How to Bet and Win on Major League Baseball

In previous articles, I have given advice and detailed my experience gambling on the NFL. Now that the NFL season is finished, it is time to hear the umpire yell, "Batter up!"

Betting on baseball is much the same as betting on football with a few differences. The most notable being that there are 162 regular season games that each team plays, as opposed to 16 for the NFL. This leaves far greater opportunities to pick and choose your spots to cash in.

A more immediate difference is in the way the lines are set. In baseball there is no spread with points to cover, you automatically get the money line match-up when you make a baseball wager. (In football you automatically get the points line.) There is however, a run line (or points line, the old timers call it the 10 cent line) and you can give or take 1 ½ runs. I'll explain the use (or non-use) of this as we dissect my parlay ticket from Major League Baseball opening day.

As opposed to a straight bet, a parlay combines 2 or more wagers on the same ticket, and each win goes towards the next wager, (or leg) of the parlay and increases the payout - - as opposed to making two straight bets. I have a two-team parlay with each leg at even money on a five-dollar buy in, or bet (the old timer's call it a "bind"). Regular parlay payouts are printed on the ticket, and there are a number of "Parlay Calculators" available on the web for more complicated parlays such as the three team round robin. There is a formula for getting it done the old fashioned way, old timers call it a pain in the ass.

The 2008 season started a bit weird. The Red Sox and Oakland A's played their regular season opener against each other in Japan on March 25^th and a second game on the 26^th. All the other teams were still playing exhibition games and when the Red Sox and Oakland got stateside, they went back into exhibition games themselves. So March 30^th the regular season starts again with Atlanta playing at the Washington Nationals - - then on the 31^st, everyone else starts. There's always one opening day showcase game played before the season starts in earnest the next day.

For the first leg of my parlay I bet one of the day's exhibition games. I normally don't bet exhibition games but I saw that San Francisco was a -120 favorite against Oakland, and the question isn't, will the Giants finish in the NL West basement, but how many games back will they be? So I jumped on Oakland at even money. They won 7 to 2, no problem. But figuring out what to do with the opening day game for the second leg of my parlay was more of a challenge.

The Atlanta Braves were a -155 favorite, I figured they were going to win but I don't like the payout of betting a dollar fifty-five to win one dollar. Now, here's where the "run line" comes into play. I could give 1 ½ runs to the Nationals and get the odds of -115. But that's no deal; I'm looking for more than even money when I have to win my game by 2 runs. And what if Atlanta doesn't even win. The answer is simple - - bet on the game's total instead of the game's winner.

The total is the number set for the combined score of both teams. You can either bet under the number, or over. The total set for the Braves/Nationals game was 8 ½ (the half point takes the tie away). Not too high, and I usually look for the over when betting totals. So what influenced me to go with the under?

The weather - - It was under 50 degrees at game time and balls aren't prone to go flying out of the park as they do in warmer temperatures. Also the wind was blowing in at 5-10 mph. (I have the website listed in the supporting links. It's a great tool to use when deciding on a total)
The pitchers - - On opening day each team puts their ace on the mound, and barring a nightmarish opening day meltdown, I wouldn't expect them to give up a lot of runs.
The park - - All major league ballparks have a factor that makes them either hitter, or pitcher friendly. But this is the first game played in the Washington Nationals new stadium and it will be a while before statistics can be compiled. The buzz is that it will slightly favor pitchers due to its dimensions and foul territory, though it is smaller than JFK

The Nationals beat the Braves in the bottom of the ninth with a walk-off homerun and a final score of 3 to 2 giving me the under, and a winning parlay ticket.

Some may say I had outside help winning this ticket. After I decided what my parlay would be, my wife gave me a ride to the casino. When I opened the car door to get out, there was a penny right there when I looked down. It was shiny, and it was bank side up, (that means you've got money coming, heads up is just general good luck). I put the coin in my pocket, went in and made my bet, and then before I went home I decided to play some nickels - - I got four wild deuces and won 50 dollars. And later my parlay wins? Luck? Not for the parlay, oh no, that was skill alone - - the coin's luck likely ran dry after it got me the 4 deuces.

Gambling luck can go either way, but knowledge and experience is the surest thing.

Play Ball!