betting the first half of a football game. There is no points line for the first 5 innings, only a Money Line, and Total. (last two legs of ticket 1)

MONEY LINE..............TOTAL
Oakland +145......4 ½ Over -105
Cleveland -155............Under -115

The Oakland A's went into Cleveland fresh from a 3 game sweep of Toronto, in Toronto. They had some momentum. They were a complete game Money Line underdog at +150, and I figured it would be safer to bet them in the first 5 innings than the entire game and the odds were only slightly different at +145 for the first 5. So I took the underdog A's in the first five innings, and was also betting that 5 runs or more would be scored to give me over the combined total of 4 ½ runs for the 5 innings. With my round robin if I missed one, say the A's were ahead, but 4 runs or less was scored in the 5 innings, I still would have gotten a 2-team parlay. That is the dynamic of a 3-team round robin. You can miss one of the three and still win, albeit you'll only break even or so (but that's better than the alternative of losing it all). But I didn't have to worry, at the end of 5 innings the score was Oakland 9, Cleveland 1. Incidentally the A's went on to win the game after Cleveland made it close in the bottom of 8th. Final score A's 9, Indians 7.

There are a few reasons one might want to bet the first five innings of a game. The entire game might not go the distance if there's a chance of rain. Perhaps the team has a less than stellar bullpen and is subject to let games slip away after a starter has worked hard for a lead. Plus, if a game is tied after 5 innings the bet is a push. It's all about knowing the game, and of course, a little luck never hurt. It is gambling after all, and I've lost a bet(s) where the total was 9 for the complete game, and 10 or more runs were scored, but after the first 5 innings the score was only 3 to 1 and I needed over 5 runs for the first five innings. (ticket 2)

NOTE: You cannot parlay the first five innings to the total of the same game. For example I couldn't bet the A's in the first 5 to the "Over" of the entire game, or the "Total" of the first 5 innings to the winner of the entire game.

LISTING YOUR PITCHERS
Listing your pitcher(s) is an advantage that betting football doesn't have. The pitcher is the equivalent of a quarterback and listing either one or both pitchers means that the pitchers listed have to start the game. Say you have a football bet, and for some reason your premier quarterback doesn't start, you could be in trouble. Not so with baseball, there are three options that you have when making a baseball wager.
1 - Action against Action: You don't necessarily care who is pitching.
2 - Pitcher against Action: A wager on or against one specific pitcher regardless of the other starting pitcher. The specified, or named pitcher must start or the wager is deemed "no action."
3 - Pitcher against Pitcher: You list both pitchers, and they both have to start or there is "no action."

You need to specifically state one of these options when making your bet or you will automatically get Action against Action. But, pitchers are automatically listed for Points Line Bets and Over/Under wagers. I most always list both pitchers, unless the team I'm betting against has their ace on the mound. I wouldn't mind if the opposing teams ace didn't start in that case.

Note: Each team's starting pitcher is the guy who throws the first pitch of the game.

That about wraps it up for this series of articles. I hope you have enjoyed and gained some knowledge from this "how to" guide on betting Major League Baseball... and winning. It's a long season with plenty of opportunities to cash in a few winning tickets, and I'll be more than happy to help further by answering any additional questions (or comments) you might have.

Good Wagering, and Play Ball!

Next up on the Gambler's Edge - - Thoroughbred horse racing: The Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, how do you pick a winner? I'll tell you how I do it.